USDA - Grain Production to Reach Record Levels 2008-09

[sharon sanders]

Grain production to reach record levels

By Chris Flood
Published: May 9 2008 21:15 | Last updated: May 9 2008 21:15

<script type="text/javascript" language="javascript"> function floatContent(){var paraNum = "3" paraNum = paraNum - 1;var tb = document.getElementById('floating-con');var nl = document.getElementById('floating-target');if(tb.getElementsByTagName("div").length> 0){if (nl.getElementsByTagName("p").length>= paraNum){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[paraNum]);}else {if (nl.getElementsByTagName("p").length == 3){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[2]);}else {nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName("p")[0]);}}}}</script>Global production of wheat and rice will reach record levels this year as farmers respond to high prices and strong demand, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which on Friday published its first forecasts for US and global agricultural output and stocks in 2008-9.
The world will produce a record 656m tonnes of wheat in the year starting in July, up 8.2 per cent on the previous year, but this may not be enough to restore a comfortable supply buffer to the world market. Global wheat stocks have shrunk to their lowest level since 1978 and a limited recovery is forecast this year, with inventories expected to rise 13 per cent to 124m tonnes.
?The USDA increased world wheat production more than most people expected, and yet inventories are still tight,?? said Jerry Gidel, analyst at North American Risk Management Services.
US farmers are expected to produce the largest wheat harvest for a decade this year with production expected to rise 15.7 per cent to 2.392bn bushels in 2008-9.
CBOT May wheat fell 29 cents to $7.80 a bushel on Friday, close to its lowest level for six months.
Abah Ofon of Standard Chartered said: ?The improvement in global wheat supplies is encouraging and this should in turn allow some rice-exporting countries to lift the recent supply restrictions which have been imposed. This would allow rice exports to rise and prices should start to ease?
A big surprise from the report was the projection that global soyabean stocks would decline and US inventories only recover slightly in spite of a rise of more than a fifth to 3.105bn bushels in US production in 2008-9. CBOT May soyabeans rose 33? cents to $13.32 a bushel after the USDA said global stocks would decline by 22.2 per cent to 49.04m tonnes.
?In spite of a large increase in US land devoted to soyabean production, we appear unable to build stocks because global demand is rising even faster,? said Gavin Maguire of Iowa Grain.
Corn prices surged to record levels in Chicago after the USDA forecast a rapid decline in corn stocks by the end of 2008-9, down 44.8 per cent to 763bn bushels, the lowest since 1996.
Corn output is expected to fall 7.3 per cent this year while demand for ethanol use is expected to rise by one-third to 4bn bushels next year. Ethanol will eat up 33 per cent of next year?s US corn harvest, up from 22.9 per cent in 2007-8.
Lewis Hagedorn, of JPMorgan in Chicago, said: ?The trajectory of all agricultural markets towards lower inventories and increased dependence upon optimal production outcomes suggest that price risk for the coming year will remain decisively to the upside.?


Prices for food will go up - Fla1



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b389a42c-1df5-11dd-983a-000077b07658.html

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: USDA - Grain Production to Reach Record Levels 2008-09

These forecasts where known by insiders of big chains, there is still time for sales point to buy at low cost dry goods like pasta, rice, grains like chick peas, lentils, couscous, etc..

Difficult to deal with

First the question of wharehousing, sanitery regulations is an obstacle in renting place for storage at cheap price and asap.

The sole pragmatic cheap solutions is to buy 42 feet float box ans sit it in the wharehouse back doors then to move it to kind of garages.

Unperishable (4 months) dry goods cost an average of 50 000$ per box, in three months it is expected to generate average of 40% mark ups minus cost of storing and lost on cash flow.

By giving a 10% reduction from average price they have a lead.

Not worth for surfaces under 200 000$ of sales per week.

For families, swing on pasta, rice and dry cick peas ans lentils now.

Buying 40$ a Week now will save 40$ per month in september, but he real advantae is Health for low income by good basics.

Powder proteins stoks on shelves will rise 100 %. Good alternative.

Multi-vitamines now are still cheap.

The Squirrel syndrome is mainly instinctive, provides a security of food and health for six months if started now.

Squirrels get out only around noon in the winter (highest temperature of the day).

The winter environnment had consition squirrel to get out short and sweet because of adverse environment dangerous for the Health, with the reserve they then can get out short and seet. With no Squirrel Nest, one<s will="" have="" to="" be="" longer="" more="" often="" in="" adverse="" environment,="" not="" good="" for="" psychological="" and="" physiological="" health.="">

It is already expected than SAD will be widespread next Boreal Winter.

Time to embrace Squirrel Wisdom.

Snowy</s>