US %ILI Week 41

[JimO]

Source: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/updates/us/

Well, we're at the highest level in three years and still going up.

 

[Rainbow Lake]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

Frightening graph JimO.

After looking at the CDC update, I decided to see what was happening in Canada. I had read a comment by one of the Canadian experts that things were not as bad as they had anticipated. Today's CDC update shows that since 1 September, 2,827 people had died in the US from H1N1 or associated conditions. Since the population of the US is ten times that of Canada, one would expect about 282 deaths in Canada. I checked the official Canadian site. There have been 14 deaths since 1 September (a total of 86 since April).

Could someone please speculate on why there is such a huge difference (14 actual versus the 282 deaths one would expect based on the U.S. experience).

Is it due to denser population?
Is Canada just offset in time because the schools opened later and the peak will occur later?
I understood climate had been ruled out as a factor so the cooler climate is not an explanation.

It is a difference that begs an explanation.

 

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

For Canada: "The national crude hospitalization rate was 4.8 per 100,000 population with the highest rates in children under 15 years of age (11.2 per 100,000). The national crude mortality rate was 0.25 per 100,000 population; those 45 years and older had the highest mortality rate (0.36 per 100,000). ICU admission rate and ventilation rate were also elevated in children under five years of age (1.7 and 1.1 per 100,000, respectively)."
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/fluwatch/09-10/w41_09/index-eng.php#t1

 

[Zac]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

Does anyone have the data going back further in time? I found these plots that go back to October 2000.

 

[gsgs]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

I should have it for some decades, USA,France,Australia
posted on FGA some years ago

----------------
... that was mortality data
http://www.influenzah5n1.fr/index.php?topic=9304.0



USA ILI-data see here:
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewtopic.php?t=278&mforum=fluwiki2

http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewforum.php?f=15&mforum=fluwiki2
France ILI 1984-2007, 22 regions

computer-readable




weekly CDC-influenza-data 1997-2008 in computer-readable form:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/cdct13

correlation coefficients:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/cdct13.cor

normalized graphs for the 10 regions:
http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/CDCTGR1.GIF

 

[Zac]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

I found this data from CDC:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ussurvdata.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivity.htm

This was a spike in fatalities in 2000:

This year in comparison:

 

[Zac]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

 

[Farmer]

Re: US %ILI Week 41

Thanks for the historical context Zac.

As I recall, 03 - 04 was the season that prompted the establishment of pediatric influenza death surveillance.