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Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

AlaskaDenise

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
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</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><!-- BODY BEGIN -->Science Daily ? Recent findings from study of incentives, decision-making, and influenza epidemics may offer guidance on public health policy. A team of three researchers at the University of California in Los Angeles, two of them physicists, have found that while family-based vaccination incentives fail to prevent severe epidemics, a program that allows individuals three free annual vaccinations once they pay for the first may prove effective.<!-- Originally posted on ScienceDaily 2007-09-05 -->



The study modeled three scenarios in which individuals were assumed to make their decisions on whether to vaccinate based on past experience. In the first, no incentives were offered. Vaccination rates would increase following years of epidemic and abruptly drop as people began to skip vaccinations, trusting that their peers would remain healthy. When the proportion of the population vaccinated against influenza is sufficiently low, severe epidemics occur, driving the vaccination rate up again the next year.

In the second and third scenarios, an incentive factored into the decision-making process. One possible incentive offers free vaccination for family members once the head of the household paid for his or hers. Counter-intuitively, the family incentive resulted in more frequent epidemics than the incentive-free case.

The third scenario offered an incentive to individuals, allowing them some number of free vaccinations after they paid for the first year. Above a certain threshold number of free years, the researchers found that severe epidemics do not occur. Using parameters that they believe to be realistic, they found that a minimum of three free years of vaccination may prevent influenza epidemics.

Forthcoming article in Physical Review E is authored by Romulus Breban, Raffaele Vardavas, and Sally Blower
Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by American Physical Society.
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http://www.dentalplans.com/articles/24502/
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

"When the proportion of the population vaccinated against influenza is sufficiently low, severe epidemics occur"

We see that ordinary regular influenza take many lives also.
Why not include another scenario in the study:

The 4th scenario:
mandatory vaccinations
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

tropical;99826.......Why not include another scenario in the study: The 4th scenario: mandatory vaccinations[/quote said:
There would need to be sufficient production capacity. Global trivalent capacity is currently 350 million doses.

.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

How about mandatory vaccinations for school children?
Their parents or guardians, and all school personell, and all government employees could pay half price.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

Since children are both the primary spreaders as well as the most likely to die in a pandemic, I like mandatory shots for kids.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

not globally, just for some cities, for a study.
Test some scenarios. Including quarantine.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

If the meaning is an start to resolve the problem, at least must be implemented the "Shannon" suggestion:

"Since children are both the primary spreaders as well as the most likely to die in a pandemic, I like mandatory shots for kids."

From "Alaska Denise":
There would need to be sufficient production capacity. Global trivalent capacity is currently 350 million doses.

It is true, but:

It is obvious that this is a question of money, because if the (world, federal, state or local) "society" wants, than in short term can be builted enaugh vaccine factories (for ordinary flu) for the whole world population needs, even with obsolete eggs technology.
For now there are enaugh quantity of eggs in the world.

If at this web site partecipate somebody enaugh influent to suggest a change of the production quantity policy, now is a time to suggest for the next flu season (2008/09).
Maybe by the computer technology we can finaly simulate on digits the various animal responses.
If the technology applicated will be new, than will be enaugh vaccine factories even if than start some novel pandemic virus.

If some critics says that this is throwing money, than look at the quantity of various cosmetics, and other non-vital preparates.
Can an evoluted society lack of preparing enaugh vital medicaments and vaccines?
If the meaning is saving life, no.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

but could the money be spent to save more expected lifes ?
it's always the question of priority.

Current flu-vaccination is not very effective
and had been questioned.

Vaccinating kids instead of old people had been suggested
and should be tested.

Or even (ab-)use the capacities and vaccinate for H5N1 instead.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

"Vaccinating kids instead of old people had been suggested and should be tested."

I think the meaning was mandatory vaccination for all (at present) priority groups (med., care, mil, pub, ..., old, chronical) plus the school kids (students also) population (they are concentrated in close space, and spread quickly the illness around, and at home).

The problem of movements: planes, subways, buses and trains, remains insolved.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

From "FluWiki", Summary of News for September 10, 2007:

UK
? Flu pandemic vaccine considered
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/isle_of_man/6986912.stm

news_logo.gif

Flu pandemic vaccine considered
Plans to vaccinate all Isle of Man residents against pandemic flu are being considered by the government.

The new strategy is under serious consideration by the Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS).
Fears of a pandemic have arisen because of outbreaks of the H5N1 bird flu strain in south east Asia and Europe.
The island's acting director of public health, Dr Parameshwaran Kishore, said a pre-pandemic vaccine would have to be based on the as-yet unknown virus.
But he said it could make a significant difference.
"If we almost sort of postulate a virus that is likely to be closely related, then we can inject the whole population with this particular vaccine.
"Even if it is only slightly successful, the overall benefit would be significant." The World Health Organisation (WHO) has said a pandemic is most likely to strike in the next two to three years.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/europe/isle_of_man/6986912.stm

Published: 2007/09/10 09:53:49 GMT
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

I do not know any organization or individual/expert who will give a date or time frame for the start of a pandemic. It is simply unknown.

This must be a misquote.
 
Re: Which Incentives to Prevent Flu Epidemics Would Be Effective?

If confirmed by UK-DHSS, seems that the next statements are more important:

The new strategy is under serious consideration by the Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS).
...
The island's acting director of public health, Dr Parameshwaran Kishore, said a pre-pandemic vaccine would have to be based on the as-yet unknown virus.
But he said it could make a significant difference.
"If we almost sort of postulate a virus that is likely to be closely related, then we can inject the whole population with this particular vaccine.
"Even if it is only slightly successful, the overall benefit would be significant."
 
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