Re: Wellington hospitalisations higher than Victorias, 29 Wellington 33 Hawkes Bay
Swine flu: Wellington cases top Victoria
By MICHAEL FOX - Stuff.co.nz
Last updated 16:23 02/07/2009
Wellington is seeing more people hospitalised with swine flu than Australia's swine flu capital Victoria, with around 30 people currently admitted to its hospitals.
Victoria, with a population of about five million had 18 patients in hospital last Friday, compared with Wellington's present number of almost 30 from a population of around 400,000.
However, Wellington microbiologist Dr Tim Blackmore said the timing of the spike in infections, with New Zealand successfully containing the virus for almost two months, could be making the figures appear worse than they were.
"It's obviously been a brutal winter and the numbers here are going up very quickly but that's probably not surprising," he said.
"If it was starting to slow down in Victoria then our numbers of patients on a particular day, compared to Victoria may be out of step. What the long term picture might be we don't know yet but certainly at the moment there's a lot of new cases emerging in the community and proportionally we're seeing quite a few in the hospital."
While instances of swine flu in New Zealand continue to increase, statistics show more that there have been 4,300 cases and nine deaths reported in Australia compared to 825 cases and no deaths here.
However, accurate records of confirmed cases are no longer kept and the total number is likely to be much higher.
Mr Blackmore told AAP that this was the "tip of the iceberg and it's looking moderately severe to us."
"The hospital services are starting to struggle. We've never seen admission rates like this before and unfortunately it's only going to get worse."
Sixty-nine people have been hospitalised in the Wellington region. Mr Blackmore said they were now only testing those who were believed to be in a more serious position.
He added that the majority of people were only in hospital for a day or two and asthma was playing a significant role in hospitalisations.
"There's a proportion of people who are coming in with primary influenza pneumonia - viral pneumonia - but most have asthma or something like that underneath it ... to make doctors more concerned about their health to have them in hospital."
He said the average age of people being admitted was early-20s and there were "quite a few" children.
While it was difficult to know exactly how many people had been admitted in total, "it's obviously something that we're going to look at more carefully."
The condition of the 30-year-old woman in intensive care in Wellington Hospital was today down-graded from life-threatening to serious. A woman in her early twenties is still in a critical condition in Hawke's Bay Hospital though it is not known whether she had any pre-existing medical conditions.
National Influenza Centre head Dr Sue Huang said that New Zealand's links with Australia, which sent more than one million visitors here last year, had made containing the virus more difficult.
"Once the virus established in Australia and because of the links New Zealand has with Australia ... it became really difficult to contain."
Meanwhile, swine flu is taking over from seasonal flu as the most commonly diagnosed influenza in the more serious cases this year.
Mr Blackmore said of the 294 positive influenza tests carried out in Wellington since June 23, only 25 were seasonal influenza and the rest were the new strain.
Since then, the lowest number of swine flu cases diagnosed in Wellington daily was ten and the highest was 37.
However, he said the ratio was about even in Auckland, with Christchurch "somewhere in the middle"
"The interesting thing about influenza is it does different patterns in different communities."
Maori and Pacific Islanders had an infection rate about 10 times higher than other ethnicities.
Mr Blackmore said he believed the number of infections could peak in a "few weeks" before easing, though the level of preparedness on behalf of health authorities meant they were well placed to cope.
"I think overall for New Zealand it's going to go on for a long time," he warned.
Ms Huang said they processed more than 1000 samples from suspected cases last week, which confirmed that swine flu was becoming more prevalent than other influenzas.
She said all tests for Tamiflu resistance and virus mutations had so far come back negative.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/2560034/Swine-flu-Wellington-cases-top-Victoria