On June 21st, I attended the Rappahannock-Rapidan Regional Bird Flu Summit at Culpeper High School. This summit followed the invitation-only Virginia State Summit on March 23 in Richmond, and a bird flu seminar held in April at Fauquier Hospital, Warrenton.
Of the 1,800 invitations that were mailed out, only 200 people came - and many of these folks, like myself, heard about the summit from media releases and \"word of mouth,\" not the targeted invitations.
One of our State representatives, Mr. Ed Scott attended, but where were the heads of major companies and utilities? Where were the high level leadership of religious organizations, non-profits and other volunteer organizations? In short, where were the real decision-makers and primary leaders of our communities?
Surely, some must have come, but if they did, they maintained a very low profile because I didn't see or hear any of them, and I'm sure they would have seen and heard me.
My feelings about the summit are mixed. Dr. Lillian Peake, director of the Rappahannock-Rapidan region of the Virginia public health department, is a superlative speaker. VDOH's veterinary epidemiologist, Dr. Julia Murphy, presented an excellent overview of the possible bird flu pandemic.
I have great respect for Dr. Peake and the difficult task ahead of her and her colleagues, but it is becoming increasing obvious to me and others who are paying close attention to the course of the bird flu situation, that not enough is being done to really get the public's attention.
In accordance with the current \"official\" government story - aimed at not panicking the public - Dr. Peake presented statistics that were based on the relatively mild 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics, rather than what is truly considered the worst case scenario of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20. She also used the lowest estimates of the deaths for the Spanish Flu; i.e., 20-40 million, though many experts are now leaning toward 100 million as being the actual number of deaths worldwide. India alone suffered more than 20 million.
I appreciated the fact that the Summit included a panel of government leaders from the five counties - Frank Bossio, Culpeper County Administrator; Catherine Heritage, Assistant County Administrator, Fauquier; Carl Pumphrey, Madison County's Director of Emergency Services; Theodore Coberly, Assistant County Administrator, Orange; John McCarthy, Rappahannock County Administrator and member of the board of directors of Fauquier Hospital.
And I also appreciated their willingness to honestly answer some very pointed questions from the floor. Unfortunately, too many of the answers were \"we're discussing this,\" or \"we've thought about that,\" or \"we plan to meet on that,\" and not enough of \"we have accomplished this\" or \"we are ready and prepared with ....\"
A lot of the problems facing the counties are complicated by a serious lack of funding, funding that will not be forthcoming. As Mr. McCarthy so succinctly put it, \"the state is looking for the biggest bang for its buck,\" and that means money will go to Northern Virginia before it comes to more rural, less densely populated areas.
With the federal government saying over and over that \"the cavalry is NOT coming\" and that states and local governments should plan on being entirely on their own, it's critical that individuals and their communities prepare as best they can for a situation comparable to 50,000 simultaneous Hurricane Katrinas.
As HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt recently explained, any action we take in advance of a pandemic may seem premature and excessive, but anything we do after the pandemic breaks out will seem \"woefully inadequate.\"
People everywhere are suffering from what I call \"Bird Flu Boredom.\" Nothing much has happened in their own neighborhoods, so obviously it's all hype and they can get on to the next crisis in their lives. However, it's crucial that the media pick up this topic and keep it in front of the public until the criticality of the message sinks in. Too many people still don't \"get it.\"
The human situation in Indonesia is very dangerous. In a repeat of last year's events, bird die offs are spreading throughout Russia and China. Chinese scientists have recently published information in the New England Journal of Medicine that the first case of H5N1 occurred in China in 2003, not in 2005 as reported by the Chinese government.
In response, the Chinese government has recently cracked down even harder on its newspapers and other media, threatening serious financial and political repercussions.
Between the wars, plagues, droughts and HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa, there is no way to know what is really happening on that continent as regards to bird flu in humans. Even the extremely conservative World Health Organization admits that it has no idea what the real extent of human bird flu infection is throughout the world.
People must be made to understand that an influenza pandemic is a very real threat that can occur at any time and with very little warning. The influenza virus mutates at an incredible rate, millions of times a day. Every time a person, bird or other animal is infected, there is an opportunity for the virus to obtain the ability to pass easily from human to human. H5N1 has already proven that it can do so to a limited extent.
Whether H5N1 will actually be the pandemic virus is anybody's guess, but it's a sure thing that there will eventually be an influenza pandemic. If it is H5N1, and it retains its present ability to kill and disable, the impact on society will be devastating.
In my opinion, the government is too concerned with not frightening the public. Frankly, they need to get frightened. Fear is a great motivator. For the first time in history, we are able to watch a pandemic develop. It has been compared to watching a train wreck in slow motion. Before the crash happens, we have an opportunity to prepare - to lay in supplies, to develop solutions to the weaknesses in our public health system, to improve surge capacity in our hospitals, and, most important, to inform the public. There is a tremendous lot to do.
I believe that most Americans are mature enough to understand and accept the truth. We have got to get the public's attention before this, or any other widespread public health disaster, happens. And despite of the fact that they are working as hard as they can as fast as they can, with a restricted budget and limited manpower, the personnel of our public health department obviously can't do the job alone.
I look to each of you, the media and anyone reading this, to take it upon yourselves to get more educated and more prepared, and to share what you learn with your family and friends.
Of the 1,800 invitations that were mailed out, only 200 people came - and many of these folks, like myself, heard about the summit from media releases and \"word of mouth,\" not the targeted invitations.
One of our State representatives, Mr. Ed Scott attended, but where were the heads of major companies and utilities? Where were the high level leadership of religious organizations, non-profits and other volunteer organizations? In short, where were the real decision-makers and primary leaders of our communities?
Surely, some must have come, but if they did, they maintained a very low profile because I didn't see or hear any of them, and I'm sure they would have seen and heard me.
My feelings about the summit are mixed. Dr. Lillian Peake, director of the Rappahannock-Rapidan region of the Virginia public health department, is a superlative speaker. VDOH's veterinary epidemiologist, Dr. Julia Murphy, presented an excellent overview of the possible bird flu pandemic.
I have great respect for Dr. Peake and the difficult task ahead of her and her colleagues, but it is becoming increasing obvious to me and others who are paying close attention to the course of the bird flu situation, that not enough is being done to really get the public's attention.
In accordance with the current \"official\" government story - aimed at not panicking the public - Dr. Peake presented statistics that were based on the relatively mild 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics, rather than what is truly considered the worst case scenario of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20. She also used the lowest estimates of the deaths for the Spanish Flu; i.e., 20-40 million, though many experts are now leaning toward 100 million as being the actual number of deaths worldwide. India alone suffered more than 20 million.
I appreciated the fact that the Summit included a panel of government leaders from the five counties - Frank Bossio, Culpeper County Administrator; Catherine Heritage, Assistant County Administrator, Fauquier; Carl Pumphrey, Madison County's Director of Emergency Services; Theodore Coberly, Assistant County Administrator, Orange; John McCarthy, Rappahannock County Administrator and member of the board of directors of Fauquier Hospital.
And I also appreciated their willingness to honestly answer some very pointed questions from the floor. Unfortunately, too many of the answers were \"we're discussing this,\" or \"we've thought about that,\" or \"we plan to meet on that,\" and not enough of \"we have accomplished this\" or \"we are ready and prepared with ....\"
A lot of the problems facing the counties are complicated by a serious lack of funding, funding that will not be forthcoming. As Mr. McCarthy so succinctly put it, \"the state is looking for the biggest bang for its buck,\" and that means money will go to Northern Virginia before it comes to more rural, less densely populated areas.
With the federal government saying over and over that \"the cavalry is NOT coming\" and that states and local governments should plan on being entirely on their own, it's critical that individuals and their communities prepare as best they can for a situation comparable to 50,000 simultaneous Hurricane Katrinas.
As HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt recently explained, any action we take in advance of a pandemic may seem premature and excessive, but anything we do after the pandemic breaks out will seem \"woefully inadequate.\"
People everywhere are suffering from what I call \"Bird Flu Boredom.\" Nothing much has happened in their own neighborhoods, so obviously it's all hype and they can get on to the next crisis in their lives. However, it's crucial that the media pick up this topic and keep it in front of the public until the criticality of the message sinks in. Too many people still don't \"get it.\"
The human situation in Indonesia is very dangerous. In a repeat of last year's events, bird die offs are spreading throughout Russia and China. Chinese scientists have recently published information in the New England Journal of Medicine that the first case of H5N1 occurred in China in 2003, not in 2005 as reported by the Chinese government.
In response, the Chinese government has recently cracked down even harder on its newspapers and other media, threatening serious financial and political repercussions.
Between the wars, plagues, droughts and HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa, there is no way to know what is really happening on that continent as regards to bird flu in humans. Even the extremely conservative World Health Organization admits that it has no idea what the real extent of human bird flu infection is throughout the world.
People must be made to understand that an influenza pandemic is a very real threat that can occur at any time and with very little warning. The influenza virus mutates at an incredible rate, millions of times a day. Every time a person, bird or other animal is infected, there is an opportunity for the virus to obtain the ability to pass easily from human to human. H5N1 has already proven that it can do so to a limited extent.
Whether H5N1 will actually be the pandemic virus is anybody's guess, but it's a sure thing that there will eventually be an influenza pandemic. If it is H5N1, and it retains its present ability to kill and disable, the impact on society will be devastating.
In my opinion, the government is too concerned with not frightening the public. Frankly, they need to get frightened. Fear is a great motivator. For the first time in history, we are able to watch a pandemic develop. It has been compared to watching a train wreck in slow motion. Before the crash happens, we have an opportunity to prepare - to lay in supplies, to develop solutions to the weaknesses in our public health system, to improve surge capacity in our hospitals, and, most important, to inform the public. There is a tremendous lot to do.
I believe that most Americans are mature enough to understand and accept the truth. We have got to get the public's attention before this, or any other widespread public health disaster, happens. And despite of the fact that they are working as hard as they can as fast as they can, with a restricted budget and limited manpower, the personnel of our public health department obviously can't do the job alone.
I look to each of you, the media and anyone reading this, to take it upon yourselves to get more educated and more prepared, and to share what you learn with your family and friends.
