Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
Source: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ess-for-a-global-flu-pandemic-91466-23463061/
Testing our readiness for a global flu pandemic
Apr 24 2009 by Andrew Pugh, Western Mail
EMERGENCY services yesterday prepared for some of the worst excesses of a future flu pandemic, which experts predict could lead to thousands of deaths, civil unrest and economic collapse.
All four Welsh police forces were represented at the mock exercise in South Wales, codenamed ?Exercise Taliesin?, together with other 999 crews and representatives from the military, NHS, local authorities and the National Assembly.
They were joined by organisations as diverse as the Red Cross and the Environment Agency although, in the event of an outbreak, the response would be overseen by leading police officers.
?A flu pandemic is a world threat and we have to put plans in place to how we would respond,? said South Wales Police Chief Superintendent Cliff Filer.
?Exercise Taliesin is not just about testing our plan but refining it too. The UK commands great respect internationally for our state of preparation. Many other countries are visiting us to see how it?s done. It?s a threat we take very seriously.?
Speaking at the event at South Wales Police?s Bridgend HQ he added: ?We don?t want people to be worried by this exercise ? they should be reassured.?
The most obvious impact of a flu pandemic would be the effect on the NHS, which would quickly be pushed to breaking point.
Staff sickness, the pressure for beds and managing the distribution of vaccines would all contribute to the growing crisis, but the health impacts would be only the beginning.
Reports compiled by local authorities across the UK also warn of shortages of food, water, fuel, and electricity, the possible collapse of telecommunications and the risk to public safety, as the crisis causes huge disruption to most aspects of normal life.
A flu pandemic is a global threat and occurs when a new and highly-infectious strain of the influenza virus appears, a situation that can occur at any time.
There is seemingly no pattern to the cycle of pandemics, with intervals between the most recent pandemics varying from around 10 to 40 years. Unlike the ?ordinary? flu outbreaks we see every winter in the UK, flu pandemics occur very rarely, with only three in the 20th century.
One of the biggest threats is H5N1, otherwise known as ?avian? or ?bird? flu.
Though there is no evidence of airborne transmission, there are still fears that it could mutate into a strain capable of human-to-human transmission.
While governments across the world are developing pandemic influenza vaccines which could reduce the threat of a deadly pandemic, full-scale production of a ?cure? could only take place at least three months after the virus first emerges.
H5N1 is, however, only one of many different subtypes of the Influenza A virus, any one of which could combine with another to create a pandemic strain.
Worst case scenario forecasts suggest that up to 50% of the population will be affected by the disease, while mortality predictions of a UK pandemic vary anywhere between 50,000 to 750,000.
In an area like Dyfed-Powys, for example, with a population of just more than 500,000, a worst-case mortality rate of 2.5% would see up to 6,424 deaths.
During yesterday?s exercises, strategic co-ordination centres, known as ?Gold? commands, were set up across the nation, with the organisations taking part asked to respond to these different scenarios.
Assembly Minister for Health and Social Services, Edwina Hart, spoke of the importance of such exercises.
?There is no doubt that a flu pandemic has the potential to cause disruption as people become ill or need to care for others.
?We need to prepare to ensure that not only can we deal with the immediate effects of the pandemic but we can make sure that essential services are maintained.
?Exercises like the one taking place today will help public and other organisations prepare, test the plans we have in place and address any issues that might arise during the exercise.?
Testing our readiness for a global flu pandemic
Apr 24 2009 by Andrew Pugh, Western Mail
EMERGENCY services yesterday prepared for some of the worst excesses of a future flu pandemic, which experts predict could lead to thousands of deaths, civil unrest and economic collapse.
All four Welsh police forces were represented at the mock exercise in South Wales, codenamed ?Exercise Taliesin?, together with other 999 crews and representatives from the military, NHS, local authorities and the National Assembly.
They were joined by organisations as diverse as the Red Cross and the Environment Agency although, in the event of an outbreak, the response would be overseen by leading police officers.
?A flu pandemic is a world threat and we have to put plans in place to how we would respond,? said South Wales Police Chief Superintendent Cliff Filer.
?Exercise Taliesin is not just about testing our plan but refining it too. The UK commands great respect internationally for our state of preparation. Many other countries are visiting us to see how it?s done. It?s a threat we take very seriously.?
Speaking at the event at South Wales Police?s Bridgend HQ he added: ?We don?t want people to be worried by this exercise ? they should be reassured.?
The most obvious impact of a flu pandemic would be the effect on the NHS, which would quickly be pushed to breaking point.
Staff sickness, the pressure for beds and managing the distribution of vaccines would all contribute to the growing crisis, but the health impacts would be only the beginning.
Reports compiled by local authorities across the UK also warn of shortages of food, water, fuel, and electricity, the possible collapse of telecommunications and the risk to public safety, as the crisis causes huge disruption to most aspects of normal life.
A flu pandemic is a global threat and occurs when a new and highly-infectious strain of the influenza virus appears, a situation that can occur at any time.
There is seemingly no pattern to the cycle of pandemics, with intervals between the most recent pandemics varying from around 10 to 40 years. Unlike the ?ordinary? flu outbreaks we see every winter in the UK, flu pandemics occur very rarely, with only three in the 20th century.
One of the biggest threats is H5N1, otherwise known as ?avian? or ?bird? flu.
Though there is no evidence of airborne transmission, there are still fears that it could mutate into a strain capable of human-to-human transmission.
While governments across the world are developing pandemic influenza vaccines which could reduce the threat of a deadly pandemic, full-scale production of a ?cure? could only take place at least three months after the virus first emerges.
H5N1 is, however, only one of many different subtypes of the Influenza A virus, any one of which could combine with another to create a pandemic strain.
Worst case scenario forecasts suggest that up to 50% of the population will be affected by the disease, while mortality predictions of a UK pandemic vary anywhere between 50,000 to 750,000.
In an area like Dyfed-Powys, for example, with a population of just more than 500,000, a worst-case mortality rate of 2.5% would see up to 6,424 deaths.
During yesterday?s exercises, strategic co-ordination centres, known as ?Gold? commands, were set up across the nation, with the organisations taking part asked to respond to these different scenarios.
Assembly Minister for Health and Social Services, Edwina Hart, spoke of the importance of such exercises.
?There is no doubt that a flu pandemic has the potential to cause disruption as people become ill or need to care for others.
?We need to prepare to ensure that not only can we deal with the immediate effects of the pandemic but we can make sure that essential services are maintained.
?Exercises like the one taking place today will help public and other organisations prepare, test the plans we have in place and address any issues that might arise during the exercise.?