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Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics - Replikins

AlaskaDenise

In Memoriam
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=42091

24 Apr 2006

Replikins, Ltd. has discovered of a group of virus peptides that predict whether a virus is rapidly replicating and whether it is likely to spread. The company has designed software which can now detect and count these proteins which may allow scientists to better predict viral epidemics, such as the H5N1 (avian) flu.

To date, no protein or other biological phenomenon has been known to correlate with viral epidemics. Researchers have had no objective quantitative protein based means to predict if, and what, strain of a given viral organism will become a public health threat. The current concern over when, or if, there will be an avian flu epidemic has drawn attention to the need for improved measures to help predict, prevent and prepare for emerging health threats.

"We have identified a group of viral peptides we call 'Replikins' whose concentration correlates with rapid viral replication, and can give advance notice of virus epidemics," said Samuel Bogoch, M.D., PhD, a former faculty member of Harvard and Boston University School of Medicine who with his wife and colleague Dr. Elenore Bogoch discovered this new group of peptides.

Groups of Replikins can now be categorized and counted, using computerized software programs, providing a forecasting method. The FluForecast(TM) program analyzes the peptide sequences of a virus and can indicate by the virus's strain-specific Replikins concentration in viral proteins which strains are replicating rapidly, thereby creating the potential for an epidemic. The FluForecast(TM) program has quantitatively analyzed historical data on Replikins (from 1917 to the present) in protein sequences in strains of influenza viruses saved by agencies such as the World Health Organization and The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The FluForecast(TM) program has shown that higher concentrations of Replikins correlate with the emergence of epidemics and lower concentrations of Replikins correlate with dormancy in the three great flu pandemics of the past century and in the H5N1 outbreaks of recent years (see data in Figures 1 and 2 attached below).

"Combined with the software that analyzes viral strains, we now -- for the first time -- have an objective means of determining the threat level of a virus," said Dr. Sam Bogoch. "To our knowledge, there is no other product which provides this predictive information."

Replikins' structures have been found to be conserved both intrastrain and interstrain for as long as 87 years, based on data going back to the 1917-18 flu pandemic. Some Replikin structures appear for only one or a few years, but some persist, that is are conserved for decades. In 2002 Replikins scientist Dr. Bogoch did a Replikin analysis of the published partial sequence of the 1917 influenza virus isolated from a goose and the sequence of the influenza virus that caused the 1918 human influenza pandemic. Dr. Bogoch showed that the structures, (Replikin structures) of the bird and human influenza strains were closely related and concluded that the pandemic of 1918 derived from this 1917 sequence of the bird flu.

Dr. Bogoch's assertion was confirmed in a recent Nature article of 2005. The conservation of Replikin structures as identified by the FluForecast(TM) program creates a more constant target for the development of vaccines to prevent future contagious outbreaks.

In explaining how the Replikins proteins were identified Dr. Bogoch, who founded the Neurochemistry Laboratory at Harvard Medical School, said, "We initially looked at rapid cell replication in tomato gemini virus, which causes great losses of tomato crops, and at other infectious diseases. We searched for similarities between viruses and bacteria, which can duplicate rapidly. For example we found that the slowly replicating HIV virus has a Replikin Count(TM) peptide quantity of 1.1 and the rapidly replicating HIV virus has a Replikin Count(TM) peptide quantity of 6.8. We first focused on the influenza virus, because the C.D.C. has epidemiological data available going back nearly 100 years, and we discovered a pattern of the same peptides in virus outbreaks.

"After that, we developed the software to study the Replikins quantitatively to give advanced warning for the first time of virus outbreaks and dormancy. In addition, Replikins provide novel targets for future antiviral agents."

This Saturday, April 22nd, Replikins and the FluForecast(TM) program will be discussed and demonstrated in Boston at a meeting at Replikins, Ltd., 38 The Fenway, Boston at 10:30 am. The company recently closed a significant round of financing to introduce the FluForecast(TM) program and Replikins technology. Additional information is available at http://www.replikins.com.

Replikins, Ltd.
http://www.replikins.com
Article URL: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=42091
 
Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

If their datas are well corroborated, they will induce a change in epidemiological model.

It looks like a possible useful, pratical and pragmatic measures tool.
 
Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

The Replikin founders have good resumes. I wonder how much work they have completed on H5N1 and what they are predicting?
 
Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

Almost a month and a week after this news in medical news today here is something else I found.

http://www.krnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=4981528&nav=8faR

Replikins' FluForecast Software Pinpoints Change in Deadly Bird Flu Amino Acid Sequence in Humans

Single substitution discovered in current H5N1 was also found to be present in the last two major human pandemics of 1957 (H2N2) and 1968 (H3N2)

BOSTON, June 2 /PRNewswire/ -- WHO and CDC spokespersons have recently announced that no significant worrisome sequence changes have been observed so far in H5N1 isolates from high-mortality H5N1 Indonesian human cases (CIDRAP: Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy News, May 24, 2006). Significant sequence changes are thought to be required for person-to-person transmission to occur, a necessary prerequisite for a human pandemic.

Using new search technology, FluForecast(R) software (see http://www.replikins.com for background and data), Replikins, Ltd. has discovered that in fact, a change in the amino acid sequence has occurred: a recent single amino acid substitution, to be referred to as "Sub," in an H5N1 virus protein, which may be significant because of the last time it was seen.

The company detected the amino acid "Sub" and tracked the sequence in which it occurred back 49 years. Sub is absent from all earlier H5N1 back to H5N1's first appearance in 1959, and is only present in the last two high- mortality influenza pandemics, of 1957 (H2N2) and 1968 (H3N2), which were responsible for millions of deaths, and in a recent, fortunately brief, outbreak of H7N7, with one human death. The company's FluForecast(R) software found the Sub amino acid substitution in earlier swine H1N1 infections, but not in recent chicken H5N1 isolates, and only in recent human H5N1 isolates, and only in human cases in areas with high mortality. Sub is present in isolates from Vietnam and Indonesia human H5N1 cases. This substitution correlates with epidemiological evidence that suggests that human person-to- person "cluster" transmission may already have occurred, although infrequently to date.

Dr. Sam Bogoch, the company's chairman, said that the sequence in which Sub occurs is a small virus peptide which the company has found to be conserved in H1N1, H2N2, H2N3, and H5N1, for 88 years, from 1917 to the present. The company has also found that an increase in concentration of peptides of this type in proteins is associated with rapid replication and epidemics. With use of the company's FluForecast(R) software, for the first time, strain-specific quantitative protein correlations with epidemics have been observed. The rise in "Replikin Count" (number of replikins per 100 amino acids), detected by the FluForecast software, has been found to be quantitatively correlated with and predictive in advance of the last three flu pandemics of the past century and the last three H5N1 epidemics from 1997 to the present.

FluForecast(R) permits advance strain-specific warning of 1 to 3 years that an epidemic or pandemic is on its way, thus allowing greater time and more specificity in tailoring more accurate, potentially safer, synthetic influenza vaccines. Previous lack of information of the substituted structure of H5N1, which might be the agent of the next pandemic, has hindered attempts to produce appropriate vaccines. In addition, current egg- and cell-based methods produce vaccines which contain thousands of unwanted proteins which may produce undesirable side effects, take 6 to 9 months or more to make, and more time to test. Replikins, Ltd. is now synthesizing several new synthetic flu vaccines and conducting initial trials.

While a single substitution, alone, may not guarantee a pandemic, and the function of the substitution is not as yet known, the occurrence of the same substitution of amino acid "Sub," at least as a marker in the last two high- mortality pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, its occurrence now only in humans, accompanied by high Replikin counts and high mortality rates, together may suggest, in contrast to previous more comforting assessments, that H5N1 is indeed on the path to a human pandemic. What finally determines if and when a full-force pandemic materializes is still unknown. "Replikins is working with several government and private institutions to test the company's new synthetic vaccines," said Dr. Bogoch, Chairman of Replikins, Ltd.

Press Contact: Carol Zepp, carolzepppr@yahoo.com, 978-468-8080

Replikins, Ltd. info@replikins.com, 617-536-9711, 38 the Fenway, Boston, Mass., 02215

This release was issued through eReleases(TM). For more information, visit http://www.ereleases.com.

CONTACT: Carol Zepp for Replikins, Ltd., +1-978-468-8080, carolzepppr@yahoo.com; or Replikins, Ltd.: +1-617-536-9711, info@replikins.com

Web site: http://www.replikins.com/
Disclaimer: Information contained on this page is provided by companies featured through PR Newswire. PR Newswire, WorldNow and this Station cannot confirm the accuracy of this information and make no warranties or representations in connection therewith.
 
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Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

Re: Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

This is from their site

My personnal opinion : Be carefull I found theses informations very very very bizzare, frankly Please, if someone can explain me thoses quotes in green, PM me some info or Post them here. Right now I'm very sceptical.[/U]

http://www.replikins.com/science1.html

The Science

Within the last century there have been three influenza pandemics, each strain specific: H1N1 in 1918; H2N2 in 1957; and H3N2 in 1968. The company's research team analyzed the amino acid sequences of the reported strains and found that with each pandemic there was a strain-specific increase in the Replikin Count™ peptide quantities within the strain, followed by a decrease in Replikin Count™ peptide quantities and several years later a rebound increase associated in each case with a strain-specific rebound epidemic. The x axis of Figure 1 below shows the year and the y axis shows the Replikin Count™ peptide quantities per 100 amino acids. Note that within Figure 1, there is a separate graph for each pandemic.


Figure 2, below, shows a similar correlation between the outbreaks of H5NI (bird Flu) between 1997 and the present and the Replikin Count™ peptide quantities during each of those years. Again the x axis indicates the year (note: there are two entries for 2005 (one for the first quarter and a second for the third quarter)) and the y axis indicates the Replikin Count™ peptide quantities (number of Replikins per 100 amino acids). The time periods for each epidemic of H5N1 are denoted in Figure 2 by E1, E2 and E3.
science1.png

Fixed scaffold Replikin peptide sequence in H5N1 "Bird Flu" virus conserved since 1959: Proposed origin from the 1917 Goose Replikin peptide; Design of synthetic Bird Flu vaccine from conserved replikins
science2.png


The current outbreak of high mortality H5N1 "bird flu" in several countries is the cause of some concern because it might represent the first phase of an overdue influenza pandemic. The ability to prepare a vaccine in a timely manner is in doubt because of the egg-based culture methods; and the constant random substitution of amino acids in H5N1 proteins (antigenic drift) is thought not to permit carry-over of an effective vaccine to the next year.

The companies scientists have examined the sequences of the common influenza strain proteins published in PubMed by the U.S. National Library of Medicine. Rather than the expected universal random substitutions, we identified an unsubstituted fixed scaffold in the hemagglutinin protein. In H5N1, an orderly internal substitution in the scaffold was conserved from 1959 to the present (Figure).

In addition, the company found structural homology with peptides in other influenza strains, H1N1, H1N2, H2N2, H3N2, H5N2, and H7N7, also shown in the Figure. This provides a first glimpse of a memory process which has conserved parts of this peptide sequence scaffold for 86 years, through different strain-dominant epidemics and three influenza pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968.

The company has synthesized target peptides, found them to be highly immunogenic, and are now entering the target peptides in multi-strain efficacy vaccine trials.
 
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Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

Virus Replication Discovery Helps Predict Epidemics

[This is a press release from Replikins, Ltd., not an article by a neutral reporter]


Rising H5N1 'Bird Flu' High-Virulence Sequences Found By Replikins, Ltd.
BOSTON, Nov. 6, 2006 --

Replikins, Ltd. has completed a comprehensive quantitative analysis of H5N1 "bird flu" peptide sequences found in humans infected with H5N1 in the past nine years.

The data, obtained from public sources, included 1,455 complete sequences from human specimens. The company has found a continuous and statistically significant increase in the concentration of peptide sub-sequences (previously linked to epidemics) in the H5N1 virus over the past nine years, suggesting a heightened potential for an epidemic outbreak in humans. The replikin concentration in H5N1 has been found to rise steadily, by a factor of 2.5 over the period covered, from 1997 to 2006, from a mean count of 1.9 to the current count of 4.8 units per 100 amino acids (Replikin Count(TM)). Over the period covered by the study, the mortality rate in human H5N1 cases has in fact also increased by a multiple (2.3 times), from 26 percent in 1997 to 60 percent in 2006, a rise comparable to the increase in the concentration of the replikin sub-sequences.

While a direct causal relationship has not yet been shown, each previous increase in the concentration of replikin protein sub-sequences in flu viruses has been associated with strain-specific influenza epidemics that have occurred in the great pandemics of the last century: in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The same structure of the replikin peptide sub-sequences in influenza now can be traced back from the present to 1917. This conserved structure may be a key to the design of synthetic vaccines whose composition would not have to be changed every year.

Using proprietary technology, Replikins, Ltd. has discovered and defined a group of virus protein sub-sequences - called replikins - which can be used to predict whether a virus is rapidly replicating and whether it is likely to spread.

Replikins, Ltd. has also developed software (FluForecast(R)) which can now detect and count these proteins, which may allow scientists to better predict outbreaks of viral epidemics including H5N1.

Such predictions have been made correctly in advance by the company for the last three "bird flu" (H5N1) outbreaks from 2002 to the present. Prior to this discovery, no protein or other biological phenomenon has been found to correlate directly and quantitatively with viral epidemics. As a result, researchers have had no means to predict if, and what strain of a given viral organism will become a public health threat.

The current concern over when or if there will be an avian flu epidemic in humans has drawn attention to the need for improved measures to help predict, prevent and prepare for emerging health threats.

Dr. Sam Bogoch, Founder of Replikins, Ltd. explained that the finding in human H5N1 virus is significant because, "Combined with the software that analyzes viral strains, we now - for the first time - have an objective quantitative means of determining the threat level of a virus."

"To our knowledge, there is no other product which provides this quantitative predictive information." In explaining how the Replikins proteins were identified, Dr. Bogoch, who also founded the Neurochemistry Laboratory at Harvard Medical School, said, "After discovering the relationship of the structure of the sub-sequence replikin peptides to rapid replication in other infectious organisms, we focused on the influenza virus, because the CDC has epidemiological data available going back nearly 100 years. We discovered that a consistent sub-sequence of peptides increased in concentration in all influenza virus outbreaks."

Contact:

Carol Zepp Public Relations
carolzepppr@yahoo.com
978-468-8080

Corporate:

Ann Borsanyi, CEO, Replikins, Ltd.
aborsanyi@replikins.com
617-536-9711
 
Re: Replikins forecast

Re: Replikins forecast

As we all know, H1N1 is not supposed to slow down anytime in the near future.

If we all know it's not supposed to slow down, why do we need Replikins to tell us?
 
Re: Replikins forecast

Re: Replikins forecast

I googled 'widgets' and got 125,000,000 results. I googled 'balderdash' and got 540,000 results. I googled 'replikins' and got 7,503 results.

I googled 'snicklefritz' and got 17,600 results.

Hey! I have more internet presence than 'Replikins'...go figure it? :)
 
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