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Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-39 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-19 (Three Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-19 (Three Pediatric Deaths)

To complete the work I begun in the late summer of 2009 I added the figures for the 2010-2011 season, listed by date and by age.
Attached two tables: the first refers to the three main periods, 20th to 39th weeks, 40th to 52nd and from 1st to 19th of the last eight seasons.

The second table gives the cumulative figures ranging from 20th to 19th, with a second table that focuses on the period from the 40th to 19th.



There was a rise in mortality over 65, that in the first pandemic season was at the lowest level. In fact, the cumulative data reported 14,000 more deaths in this age group, compared to the previous year ', that have occurred mainly in the weeks at the end of 2010 and early 2011.

The number of deaths from pneumonia and influenza, 18,072 in the weeks 1-19 of 2011, reached a high level in comparison to previous seasons, surpassed only by the years 2004, 2005 and 2008 which recorded a particularly high number of deaths in older people.
45-64 age group reaches 52,187 deaths, the highest level in comparison to all previous seasons.
The 'high mortality in this age group might be caused by the pandemic virus and should be regarded as his trademark.
 

Attachments

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-19 (Three Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-19 (Three Pediatric Deaths)

Thank you very much Tetano for that analysis.
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-20 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-20 (No Pediatric Deaths)

That puts the %P&I back over the epidemic threshold of 7.3% for week 20.

I don't understand what is causing this. All other flu indicators at the national and state levels indicate that flu shouldn't be the cause of it.

Are there other respiratory viruses that are causing excess deaths?
Missouriwatcher said:
Week 20:
No influenza-associated pediatric deaths
P&I deaths: 7.4%
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6020md.htm?s_cid=mm6020md_e&source=govdelivery
Click to expand...
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

At 6.8%, the P&I rate is above the epidemic threshold again.
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-19 (Three Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-19 (Three Pediatric Deaths)

Tetano's 2nd table
> mortalita' complessiva USA.doc (29.5 KB, 15 views)


"dramatic" reduction in US-deaths in the season 2009/2010,
presumably due to the pandemic (and the resulting lack of H3N2)


---------------------------
Code: 
US-deaths in the 122 cities (multiply by ~4 to get total US-deaths) 

w20-w19 2010f  2009f  2008f  2007f  2006f  2005f  2004f  2003f
---------------------------------------------------------------
>  65  384155 370997 385160 383899 376527 389794 394701 399552    
45-64  134137 131310 135255 131089 129782 130906 127306 124228    
P&I     40648  39224  38793  39296  36156  38992  41194  41600  
  
w40-w19 2010f  2009f  2008f  2007f  2006f  2005f  2004f  2003f    
---------------------------------------------------------------
> 65   246710 236401 245325 249884 241675 250201 253155 259675    
45-64   84604  81708  84578  83274  81840  82761  79767  79125 
P&I     27400  26238  25362  27120  24126  26098  27997  28558

England and Wales , excess winter mortality
Excess winter mortality is calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March)
minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November
of the previous year).

2002/2003,23970
2003/2004,23450
2004/2005,31640
2005/2006,25270
2006/2007,23740
2007/2008,24690
2008/2009,36450
2009/2010,25400
2010/2011,24600(estimated)

Code: 
since 1950/1951:
106400,44950,82670,47180,64670,67560,29080,57780,77920,41060
68880,68820,89600,49510,41730,57120,25990,70260,50630,67790
34110,46270,46630,34710,31920,58100,34590,41240,48490,30120
32900,42380,42820,30240,47380,49330,26370,32970,21160,47200
37940,34850,25650,25900,27290,40190,47690,22900,46840,48440
24840,27230,23970,23450,31640,25270,23740,24690,36450,25400

(apparantly flutrackers automatically includes a blank in lines without
blank after ~50 letters, this can be avoided by including the text
into {code} and {/code})


the USA excess winter deaths -by that British definition - for 1959-2007
are being calculated and will be posted soon ...
(from ~101M death certificates, 1972 only 50%)


Code: 
USA excess winter deaths:
1959/1960:88216
1960/1...1969/1970:42728,63312,91228,57877,58303,40730,39733,81928,78876,62161
1970/1...1979/1980:42766,70372,62890,34893,64766,78433,47928,81371,37335,68100
1980/1...1989/1990:87955,36762,51450,60750,92085,80029,59023,87538,76901,98447
1990/1...1999/2000:57928,79331,82000,98065,74521,90995,103836,117457,117263,123054
2000/1...2006/2007:80936,92269,75950,117131,107794,84015,77992
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

@gsgs

Where can you read english data grouped for age ?
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

death certificates

I converted them to make a big file (4GB)
101M lines = certificates

year,month,day,ICD-code,state,county,city,size of city,sex,marital,race,12 age groups

now I can make subfiles from it - what do you want ?



oops, you probabl mean English = UK , not English = language


in the .xls files
google has them as html, but only ~10 actual weeks
historically, I don't know (yet)


yearly : human mortality database http://www.mortality.org/
monthly :

DR-series , in .pdf , e.g. 2008 : http://www.statistics.gov.uk/downloads/theme_health/DR2008/DR_08.pdf


ahh, big file - crashed my firefox


here you can click each week:
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/hub/re...&pagetype=calendar-entry&lday=&lmonth=&lyear=
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

in the .xls files
google has them as html, but only ~10 actual weeks
historically, I don't know (yet)


It would be important to know the historical data, not only the last 10 weeks...
 
Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

Re: Weekly MMWR (2010-11): Weeks 40-25 (No Pediatric Deaths)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/Product.asp?vlnk=15354

Code: 
deaths per thousand population, England and Wales
year_quartal,Allages,<11,1-4,5-9,10-14,15-19,20-24,25-34,35-44,45-54,55-64,65-74,75-84,>=85
males
2007_1,10.0,5.3,0.28,0.12,0.14,0.47,0.65,0.92,1.55,3.68,9.2,24.4,69.9,184.3
2007_2,8.8,5.8,0.26,0.12,0.14,0.44,0.65,0.90,1.50,3.39,8.6,22.1,60.7,152.3
2007_3,8.2,5.1,0.22,0.09,0.13,0.40,0.61,0.88,1.49,3.18,8.1,20.7,57.1,140.5
2007_4,9.3,5.2,0.28,0.13,0.12,0.43,0.69,0.88,1.61,3.45,9.0,22.8,63.6,167.3
2008_1,9.7,5.4,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.37,0.59,0.84,1.57,3.66,9.0,23.4,65.7,177.7
2008_2,8.9,5.3,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.45,0.61,0.87,1.59,3.40,8.5,21.7,60.0,155.2
2008_3,8.2,5.1,0.18,0.13,0.10,0.44,0.70,0.88,1.57,3.27,8.1,20.4,55.0,139.0
2008_4,9.5,5.4,0.25,0.09,0.12,0.46,0.70,0.89,1.63,3.48,8.6,22.7,64.7,173.7
2009_1,9.9,5.4,0.18,0.06,0.13,0.43,0.57,0.82,1.61,3.43,9.0,22.9,67.1,182.7
2009_2,8.4,5.3,0.18,0.10,0.10,0.41,0.56,0.79,1.58,3.12,8.2,20.3,55.6,144.3
2009_3,8.0,5.0,0.16,0.08,0.10,0.39,0.55,0.81,1.57,3.16,7.9,19.4,52.8,134.8
2009_4,9.0,4.8,0.20,0.14,0.15,0.49,0.65,0.88,1.74,3.47,8.5,21.4,58.6,158.7
2010_1,9.6,4.9,0.21,0.12,0.10,0.31,0.54,0.77,1.58,3.37,8.7,22.0,62.1,173.0
2010_2,8.5,4.8,0.19,0.08,0.10,0.36,0.54,0.73,1.48,3.11,8.2,20.1,54.6,143.7
2010_3,8.1,4.6,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.34,0.60,0.76,1.49,3.12,7.8,19.2,51.4,133.2
females
2007_1,10.9,4.5,0.24,0.07,0.12,0.27,0.27,0.38,0.97,2.31,5.9,16.3,51.7,166.9
2007_2,9.2,4.6,0.21,0.10,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.44,0.86,2.31,5.5,14.1,42.8,135.6
2007_3,8.5,4.1,0.14,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.28,0.36,0.87,2.22,5.2,12.9,39.9,124.3
2007_4,9.8,4.2,0.16,0.10,0.12,0.20,0.25,0.38,0.96,2.25,5.7,14.7,45.4,147.9
2008_1,10.4,4.5,0.20,0.07,0.09,0.22,0.23,0.42,0.93,2.34,5.6,15.0,48.7,160.7
2008_2,9.3,3.6,0.20,0.11,0.10,0.16,0.28,0.41,0.92,2.29,5.5,13.8,42.8,139.7
2008_3,8.5,4.4,0.20,0.09,0.08,0.20,0.24,0.43,0.91,2.17,5.2,13.0,38.9,123.4
2008_4,10.3,4.3,0.25,0.09,0.08,0.23,0.26,0.40,0.97,2.32,5.8,15.0,46.4,158.4
2009_1,10.6,4.3,0.21,0.09,0.10,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.96,2.25,5.9,14.8,48.5,166.0
2009_2,8.5,4.4,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.19,0.20,0.39,0.85,2.08,5.1,12.9,39.1,124.7
2009_3,8.0,3.8,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.22,0.37,0.85,2.03,5.0,12.3,36.3,116.7
2009_4,9.3,4.4,0.20,0.09,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.41,0.97,2.24,5.5,13.7,41.9,138.2
2010_1,10.4,4.2,0.18,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.39,0.94,2.21,5.8,13.9,45.8,159.6
2010_2,8.7,4.2,0.19,0.10,0.07,0.21,0.22,0.35,0.90,2.01,5.1,13.0,38.8,127.5
2010_3,8.3,3.9,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.38,0.87,2.04,5.0,12.3,36.5,120.1

Code: 
100*(winter deaths)/(summer deaths) in England and wales by age               
                                                     
males all  -11  1-   5-   10-  15-  20-  25-  35-  45-  55-  65-  75-  85-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007: 117   97  116  114  103  111  103  103  103  112  110  114  118  125            
2008: 113  103  104   96  100   83   90   96   99  109  108  111  114  120                
2009: 120  104  105   66  130  107  102  102  102  109  111  115  123  130            
2010: 115  104  110  141  105   88   94  103  106  108  108  111  117  124             

females all -11 1-   5-   10-  15-  20-  25-  35-  45-  55-  65-  75-  85-
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007: 123  103  137   87  100  150  108   95  112  101  110  120  125  128             
2008: 116  112  100   70  100  122   88   99  101  104  104  111  119  122              
2009: 128  104  123  100  125  100  114  110  112  109  116  117  128  137           
2010: 122  103  105  137  162  105  107  106  106  109  114  109  121  128
 
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