sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
My bolding..
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
(This analysis and tweet thread in collaboration with
@famulare_mike
) The existence of a community transmission cluster of #COVID19 in Snohomish and King Counties is now supported by 8 confirmed and sequenced cases (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235676811356332032…). 1/7
Quote Tweet
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
Mar 5
New #SARSCoV2 genomes from the #seattlecoronavirus outbreak have been shared by @UWVirology through GISAID. These group as part of the same emerging transmission chain. 1/3 https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1235676290335698945…
Show this thread
8:10 PM ? Mar 6, 2020?Twitter Web App
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
27m
Replying to
@trvrb
As of today, in addition to the one traveller case, there are ~60 more cases in King and Snohomish counties from which we don't yet know the sequences. 2/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
26m
Many of them are surely related to this cluster and some may be recent traveller importations. But some may also represent other clusters not yet confirmed. The model below describes our best estimates for only the confirmed cluster. 3/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
26m
Using forward simulation, with a doubling time of 6.2 (5.1, 8.2) days, we estimate the prevalence of active infections on Mar 5 is 620 (90% uncertainty interval 120, 1600). 4/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
25m
If growth continues unabated, this cluster alone may be responsible for 1100 (210, 2800) active infections by March 10 and 2000 (370, 5000) by March 15. 5/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
24m
We think this phylogenetic evidence continues to support the comprehensive actions recommended by
@KCPubHealth
@SnoHD
@WADeptHealth
to reduce the rate of transmission. https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx… 6/7
3
22
88
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
24m
We thank
@seattleflustudy
@HelenChuMD
@lea_starita
@mjonasrieder
@debnick60
@JShendure
@trs
@databae_
@UWVirology
@pavitrarc
@GreningerLab
@IDMOD_ORG
@BrotmanBaty
@KCPubHealth
@WADeptHealth
@SnoHD
@CDC_AMD
7/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
(This analysis and tweet thread in collaboration with
@famulare_mike
) The existence of a community transmission cluster of #COVID19 in Snohomish and King Counties is now supported by 8 confirmed and sequenced cases (https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1235676811356332032…). 1/7
Quote Tweet
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
Mar 5
New #SARSCoV2 genomes from the #seattlecoronavirus outbreak have been shared by @UWVirology through GISAID. These group as part of the same emerging transmission chain. 1/3 https://twitter.com/nextstrain/status/1235676290335698945…
Show this thread
8:10 PM ? Mar 6, 2020?Twitter Web App
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
27m
Replying to
@trvrb
As of today, in addition to the one traveller case, there are ~60 more cases in King and Snohomish counties from which we don't yet know the sequences. 2/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
26m
Many of them are surely related to this cluster and some may be recent traveller importations. But some may also represent other clusters not yet confirmed. The model below describes our best estimates for only the confirmed cluster. 3/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
26m
Using forward simulation, with a doubling time of 6.2 (5.1, 8.2) days, we estimate the prevalence of active infections on Mar 5 is 620 (90% uncertainty interval 120, 1600). 4/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
25m
If growth continues unabated, this cluster alone may be responsible for 1100 (210, 2800) active infections by March 10 and 2000 (370, 5000) by March 15. 5/7
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
24m
We think this phylogenetic evidence continues to support the comprehensive actions recommended by
@KCPubHealth
@SnoHD
@WADeptHealth
to reduce the rate of transmission. https://kingcounty.gov/depts/health/communicable-diseases/disease-control/novel-coronavirus/protection.aspx… 6/7
3
22
88
Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
24m
We thank
@seattleflustudy
@HelenChuMD
@lea_starita
@mjonasrieder
@debnick60
@JShendure
@trs
@databae_
@UWVirology
@pavitrarc
@GreningerLab
@IDMOD_ORG
@BrotmanBaty
@KCPubHealth
@WADeptHealth
@SnoHD
@CDC_AMD
7/7