JimO
Well-known member
Re: Utah public health gives CDC fall severity estimate
The assumptions made to indicate more deaths than seasonal flu are fairly conservative, in my opinion. They are assuming a CFR of 0.1 to 0.5. The low end of that scale is at the low end of seasonal flu CFRs. What is probably going to drive the numbers up is the infection rate. Experience to date has indicated that this strain will have a higher infection rate than seasonal flu. Thus, even with a similar CFR, the total deaths could easily be 3 to 5 times that from seasonal flu.
Where we get into real trouble is if the virus mutates and increases the CFR coupled with a higher infection rate.
The assumptions made to indicate more deaths than seasonal flu are fairly conservative, in my opinion. They are assuming a CFR of 0.1 to 0.5. The low end of that scale is at the low end of seasonal flu CFRs. What is probably going to drive the numbers up is the infection rate. Experience to date has indicated that this strain will have a higher infection rate than seasonal flu. Thus, even with a similar CFR, the total deaths could easily be 3 to 5 times that from seasonal flu.
Where we get into real trouble is if the virus mutates and increases the CFR coupled with a higher infection rate.