Commonground
Senior Moderator
Re: Vaccine Orders -
Re: Vaccine Orders -
APPENDIX B
H1N1 COUNTERMEASURES STRATEGY AND
DECISION-MAKING FORUM
DETAILED REPORT
PANDEMIC INFLUENZA WORKING GROUP (PIWG)
NATIONAL BIODEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD
JULY 2009
Update: Domestic and International Surveillance Update and Plans?CAPT Anthony Fiore, M.D., M.P.H., CDC
excerpt:
CDC is working to increase funding for reporting and field staff. It faces challenges in obtaining representative samples of the virus from other countries. In countries with less surveillance in place, CDC faces challenges in interpreting the data it receives.
What U.S. program captures severe pneumonia cases?
CAPT Fiore: The Emerging Infections Program (EIP). We have good surveillance of hospitalization. In the early weeks of the outbreak, there were few cases of influenza in the States where we had surveillance projects. I think that?s changing as we get EIP data. We reinstated that and increased its funding. The new National Vaccine Surveillance Network also has that capability.
[Unidentified]: You need to get surveillance on teens and young adults.
CAPT Fiore: The EIP will be useful there.
Mr. Ferguson: We?ve considered that. The 1957 pandemic was truly novel, and it is similar to novel H1N1. Age-specific attack rates vary by pandemic. Attack rates could be two to three times higher than seasonal influenza. Even a bad year of seasonal influenza has only a 10% attack rate, and it?s concentrated in kids and the elderly. I think we should be planning for an event three times as bad as a bad seasonal influenza year in terms of clinical disease.
Terry Adirim, M.D., M.P.H.: Has there been any thought about triggers for de-escalation of mitigation strategies?
Dr. Robinson: Part of our planning has been to include exit ramps. The next one would be in September. On the basis of clinical data and surveillance, would we buy more antigen and adjuvant?
Dr. Pavia: After this meeting, you should look more closely at CAPT Fiore?s data to determine the likelihood of an exit point at which we don?t vaccinate. But that?s not terribly relevant right now.
James James. M.D., Dr.P.H., M.H.A.: Considering the wave nature of pandemics, when you model, how do you handle background immunity or herd immunity? How does that translate into vaccine-sparing policies?
Mr. Ferguson: It?s relatively easy with models; they allow for different susceptibility for different age groups and can take into account background immunity. With an epidemic, we run various scenarios and evaluate what the current situation implies about immunity in the fall. However, we need more data to validate those projections. We could have 3 million to 20 million people infected by September. We need serologic data to resolve some questions.
Fred Hayden, M.D.: How do existing population susceptibility patterns affect your projections of background immunity? If you look at age patterns using attack rates to date, if there were no changes in viral antigenicity and given background immunity, could there be less impact?
Mr. Ferguson: How much seasonal influenza spread impedes the spread of the pandemic and how much background immunity slows spread are difficult to untangle. Looking at South America, if only a small percentage is infected by September, we could see explosive spread in September. That should be a planning assumption. If later data show that lots of people are already infected, that could affect decision-making.
Dr. Hayden: Is there a drift variant of H3N2?
Dr. Katz: We don?t have data, but I have heard that the WHO Collaborating Centers are looking at it and characterizing strains of H3N2.
Dr. Modlin: Children have higher attack rates, and some of the most serious disease is occurring in young children, including those zero to six months old. That group is not currently targeted for vaccine. That group is difficult to surveil and has a high rate of respiratory disease. They will not have maternal antibodies. We should think about surveillance in this special population, because we may recommend extending vaccine to the very young.
Dr. Pavia: The National Vaccine Surveillance Network might capture that, and there may be some surveillance in certain cities. I don?t expect us to answer all the questions we?ve raised. We should be thinking about which of those questions will influence decision-makers, such as severity of disease and age-specific risk groups.
Dr. Lambert commented that the lessons learned from NIH?s H5N1 influenza vaccine clinical trials were enormous.
http://www.hhs.gov/aspr/conferences/nbsb/nbsb-h1n1forum-sum-090617.pdf
Re: Vaccine Orders -
APPENDIX B
H1N1 COUNTERMEASURES STRATEGY AND
DECISION-MAKING FORUM
DETAILED REPORT
PANDEMIC INFLUENZA WORKING GROUP (PIWG)
NATIONAL BIODEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD
JULY 2009
Update: Domestic and International Surveillance Update and Plans?CAPT Anthony Fiore, M.D., M.P.H., CDC
excerpt:
CDC is working to increase funding for reporting and field staff. It faces challenges in obtaining representative samples of the virus from other countries. In countries with less surveillance in place, CDC faces challenges in interpreting the data it receives.
What U.S. program captures severe pneumonia cases?
CAPT Fiore: The Emerging Infections Program (EIP). We have good surveillance of hospitalization. In the early weeks of the outbreak, there were few cases of influenza in the States where we had surveillance projects. I think that?s changing as we get EIP data. We reinstated that and increased its funding. The new National Vaccine Surveillance Network also has that capability.
[Unidentified]: You need to get surveillance on teens and young adults.
CAPT Fiore: The EIP will be useful there.
Mr. Ferguson: We?ve considered that. The 1957 pandemic was truly novel, and it is similar to novel H1N1. Age-specific attack rates vary by pandemic. Attack rates could be two to three times higher than seasonal influenza. Even a bad year of seasonal influenza has only a 10% attack rate, and it?s concentrated in kids and the elderly. I think we should be planning for an event three times as bad as a bad seasonal influenza year in terms of clinical disease.
Terry Adirim, M.D., M.P.H.: Has there been any thought about triggers for de-escalation of mitigation strategies?
Dr. Robinson: Part of our planning has been to include exit ramps. The next one would be in September. On the basis of clinical data and surveillance, would we buy more antigen and adjuvant?
Dr. Pavia: After this meeting, you should look more closely at CAPT Fiore?s data to determine the likelihood of an exit point at which we don?t vaccinate. But that?s not terribly relevant right now.
James James. M.D., Dr.P.H., M.H.A.: Considering the wave nature of pandemics, when you model, how do you handle background immunity or herd immunity? How does that translate into vaccine-sparing policies?
Mr. Ferguson: It?s relatively easy with models; they allow for different susceptibility for different age groups and can take into account background immunity. With an epidemic, we run various scenarios and evaluate what the current situation implies about immunity in the fall. However, we need more data to validate those projections. We could have 3 million to 20 million people infected by September. We need serologic data to resolve some questions.
Fred Hayden, M.D.: How do existing population susceptibility patterns affect your projections of background immunity? If you look at age patterns using attack rates to date, if there were no changes in viral antigenicity and given background immunity, could there be less impact?
Mr. Ferguson: How much seasonal influenza spread impedes the spread of the pandemic and how much background immunity slows spread are difficult to untangle. Looking at South America, if only a small percentage is infected by September, we could see explosive spread in September. That should be a planning assumption. If later data show that lots of people are already infected, that could affect decision-making.
Dr. Hayden: Is there a drift variant of H3N2?
Dr. Katz: We don?t have data, but I have heard that the WHO Collaborating Centers are looking at it and characterizing strains of H3N2.
Dr. Modlin: Children have higher attack rates, and some of the most serious disease is occurring in young children, including those zero to six months old. That group is not currently targeted for vaccine. That group is difficult to surveil and has a high rate of respiratory disease. They will not have maternal antibodies. We should think about surveillance in this special population, because we may recommend extending vaccine to the very young.
Dr. Pavia: The National Vaccine Surveillance Network might capture that, and there may be some surveillance in certain cities. I don?t expect us to answer all the questions we?ve raised. We should be thinking about which of those questions will influence decision-makers, such as severity of disease and age-specific risk groups.
Dr. Lambert commented that the lessons learned from NIH?s H5N1 influenza vaccine clinical trials were enormous.
http://www.hhs.gov/aspr/conferences/nbsb/nbsb-h1n1forum-sum-090617.pdf