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Weather In Fall of 1918?

J

Jeremy

Well-known member
Since there is a lot of discussion about when the second wave might return...Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec/etc...

I was wondering if anyone had the weather history for 1918 from August-November in the Northern Hemisphere. What I am wondering is if it was unusually mild/cold in August or September which would have precipiated an earlier flu outbreak.

Does anyone have this data?

Thanks,
Jeremy
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

Jeremy, would lack of proper food, warm clothes, and heat maybe affect this as well ? After a long terrible war ?
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

ming said:
Jeremy, would lack of proper food, warm clothes, and heat maybe affect this as well ? After a long terrible war ?
Click to expand...

Those are of course factors in the health of an individual, community, etc..what I am looking for is strictly weather (i.e. was the average temp in the 70's or 60's in September, was there an unusual cold spell, etc...)
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

tolenio said:
Hello,

I believe you should be looking for cloudy, rainy weather with overcast. This limits UV pentrating to the ground.

Tom
Click to expand...

That is a good point as well, however those are more localized events. That being said, it would be interesting to know if 1918 was a la nina or el nino year, because that has larger overall implications. Furthermore, since the Earth is currently getting warmer the average temp is slowly rising so this also is of interest.
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

Here's some data on volcanic eruptions in the 20th century. Feel free to make your own conclusions.

1912 Novarupta, Alaska
Largest U.S. volcanic eruption of the 20th century, produced 21 cubic kilometers of volcanic material, which is equivalent to 230 years of eruption at Kilauea (Hawaii). (Or, about 30 times the volume erupted by Mount St. Helens in 1980.) Pyroclastic flow filled Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, and as much as 0.3 meter of ash fell 161 kilometers away. -- Excerpt from: Wright and Pierson, 1992, USGS Circular 1073, p.5, and Brantley, 1994, Volcanoes of the United States, USGS General Interest Publication, p.30. )
Click to expand...

1914-1917 Lassen Peak, California
Pyroclastic flows, debris flows, and lava flows covered over 16 square kilometers. This eruption was moderate compared to major eruptions at other volcanoes in the world during recorded history. No one was killed in the Mount Lassen eruption and damage was minor. -- Excerpt from: Wright and Pierson, 1992, USGS Circular 1073, p.5., and Tilling, 1980, Earthquake Information Bulletin, v.12, n.4, p.163.
Click to expand...

Source: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/LivingWith/VolcanicFacts/volcanic_impact.html
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

Based on the data so far it is looking like this year is a kinda of average or below average year in terms of temperature. The hurricane forcast is for an average year as well which would imply average or below average temperatures over the northern hemisphere.

I saw one Long term Forecast projection that had September at 3 or 4 degrees below average.

Part of me is thinking that the colder we in August and September the worse it is going to be in the early fall.
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

Thanks for asking this question. I've had similar curiosity. Hopefully work will free up so I can try and dig into it. I think this may prove to be valuable information.

Jeremy said:
Since there is a lot of discussion about when the second wave might return...Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec/etc...

I was wondering if anyone had the weather history for 1918 from August-November in the Northern Hemisphere. What I am wondering is if it was unusually mild/cold in August or September which would have precipiated an earlier flu outbreak.

Does anyone have this data?

Thanks,
Jeremy
Click to expand...
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

This is rather interesting: We have an El Nino year in both 1918/1919 and 2009/2010.

1918:

An ocean model forced with winds from an atmospheric reanalysis of the first half of the 20​
th Century shows that the 1918/1919 El Ni?o was much stronger than previously thought.​

2009:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=545 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle>[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]EL NI?O/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)[/FONT] </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION[/FONT] </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]issued by[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP[/FONT] </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]9 July 2009[/FONT] </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>
[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]ENSO Alert System Status:[/FONT] [FONT=verdana,arial,serif]El Ni?o Advisory[/FONT]​
</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]NOAA PRESS RELEASE[/FONT] </TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD>
[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]Spanish Version[/FONT]​
</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=justify>[FONT=verdana,arial]Synopsis: El Ni?o conditions will continue to develop and are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-2010. [/FONT]
[FONT=verdana,arial]During June 2009, conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean transitioned from ENSO-neutral to El Ni?o conditions. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to increase, with the latest weekly departures exceeding +1.0?C along a narrow band in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the weekly SST indices increased steadily during June and now range from +0.6?C to +0.9?C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also increased as the thermocline continued to deepen (Fig. 4). Consistent with the oceanic evolution, the low-level equatorial trade winds were weaker-than-average across much of the Pacific basin, and convection became increasingly suppressed over Indonesia. This coupling of the ocean and atmosphere indicates the development of El Ni?o conditions.
[FONT=verdana,arial]Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Ni?o-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Ni?o (+0.5?C or greater in the Ni?o-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Ni?o (+0.5?C to +2.0?C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Ni?o into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.
[FONT=verdana,arial]Expected El Ni?o impacts during July-September 2009 include enhanced precipitation over the central and west-central Pacific Ocean, along with the continuation of drier than average conditions over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and early Fall, and generally strengthen during the late Fall and Winter. El Ni?o can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook issued in May (will be updated on Aug. 6th) indicates the highest probabilities for a near-average season.
[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA?s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Ni?o/La Ni?a Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Ni?o/La Ni?a are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 6 August 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.[/FONT]
[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]</TD></TR><TR><TD> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>[FONT=verdana,arial,serif]Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304[/FONT] </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

do we have any connection of ****** with weather in 2009 ?
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

Another interesting piece of information.

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

1918/19 was an El Nino year. (Strong)
1957/58 was an El Nino year. (Strong)
1968/69 was an El Nino year. (Weak)
2009/10 will be an El Nino year. (?)

We at least we have a short term pattern. It seems whenever we have an influenza pandemic we also have an El Nino year. At least in the last 100 years.
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

2009/10 will be an El Nino year. (?)
Click to expand...

I have read from OC register that OC, and presumably SCal, will get heavier than average rainfall this winter due to El Nino. End of long SCal drought. Should be a relief to SCal after 3-4 years of severe drought but wet winters lead to mudslides, homes sliding down hiils, and of course a more devastating fall/winter flu outbreak.
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

There have been numerous sightings of great white sharks off the California coastline this year . Also unusually large numbers of huge squids, averaging 5 ft in length have been caught off califiornia coast recently. Could this be due to El Nino? I understand that the upper layer ocean temps are warmer than usual across the Central Pacific. Could this be driving species such as great whites farther north and into Ca coastal waters?
 
Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

Jeremy said:
Since there is a lot of discussion about when the second wave might return...Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov/Dec/etc...

I was wondering if anyone had the weather history for 1918 from August-November in the Northern Hemisphere. What I am wondering is if it was unusually mild/cold in August or September which would have precipiated an earlier flu outbreak.

Does anyone have this data?

Thanks,
Jeremy
Click to expand...

The Spanish Flu (A/H1N1) hit Philadephia very hard in fall of 1918 and hit peak in October. Attached is a temperature map for Philadephia for 1918.
 

Attachments

Re: Weather In Fall of 1918?

French site. Looks like it has weather info for many years including XIXth century. I haven't the time to dig into it just now. Posting here for reference for later.
 
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