Nature Climate Change | Letter
Michelle T. H. van Vliet,
John R. Yearsley,
Fulco Ludwig,
Stefan V?gele,
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
& Pavel Kabat
Nature Climate Change
(2012)
doi:10.1038/nclimate1546
Received
06 December 2011
Accepted
24 April 2012
Published online
03 June 2012
In the United States and Europe, at present 91% and 78% (ref. 1) of the total electricity is produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil-fuelled) power plants, which directly depend on the availability and temperature of water resources for cooling. During recent warm, dry summers several thermoelectric power plants in Europe and the southeastern United States were forced to reduce production owing to cooling-water scarcity2, 3, 4. Here we show that thermoelectric power in Europe and the United States is vulnerable to climate change owing to the combined impacts of lower summer river flows and higher river water temperatures. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, we show a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3?19% in Europe and 4.4?16% in the United States depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for 2031?2060. In addition, probabilities of extreme (>90%) reductions in thermoelectric power production will on average increase by a factor of three. Considering the increase in future electricity demand, there is a strong need for improved climate adaptation strategies in the thermoelectric power sector to assure future energy security.
