US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

[Chuck]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/all/6497460.html

US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million
By MIKE STOBBE AP Medical Writer ? 2009 The Associated Press
June 25, 2009, 2:03PM


ATLANTA ? Health officials estimate that as many as 1 million Americans now have the new swine flu.

Lyn Finelli, a flu surveillance official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, voiced the estimate at a vaccine advisory meeting Thursday in Atlanta.

The estimate is based on mathematical modeling. Nearly 28,000 U.S. cases have been reported to the CDC, accounting for roughly half the world's cases. The U.S. count includes 3,065 hospitalizations and 127 deaths.

An estimated 15 million to 60 million Americans catch seasonal flu each year.

 

[lchilberg]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

This little story is rapidly spreading. Each time I Google it, there are more hits. Maybe someone will pay attention.

 

[vt.mathgirl]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

This version of the story still has the CDC reporting 87 US deaths.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/hscout/2009/06/25/hscout628467.html?feed=rss_forbeslife_health

 

[vt.mathgirl]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

It bothers me that people don't have consistent, reliable information from the very sources they should be able to turn to. The report lists 127 deaths, the CDC chart lists 87... of course, the chart is dated 06/19. But that's 40 deaths in 6 days, from what the report describes as a disease "which continues to produce mild illness and a fairly quick recovery in patients."

 

[Lizw]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

It bothers me that people don't have consistent, reliable information from the very sources they should be able to turn to. The report lists 127 deaths, the CDC chart lists 87... of course, the chart is dated 06/19. But that's 40 deaths in 6 days, from what the report describes as a disease "which continues to produce mild illness and a fairly quick recovery in patients."

Some of those deaths occurred in May, and are only now being reported. But it's still an increasing rate.

 

[HenryN]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

It bothers me that people don't have consistent, reliable information from the very sources they should be able to turn to. The report lists 127 deaths, the CDC chart lists 87... of course, the chart is dated 06/19. But that's 40 deaths in 6 days, from what the report describes as a disease "which continues to produce mild illness and a fairly quick recovery in patients."

The US hit a million cases MANY weeks, if not months ago. When the CDC said 100,00 (when there were 5,000 confirmed cases), they began backing away from that number as soon as they said it.

Right now the number of US cases is WELL over 10 million.

 

[tropical]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

#1: ... modeling ... USA ... 1 milion infected ... (or 10 milion)


If reality support the above, it will be good news, because the real percent of serious/deadly cases maybe remains smaller.

But if that's only more spining ...

 

[pflu]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

The US hit a million cases MANY weeks, if not months ago. When the CDC said 100,00 (when there were 5,000 confirmed cases), they began backing away from that number as soon as they said it.

Right now the number of US cases is WELL over 10 million.

If there is 10 million cases (3-1/2% of the population) and if swine flu had the same hospitalization rate as mild seasonal flu (avg: .8%) we would have 80,000 people hospitalized right now.

It may feel like there are a lot of cases because of the stories we read, but 1 out of every 30 people in the US infected right now, I don't think so.

However if you are right, every single American will have gotten this by the end of summer and none of us will have to worry about wave 2.

 

[DeniseMc]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

Yes, how could there possibly be one million or ten million cases if we have had so few deaths? If that is the case, then this is a very, very, very mild pandemic.

 

[pflu]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

Yes, how could there possibly be one million or ten million cases if we have had so few deaths? If that is the case, then this is a very, very, very mild pandemic.

I agree and think the 1 million number is high. They keep upping the propaganda number as the hospitalization figures climb to make us think it's mild. The CDC is clueless as to the real figure, they have no historical data on a summer pandemic outbreak to base any estimate on.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

The US hit a million cases MANY weeks, if not months ago. When the CDC said 100,00 (when there were 5,000 confirmed cases), they began backing away from that number as soon as they said it.

Right now the number of US cases is WELL over 10 million.

I agree.

 

[pflu]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

I agree.

What underlying information are you using to conclude that there are more than 10 million people infected?

 

[JimO]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

If there is 10 million cases (3-1/2% of the population) and if swine flu had the same hospitalization rate as mild seasonal flu (avg: .8%) we would have 80,000 people hospitalized right now.

It may feel like there are a lot of cases because of the stories we read, but 1 out of every 30 people in the US infected right now, I don't think so.

However if you are right, every single American will have gotten this by the end of summer and none of us will have to worry about wave 2.

I tend to agree. I've come into contact with hundreds of people over the past month and none have had H1N1. Our company is on top of monitoring the situation internally and we have had only one case of an employee's family member being sick in the U.S. and Canada, where we have about 4,500 employees.

Frankly, I'm not convinced myself that even 1 million have been infected in the U.S.

 

[HenryN]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

Yes, how could there possibly be one million or ten million cases if we have had so few deaths? If that is the case, then this is a very, very, very mild pandemic.

This is a 1918 re-run. Right now most of the cases are relatively young. The vast majority of cases are 25-64 (just like 1918). For seasonal flu, this age group rarely dies or is even hospitalized. Pediatric deaths are reportable, and for seasonal flu, the number dead is less than 100 for the whole country for the YEAR. The VAST majority (over 90%) of seasonal flu deaths are 65 or over (and most of the over 65 are really in their 70's, 80's, and 90's with MAJOR underlying conditions).

The swine virus is adapting to humans. The deaths in Mexico were primarily previously healthy young adults between 20-45. The population in the US is similar. The rate appears to be increasing significantly in Argentina in the past few days.

Like 1918, the mild version spreads through the population, setting the stage for adaptation. It doesn't take much to go from hospitalized patients, to life support patients, to dead patients.

The virus knows what it is doing and the 1 million US victims is a VERY low estimate, Most older patients have a VERY mild version. They are not tested or hospitalized and VERY few die.

Right now the hospitalizations and deaths are more of a qualitative story (those in the hospital usually don't get very sick and RARELY die).

The virus is evolving and the NUMBERS will change.

 

[HenryN]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

What underlying information are you using to conclude that there are more than 10 million people infected?

25,000 confirmed cases (about the number of confirmations for seasonal flu in a typical season).

 

[HenryN]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

I agree and think the 1 million number is high. They keep upping the propaganda number as the hospitalization figures climb to make us think it's mild. The CDC is clueless as to the real figure, they have no historical data on a summer pandemic outbreak to base any estimate on.

I agree that 1 million is high for NY.

The CDC has confirmed cases, which translates into well over 10 million for the US.

The CDC has a VERY good idea of who they DON'T test (and in the summer almost all ILI is swine flu - no testing required).

 

[pflu]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

25,000 confirmed cases (about the number of confirmations for seasonal flu in a typical season).

So you multiplied 25,000 by 400 = 10,000,000. Problem is that you are comparing 12 months worth of seasonal flu to 2 months of new flu.

Lets ignore growth of flu, time of year, etc., you should at least divide by 6 (2mos. vs. 12mos) - that leaves you with less than 2 mil.

Most cases have accumulated in the last month as the new virus exponentially grew, estimate us back to 1 Million.

I can go lower but will stop there.

 

[pflu]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

We have all watched the CDC pump these numbers out, 50K - 200K -1 Mil.

My guess is that they are using the 3000 hospitalization figure and the CDC reported low end of the seasonal flu hospitalization rate. 3,000 / .3% is 1,000,000.

However it's a ridiculous overestimate as we don't know what the hospitalization rate is for Swine. High end of season is 1.3 which yields 230,000 cases.

I think swine has a higher hospitalization rate than seasonal and we all know that the actual hospitalization number is at least double the CDC. So let's just guess with 6000 at 2% = 300,000 cases.

300,000 is probably closer to how many are infected.

 

[thebes]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

I tend to agree. I've come into contact with hundreds of people over the past month and none have had H1N1. Our company is on top of monitoring the situation internally and we have had only one case of an employee's family member being sick in the U.S. and Canada, where we have about 4,500 employees.

Frankly, I'm not convinced myself that even 1 million have been infected in the U.S.

I agree. I have 3 kids under 12 who all go to different schools - none of them or their friends have been sick at all. My husband works at a large firm, travels a lot and only knows of one colleague who may have had it in late April after returning from Belize. My family in California doesn't know anyone who's been sick....you get the picture. There's no way 10 million Americans have had it.

 

[pflu]

Re: US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit 1 Million

The media missed the headlines as usual on this one. The real story isn't the silly mathematically modeled estimate which was probably just some division of two figures.


From the articles...

"over one in 10 reported cases have sent patients to the hospital"


Wow! That's 1 Million people that have gone to the hospital, wait it says over one, in CDC language that means 1.9 and that's 1.9 million have gone to the hospital.


"the CDC estimates. Half those cases have been in New York City"


That's nearly 1 Million in NYC alone, most of which probably went to the hospital in the last 5 to 6 weeks.


"An analysis of 99 of the 127 U.S. residents who have died of swine flu shows that 87 of them suffered underlying conditions:

* 11% had asthma
* 24% had other lung diseases
* 13% had diabetes
* 11% were morbidly obese
* 34% were obese
"

That's 68% has underlying conditions, but 30 were simply overweight (I didn't include morbidly obese, just obese) which means that only 44% of the deaths so far had underlying conditions.




http://www.justnews.com/health/19859292/detail.html

http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20090625/1-million-swine-flu-cases-in-us