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US - Hurricane Dorian - Now forecast to be a category 4 landing in Florida - some links, updates - August 30, 2019

The NOAA site with updates: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/115127.shtml?key_messages#contents

dorian.PNG
 
Bob Breck Blog -

SATURDAY, AUGUST 31, 2019

Radical Shift in Track...

During my 4+ decades tracking hurricanes, I?ve seen how conservative the NHC is in making major track changes. They hate to flip-flop with each new model run so usually they just ?tweak? the centerline track position. Not overnight. I mentioned in my last post 3 scenarios, one being a shift to the east BEFORE Dorian reaches FLA. NHC now has that scenario. Does it mean FLA. is spared? Not yet since much of the state is still in the cone. Plus, the turn hasn?t happened yet! (Remember mass + momentum equation). Dorian is nearing Cat. 5 and will be harder to make radical turn. But that?s what the models say will happen. Sure the threat has lessened for FLA. but it?s not zero. He has a spectacular satellite presentation and is a beast. Let?s hope the model trends prove correct.
...
http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/
 
Louisiana sends ambulances to Florida ahead of Hurricane Dorian

"Many states look for Louisiana?s support due to our experience and knowledge in dealing with emergencies,? the GOHSEP director said.

Author: Sean Brennan / WWL-TV
Published: 7:34 PM CDT August 31, 2019
Updated: 7:35 PM CDT August 31, 2019

NEW ORLEANS ? Louisiana has extended a helping hand to Florida ahead of Hurricane Dorian's potential landfall on the state in the coming days.

Ambulance teams made up of nearly three dozens units and 80 medical personnel arrived in Florida from Baton Rouge on Saturday, Louisiana state officials said.
...
https://www.wwltv.com/article/news/...rian/289-ef315ada-14fa-4e58-930b-0b03b8b44217
 
Dorian an Extreme Hurricane - Remains a Threat to Southeast US

Tropical Tidbits
Published on Aug 31, 2019

 
[FONT=&quot]Levi Cowan@TropicalTidbits 56m56 minutes ago More[/FONT]



[FONT=&quot]Unfortunately, #Dorian has intensified substantially overnight as it approaches the Abaco Islands (pop: 17,000). Estimated pressure from first recon pass is 925mb, and max winds may be at least 160 mph now. The storm does not appear to be able to avoid the island at this point.[/FONT]

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EDYIUDnW4AAnC5R.jpg


EDYIUFQXYAATYWJ.png
[/FONT]
 
Cat 5 Dorian Scouring the Bahamas; Impact to Florida Still Uncertain

Tropical Tidbits
Published on Sep 1, 2019

 
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone

Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019

100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...

CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE FLOODING LIKELY OCCURRING ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...

INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.6N 78.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

Forecaster Berg

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/020459.shtml
 
 
North Carolina -

Excessive rains, flooding from Hurricane Dorian may cause high bacteria levels in coastal waters

MOREHEAD CITY
Sep 3, 2019

State recreational water quality officials are advising the public to avoid swimming in all coastal waters of North Carolina following Hurricane Dorian.

?Severe weather events like hurricanes can bring excessive amounts of rain and cause extreme flooding. These conditions increase levels of harmful bacteria in our coastal waters that can cause illness,? said Erin Bryan-Millush, manager of the N.C. Recreational Water Quality Program. ?The source of bacteria varies from failing septic systems, sewer line breaks, overflowing manholes and wildlife.?

While state officials will not have immediate laboratory confirmation that disease-causing organisms are in the water, there is an increased chance that contamination will be present following the storm, and those swimming in these waters have an increased chance of adverse health effects.

Residents and visitors should avoid swimming in all coastal waters until testing indicates bacteria levels meet state and federal standards. Testing will begin as soon as conditions are safe to do so and areas are accessible. The advisory will be lifted in part or in whole as test results become available.

Recreational Water Quality officials test for enterococci, which is a bacteria group found in the intestines and fecal matter of warm-blooded animals. While it is not known to cause illness, scientific studies show that enterococci may indicate the presence of other disease-causing organisms such as e-coli, salmonella, norovirus.

Because waters affected by the storm likely will be widespread, signs will not be posted.

...
https://deq.nc.gov/news/press-relea...ding-hurricane-dorian-may-cause-high-bacteria
 
Counting bodies ?not the priority?: Bahamas not lying about Dorian deaths, health chief says

BY JIM WYSS, JACQUELINE CHARLES, AND NICHOLAS NEHAMAS

SEPTEMBER 08, 2019 02:13 PM, UPDATED 1 HOUR 13 MINUTES AGO

...
The slow pace of such work ? and a death toll that stands at just 44, despite photographs of massive devastation ? has led to wide speculation that the true number of dead is far higher...

But Duane Sands, the Bahamas? minister of health, says the government is not suppressing Hurricane Dorian?s death toll and is simply tallying confirmed deaths as the bodies arrive at the morgue. In an interview with the Miami Herald Sunday, Sands called information suggesting a cover-up ?false? and ?unfortunate.?

The body count ?is not the priority,? he said. ?The priority is find those people for their loved ones who are missing them; to take care, provide comfort to those people who are hurt, who are suffering, that?s the priority. To put food in people?s bellies, water in their throat.?
...
The Bahamas Ministry of Social Services and Urban Development has established a telephone line (242-323-1877) for the public wishing to register the names of family members with whom they have been unable to make contact.

...
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article234857817.html
 
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