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Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-39 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 34)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-16 (Three Pediatric Deaths; Total 18)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-16 (Three Pediatric Deaths; Total 18)

2012 links



http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrmort.asp

New York:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...wr_location=New+York+City,+N.Y.&mmwr_table=4A
Boston:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...012&mmwr_location=Boston,+Mass.&mmwr_table=4A
Atlanta: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...2012&mmwr_location=Atlanta,+Ga.&mmwr_table=4A
El Paso: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...012&mmwr_location=El+Paso,+Tex.&mmwr_table=4A



USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...r_year=2012&mmwr_location=TOTAL&mmwr_table=4A
New England: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...=2012&mmwr_location=New+England&mmwr_table=4A
Mid-Atlantic:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...012&mmwr_location=MID.+ATLANTIC&mmwr_table=4A
S.Atlantic: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...=2012&mmwr_location=S.+ATLANTIC&mmwr_table=4A
W.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...2012&mmwr_location=W.N.+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
W.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...2012&mmwr_location=W.S.+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
E.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...2012&mmwr_location=E.N.+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
E.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...2012&mmwr_location=E.S.+CENTRAL&mmwr_table=4A
Mountain: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...ear=2012&mmwr_location=Mountain&mmwr_table=4A
Pacific: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...year=2012&mmwr_location=Pacific&mmwr_table=4A







-------------------------------

adjusted (non-reports are estimated) MMWR-deaths
summer=weeks 17-42
winter= weeks 43-52(44-53) and weeks 1-16 the next year

year,season,all,>64,45-64,25-44,1-24,<1,P+I,(P+I)-ratio



Code: 
 1996 summer: 307475  203718  59419  28283  8543  7064  17550  571 
 1996 winter: 332842  230047  61265  26179  7985  6884  24006  721 

 1997 summer: 301458  202877  58272  24757  8425  6700  17550  582 
 1997 winter: 333799  232648  62022  23985  7743  6856  24565  736 

 1998 summer: 304827  206072  59378  23972  8034  6909  17997  590 
 1998 winter: 335000  234653  62437  23420  7466  6633  24650  736 

 1999 summer: 299149  202258  59424  22890  7676  6644  17665  591 
 1999 winter: 338855  235737  65075  23494  7528  6827  28338  836 

 2000 summer: 307059  207499  60879  23305  8248  6729  20272  660 
 2000 winter: 333287  230587  64882  23244  7687  6586  24776  743 

 2001 summer: 310175  209276  62242  23690  8221  6519  20015  645 
 2001 winter: 329312  224959  65596  23919  7929  6675  24790  753 

 2002 summer: 301505  200155  63219  22956  8213  6686  18887  626 
 2002 winter: 322491  218949  65895  22358  8184  6738  23474  728 

 2003 summer: 294364  194589  62689  21859  8027  6459  18563  631 
 2003 winter: 337608  231020  69759  21916  7572  6652  26549  786 

 2004 summer: 291705  193071  63947  20536  7705  6267  18236  625 
 2004 winter: 321697  218941  68521  20444  7039  6367  24608  765 

 2005 summer: 290894  190895  65325  20334  7737  6451  18054  621 
 2005 winter: 315906  212137  69270  20466  7341  6492  22391  709 

 2006 summer: 292471  191080  66763  20218  7674  6535  17388  595 
 2006 winter: 314254  209872  70410  19962  7221  6675  21393  681 

 2007 summer: 290717  189377  66462  20344  7644  6708  17437  600 
 2007 winter: 316904  213532  70453  18906  6933  6895  23485  741 

 2008 summer: 289320  188522  67685  19186  7256  6492  18283  632 
 2008 winter: 312840  209294  71360  18841  6748  6503  21836  698 

 2009 summer: 288347  187476  68618  18802  7070  6247  18407  638 
 2009 winter: 305194  205143  70031  17682  6367  5693  22924  751 

 2010 summer: 280336  184912  66487  16698  6564  5459  17934  640 
 2010 winter: 309626  209420  71224  17349  6217  5272  23473  758 

 2011 summer: 284801  187836  67573  17300  6562  5401  18333  644 
 2011 winter: 298126  201173  68154  16950  6258  5420  20862  700 

 2012 summer: (274070 ... 642 )


total final deaths as reported by NCHS:
summer=May-Oct
winter=Nov-Apr next year

Code: 
year s(NCHS) w(NCHS)  w/s  sM     wM       w/s psM pwM pw/ps psN pwN pw/ps
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1996 1094858 1227320 1.120 307475 332842 1.082 571 721 1.262 303 439 1.449 
1997 1097784 1236451 1.126 301458 333799 1.107 582 736 1.264 311 463 1.487 
1998 1110243 1259356 1.134 304827 335000 1.098 590 736 1.247 316 340 1.076 
1999 1119077 1260203 1.126 299149 338855 1.132 591 836 1.414 204 312 1.531 
2000 1142182 1265075 1.107 307059 333287 1.085 660 743 1.125 216 284 1.314 
2001 1167124 1270837 1.088 310175 329312 1.061 645 753 1.167 228 302 1.322 
2002 1161116 1261698 1.086 301505 322491 1.069 626 728 1.162 225 275 1.219 
2003 1170091 1292784 1.104 294364 337608 1.146 631 786 1.245 223 300 1.346 
2004 1145411 1283584 1.120 291705 321697 1.102 625 765 1.224 209 286 1.368 
2005 1156150 1266169 1.095 290894 315906 1.085 621 709 1.141 207 260 1.253 
2006 1167154 1266023 1.084 292471 314254 1.074 595 681 1.144 200 243 1.216 
2007 1161398 1306103 1.124 290717 316904 1.090 600 741 1.235 189 253 1.338 
2008 1167596 1264179 1.082 289320 312840 1.081 632 698 1.104 187 223 1.196 
2009 1177474               288347 305194 1.058 638 751 1.177 191 215 1.125 
2010                       280336 309626 1.104 640 758 1.184
2011                       284801 298126 1.046 644 700 1.086
                                    x1    x2        x3  x4



so we have the lowest adjusted 122-city winter-mortality (x1) since 1996, since when the data are
available at CDC-wonder. But the population of these 122-cities did presumably decline since 1996,
dying people are leaving the big cities.
Then we have the lowest 122-cities winter/summer draths-ratio (x2), which is unaffected by
such movements (unless they are just seasonal)
Then we had a very low P+I ratio this winter in the 122 cities (x3) and the lowest P+I winter/summer
ratio since 1996 (x4)


the MMWR P+I numbers are larger than the NCHS numbers, since they include all
death-certificates, where pneumonia or influenza is mentioned, even if only as secondary condition.
The NCHS numbers include only those which have pneumonia or influenza as primary
reason of death.
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-19 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 24)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-19 (Two Pediatric Deaths; Total 24)

"dramatic" decline in p+I mortality

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2011-2012/images/picurve19.gif

------------------------------------------




USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_rep...r_year=2012&mmwr_location=TOTAL&mmwr_table=4A




Europe: http://www.euromomo.eu/results/pooled_images/Pooled-zscore.png



Code: 
week All >=65 45-64 25-44 1-24 <1  P+I
---------------------------------------------
01 10,808  7,500  2,354  566  206  165  781  
02 12,220  8,233  2,859  654  273  195  922  
03 11,259  7,653  2,548  625  211  219  878  
04 12,252  8,220  2,902  699  223  204  917  
05 12,683  8,516  2,904  748  278  232  923  
06 11,207  7,573  2,604  612  225  192  754  
07 11,799  7,993  2,712  645  233  216  857  
08 10,950  7,411  2,541  598  220  179  832    760
09 11,934  8,011  2,791  649  235  246  901  
10 11,653  7,906  2,595  689  255  199  855  
11 11,449  7,863  2,523  615  237  207  864  
12 11,426  7,714  2,610  636  264  200  891  
13 10,848  7,259  2,499  652  222  213  778  
14 09,653  6,603  2,160  518  202  170  727  
15 11,054  7,451  2,534  648  228  193  774    700
16 11,028  7,423  2,522  628  250  202  765    694
17 11,465  7,729  2,621  643  251  215  794    693
18 10,361  6,923  2,453  581  206  195  718    693
19 10,707  7,213  2,464  634  210  186  655    612
20 10,728  7,139  2,534  613  229  210  685    639
21 10,709  7,087  2,595  612  228  185  706    659
22 09,228  6,092  2,150  565  228  190  553    599  
23 11,260  7,470  2,676  678  240  192  707    628 
24 10,091  6,648  2,381  631  243  168  634    628
25 10,578  7,070  2,474  634  217  174  646    611
26 10,283  6,783  2,436  632  248  183  675    656
27 08,832  5,883  2,110  492  182  164  539    610
28 10,805  7,071  2,584  664  284  198  644    596
29 10,541  6,915  2,509  659  253  200  592    562
30 10,237  6,650  2,475  642  271  191  575    562
31 10,107  6,657  2,377  604  247  196  585    579
32 10,274  6,743  2,509  602  238  178  588    572
33 10,170  6,715  2,469  604  194  184  616    606
34 10,934  7,157  2,599  692  252  233  609    557
35 10,669  7,137  2,441  660  224  202  594    557
36 09,874  6,452  2,394  622  224  181  588    596
37 11,016  7,312  2,619  642  243  197  691    627
38 10,537  6,994  2,506  583  238  214  648    615
39 11,048  7,423  2,612  598  215  198  691    625
40 10,562  6,995  2,524  621  228  193  623    590
41 10,117  6,788  2,377  580  208  160  636    629
42 11,899  7,969  2,749  696  248  234  679    571
43 09,816  6,570  2,310  568  194  171  638    650  
44 10,336  6,957  2,375  580  229  191  681    659
45 11,348  7,656  2,647  614  228  200  724    638
46 10,724  7,276  2,431  616  208  190  687    641
47 08,773  5,950  1,992  497  161  149  549    626
 

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Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-22 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 26)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-22 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 26)

and when you think deaths are already extraordinarily low ...
then it makes another big drop

how will the CDC-chart look tonight ?

like this:
 

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Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-22 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 26)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-22 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 26)

MMWR Weekly
June 8, 2012

The 2011–12 influenza season was one of the mildest and latest seasons on record. The peak percentage of outpatient visits for ILI (2.4%) was the lowest reported since the system began in its current format in 1997. The peak percentage of visits for ILI during those 14 seasons ranged from 3.2% for the 2002–03 season to 7.7% during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates overall were lower than rates reported during the 2010–11 influenza season, but the relative impact by age group was similar (highest rates in the ≥65 and 0–4 year age groups); both seasons had influenza A (H3N2) viruses predominating and cocirculating with pH1N1 and influenza B viruses. The number of influenza-associated pediatric deaths reported to CDC for the 2011–12 season was the lowest reported since data collection began in the 2004–05 season (range for previous years: 46–348 pediatric deaths), and P&I mortality as reported through the 122 Cities Mortality Reporting System exceeded the epidemic threshold only slightly for a single week. Based on the percentage of specimens testing positive for influenza, the peak of influenza activity for the 2011–12 season, occurring during the week ending March 17, 2012, was the latest since the 1987–88 season, when activity peaked during the week ending March 26, 1988.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6122a4.htm?s_cid=mm6122a4_e
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-29 (One New Pediatric Death; Total 34)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-29 (One New Pediatric Death; Total 34)

Week 29:
1 influenza-associated pediatric death: PA; total 34
P&I deaths: 5.6%

Pertussis beyond historical limits
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6129md.htm?s_cid=mm6129md_w

Also please see:

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. Notes from the Field: Outbreak of Influenza A (H3N2) Virus Among Persons and Swine at a County Fair — Indiana, July 2012
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-29 (One New Pediatric Death; Total 34)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-29 (One New Pediatric Death; Total 34)

MMWR Weekly: Current Volume (2012)


August 10, 2012 / Vol. 61 / No. 31 / Pg. 581 - 604; ND 424 - 437
CE Available

 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-33 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 34)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2011-2012) - Weeks 40-33 (No New Pediatric Deaths; Total 34)

Week 33:
No new influenza-associated pediatric deaths; total 34
P&I deaths: 6.1%

Pertussis continues beyond historical limits
West Nile virus disease cases nearly 4 times what they were this time last year.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_wk.html
 
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