Vallat - OIE Remarks Clarified

[sharon sanders]

Re: Vallat - OIE Remarks Clarified

Vallat said, "Dr Vallat also said that while no one can predict when and how a human influenza pandemic will occur..."

Dr Vallat, are you a defeatist?
On what basis do you say that no one can predict how a human influenza pandemic will occur?
Are you saying that no one can predict the day and hour or the minute and second?
Are you saying there is no way to predict until the event occurs, and then there will be a fact trail to follow, looking backwards, so one can say that some then identifiable moment was the start of the pandemic?
Is this not analogous to weather predicting? For example, is it foolish for the weather bureau to look at tropical depressions and then guess in advance if they will become hurricaines, or to look at hurricaines and predict which direction they will move or how severe they may become?

Dr Vallart, I find your comments to be a poor example of a scientifically enquiring mind. Failure to exhaust every avenue, to examine every idea, especially one that has proven predictions associated with it, such as homologous recombination, to be less than responsible on your part, on the part of the organization you lead, and on the part of the many colleagues who firmly believe there is no other answer than reassortment.

I believe your thought pattern and theirs is reckless, and for me, that's a kind description of the completely unsupportable position you and they espouse.

Dr. Vallat is correct. It is impossible to calculate with any precision when a pandemic may occur. Nature is a very complicated set of innumerable interactions. Also impossible to predict is the exact set of circumstances that will lead to a H5N1 (or variant) pandemic.

Recombination is not the answer to all things pandemic. It is a piece of the puzzle - along with random mutation, reassortment, dual infection, vectors, resistance, viral load, etc., etc., etc.

The OIE has been very proactive in the fight against zoonotic disease. Are they perfect. No. Is anyone?

Stop the personal attacks. It reflects badly on your intellect. Win your point on the merits of your argument, not the ferocity of your attack.