wave 2

[gsgs]

wikipedia has 37700 cases in USA, my updates see above

new upate from Mexico, 2nd wave, 16.July:

assume 4 months between waves, until immunity weakens again
(as in 1918) this implies widespread infection in Mexico
in late March. Surveillance and the chart only started in mid-April

It might give the 2nd wave in NY in late September

-------------------------------------

few new infections in Distrito Federal(DF), which was hardest hit
in the first wave. People are still protected ?

Worst is Yucatan, which had almost no cases in the first wave
now ~1 (confirmed) case per 1000 inhabitants, 10 times more than DF

Biggest district is Mexico state which had not many
confirmed cases in either wave

 

[JimO]

Re: wave 2

Mexico has reported less than 10 deaths since early June. Based on the chart above, is that realistic? If so, then the second wave in Mexico apparently isn't nearly as deadly.

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

hmm, Yucatan and Chiapas could be the mild Cancun virus(es) ?

Also deaths follow onset dates with quite some delay

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: wave 2

It looks like the data and the chart are scewed.

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

here is a graph of case-population-rate by wave for the 32 states.

Cases in Yucatan and Chiapas exploded in wave 2
(vertical is 3 times reduced over horizontal already)

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

Mexico should really tell the world, what strains are dominating in Yukatan
and Chiapas and if the CFR is really so much lower than in wave 1

The idea is to maybe support the Cancun-strains (no measures)
and hinder the other strains worldwide (school closures,
vaccine, SIP)

 

[SonicHappyHourAddict]

Re: wave 2

It seems like watching for a second wave is very appropriate. Thanks for being viligent.
We are all here to help each other and the world hopefully be prepared as much as possible.
Thanks to everyone for their hard work.

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

the ratio of deaths is not so much different from the Mexican
average in Yucatan and Chiapas :

region,confirmed cases,confirmed deaths
Mexico:12645,124
Yucatan:1681,14
Chiapas:2205,15

but Yucatan and Chiapas had many new cases recently
and presumably they are not testing much.
Compare with New York City, where they only has 1200
confirmed cases, 50 deaths, >500000 infected.

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

here the data for that chart above from 18.July



state,population,official cases wave 1,official cases wave 2 + wave 1

Coahuila,2495,0,2
Baja_California_Sur,512,5,11
Durango,1509,13,29
Sinaloa,2209,5,46
Campeche,755,25,57
Tlaxcala,1068,66,77
Puebla,5383,40,77
Sonora,2395,34,106
Morelos,1613,79,109
Baja_California,2844,65,134
Nayarit,950,53,145
Colima,568,18,157
Aguascalientes,1065,52,169
Oaxaca,3507,42,185
Quintana_Roo,1135,26,196
Chihuahua,3241,37,199
Guanajuato,4893,25,233
Queretaro,1598,120,243
Hidalgo,2345,234,272
Tamaulipas,3024,42,293
Zacatecas,1368,148,339
Mexico,14007,219,383
Nuevo_Leon,4199,26,455
Michoacan,3966,95,469
San_Luis_Potosi,2410,252,499
Guerrero,3115,129,604
Jalisco,7000,88,680
Veracruz,7110,182,712
Tabasco,1990,106,720
Yucatan,1819,57,1681
Distrito_Federal,8836,1568,2151
Chiapas,4293,37,2205

 

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Thank you very much for posting the charts and graphs GSGS. I REALLY appreciate it!

Regarding the chart above, are you sure the first set of numbers designate population? I know the State of Jalisco has WAY more than 7000 people, so I am a bit confused...
Thanks!

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

multiply by 1000
numbers from Wikipedia (2005-census)

sorry, 3rd number is waves 1 and 2 combined (total)



Jalisco is the circle with the rectangle in it in above picture

 

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Given the fact that I noticed everyone sick again the last week of July, and the fact that Jalisco has confirmed it..

Re: Jalisco: Cases

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Source: http://www.lajornadajalisco.com.mx/2...ticle=007n1pol

During the same period, average daily confirmations increased from 9 to 15
SSJ: in the last ten days has doubled the number of deaths from influenza A/H1N1

The state agency will undertake intensive campaign before the arrival of 300 thousand parishioners

PONCE SAAVEDRA VIRIDIANA

During the past ten days the indicators of deaths from influenza A/H1N1 in Jalisco doubled. Until yesterday afternoon were 11 deaths confirmed by the Ministry of Health Jalisco (SSJ), after it was added to the list for a woman of 48 years, residing in Tlaquepaque, whereas only last July 27 there were five confirmed deaths.

At the same time, the contagion index also rose 8.8 confirmations per day on average since the beginning of the health alert on April 23 last year, averaging 15.6 confirmations per day in the period of July 27 until yesterday, after which that date were 842 confirmed cases yesterday and totaled 998.

I would expect to see another sharp rise in the graph in post #1 for the end of July into August....and school has not started yet!

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

update from 4th August

http://portal.salud.gob.mx/sites/salud/descargas/pdf/influenza/situacion_actual_epidemia_040809.pdf

 

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Perhaps confirmation is lagging or people are not that sick yet? I've been watching the Mexico thread closely and nearly all states have increased cases.
Re. illness, I believe you are correct Dr. Niman,
Within the realm of my family and friends, the answer is yes. This is our 3rd time around. First was end of April, second time, beginning of June, and now the end of July. Seems its either G.I. or respiratory, but usually not both at the same time. Everyone has the cough though.

It does seem a little different each time, my 9 yr old for instance, had a sore throat/fever/cough the first time. Diarrhea, vomiting and fever the second time. And high fever, swollen glands, cough the 3rd time.
Similar, but different.

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

can't we get more reports from infected people or their friends ?

Who had had it should go to the internet, search for suitable
keywords and inform the rest of the world !
This is of common interest.

Please add some Spanish keywords to this thread, so it can be
found.
That we are seeking for people reporting about their
symptoms, timings, who they possibly got it from

 

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

I checked my notes and the Government Web Site showed 914 confirmed cases on 7/30/09 and 1,034 today, 8/4/09. In Jalisco.

http://informacioninfluenza.jalisco.gob.mx/

 

[gsgs]

Re: wave 2

sorted by confirmed cases per population 16.Jul-04.Aug

name                 pop May20 Jul16 Aug04
-----------------------------------------
Yucatan              1819   57 1681 2535    0.46949
Colima                568   18  157  289    0.23239
Quintana_Roo         1135   26  196  429    0.20529
Chiapas              4293   37 2205 3044    0.19543
Tamaulipas           3024   42  293  532    0.07903
Tabasco              1990  106  720  862    0.07136
Nayarit               950   53  145  204    0.06211
San_Luis_Potosi      2410  252  499  632    0.05519
Oaxaca               3507   42  185  348    0.04648
Jalisco              7000   88  680  956    0.03943
Campeche              755   25   57   83    0.03444
Veracruz             7110  182  712  871    0.02236
Nuevo_Leon           4199   26  455  546    0.02167
Guerrero             3115  129  604  664    0.01926
Queretaro            1598  120  243  266    0.01439
Guanajuato           4893   25  233  302    0.01410
Distrito_Federal     8836 1568 2151 2250    0.01120
Michoacan            3966   95  469  513    0.01109
Aguascalientes       1065   52  169  175    0.00563
Hidalgo              2345  234  272  284    0.00512
Puebla               5383   40   77  104    0.00502
Sinaloa              2209    5   46   55    0.00407
Baja_California      2844   65  134  145    0.00387
Tlaxcala             1068   66   77   81    0.00375
Zacatecas            1368  148  339  344    0.00365
Coahuila             2495    0    2   10    0.00321
Morelos              1613   79  109  114    0.00310
Durango              1509   13   29   32    0.00199
Baja_California_Sur   512    5   11   12    0.00195
Mexico              14007  219  383  409    0.00186
Chihuahua            3241   37  199  205    0.00185
Sonora               2395   34  106  110    0.00167

 

[Tonka]

Re: wave 2

Thought this post should go here also. Thanks Liz!

This is a couple of weeks old, but it was just passed on to me. From H5N1: News and Resources about Pandemic Influenza


Quote:
Mexico: A second wave of H1N1
Thanks to the reader who sent the link to Clar?n.com, an Argentine news source: M?xico confirm? una segunda oleada de Gripe A. [Mexico confirms a second wave of H1N1]. Excerpt, with my translation:

El Ministerio de Salud de M?xico confirm? una segunda oleada de Gripe A, que dej? un tendal de 10 muertos en apenas cuatro d?as y oblig? a las autoridades locales a reforzar nuevamente las medidas sanitarias. Pese a las temperaturas c?lidas y sofocantes que recorren todo el pa?s, el rebrote del virus provoc? el contagio de 632 personas. La regi?n sur, en especial en el estado de Chiapas, es la m?s afectada.
The Mexican ministry of health has confirmed a second wave of H1N1, causing ten deaths in just four days and obliging local authorities to impose new sanitary measures. Despite the suffocatingly hot temperatures everywhere in the country, the new outbreak of the virus has infected 632 persons. The southern region, especially Chiapas state, is the most affected.

El epidemi?logo Hugo L?pez Gateli, uno de los directores del Centro Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiol?gica, reconoci? que en Chiapas los casos "se han disparado", al punto tal que en menos de un mes se quintuplicaron los contagios. Actualmente, ese estado contabiliza 3.664 enfermos y 19 muertos. La zona de Yucat?n, al sureste, tambi?n experiment? una situaci?n similar, con la triplicaci?n de casos en pocas semanas (pasaron de 683 a 1.906). La ciudad de M?xico (2.161 pacientes) es otra de las regiones con alta tasa de infectados.

Epidemiologist Hugo L?pez Gateli, one of the directors of the National Center for Epidemiological Surveillance, said that cases in Chiapas "have exploded," to the point that in less than a month the cases have quintupled. Actually, this state now lists 3,664 cases and 19 deaths. Yucat?n, in the southeast, has had a similar experience, with the tripling of cases in a few weeks (rising from 683 to 1,906 cases). Mexico City (2,161 cases) is another of the regions with a high rate of infection.
While the Health Secretariat's own flu update page provides current case and death numbers, it doesn't mention a second wave. In El Universal, the health secretary says the country still has time to prepare for the new outbreak.

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