TrueScotsman
Well-known member
Weekly pandemic flu media update
12 November 2009
KEY POINTS
The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme decreased to 36.0 per 100,000 in week 45 compared to 37.7 in week 44.
The main burden of flu-like illness nationally in week 45 is in the <1 and 1-4 years age groups.
This week, the antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service decreased in all age groups.
The recent half-term school holidays may have continued to influence the figures this week, and so it is difficult to predict future trends.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 64,000 new cases in England last week (range 32,000 to 140,000). This represents an 24% decrease on the previous week.
The HPA estimates a cumulative total number of cases of 668,000 (with a range 313,000 to 1,382,000 since the pandemic began
A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:
www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surveillance&epidemiology
CLINICAL INDICATORS
Current estimated weekly Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) consultation rates of flu-like illness
From a network of approximately 100 general practices covering a population of approximately 900,000 with an equal distribution within each of three defined reporting regions; North, Central and South.
In week 45 (ending 8 November) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England have shown a small decrease compared to the previous week (37.7 per 100,000 in week 44 to 36.0 per 100,000 in week 45) which is still above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
QSurveillance?
Set up by the University of Nottingham and EMIS (the main supplier of general practice computer systems within the UK) in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency. QSurveillance? is a not-for-profit network over 3,300 general practices covering a total population of almost 22 million patients (> 25% of the UK population).
The weekly QSurveillance? flu-like illness consultation rate showed a slight decrease from 48.5 per 100,000 in week 44.to 47.2 per 100,000 in week 45. The weekly rate for flu-like illness in all SHA regions and all age groups showed a mixed picture with some increasing and others decreasing.
NB: QSurveillance? is based on data from 43% of England's population (about 3000 practices), 10% of the population in Wales, 17% in Northern Ireland, and 0% in Scotland
Figure 2: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 45 (ending 8 November)
The latest weekly flu-like illness rates show that the highest flu-like illness consultation rates were in the <1 and 1-4 year-old age groups. Compared with week 44 this week (week 45) rates have increased in the 15-24 and all 45+ age bands but decreased in all <15 years age bands.
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 11 November 2009) 2,834 viruses have been analysed by the Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). Six viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK. In addition, 293 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility.
The Agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
There have been no significant changes in the virus.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 785 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 11 November).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 124 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
INTERNATIONAL SUMMARY
Total deaths reported : 6,592
In the last 7 days, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 5% - the same increase as reported last week.
12 November 2009
KEY POINTS
The consultation rate for flu-like illness in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme decreased to 36.0 per 100,000 in week 45 compared to 37.7 in week 44.
The main burden of flu-like illness nationally in week 45 is in the <1 and 1-4 years age groups.
This week, the antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service decreased in all age groups.
The recent half-term school holidays may have continued to influence the figures this week, and so it is difficult to predict future trends.
Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 64,000 new cases in England last week (range 32,000 to 140,000). This represents an 24% decrease on the previous week.
The HPA estimates a cumulative total number of cases of 668,000 (with a range 313,000 to 1,382,000 since the pandemic began
A more detailed UK weekly epidemiology update can be accessed at:
www.hpa.org.uk/swineflu/surveillance&epidemiology
CLINICAL INDICATORS
Current estimated weekly Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) consultation rates of flu-like illness
From a network of approximately 100 general practices covering a population of approximately 900,000 with an equal distribution within each of three defined reporting regions; North, Central and South.
In week 45 (ending 8 November) GP consultation rates for flu-like illness in England have shown a small decrease compared to the previous week (37.7 per 100,000 in week 44 to 36.0 per 100,000 in week 45) which is still above the English baseline threshold of 30/100,000.
Figure 1: Current estimated weekly RCGP consultation rates of flu-like illness
QSurveillance?
Set up by the University of Nottingham and EMIS (the main supplier of general practice computer systems within the UK) in collaboration with the Health Protection Agency. QSurveillance? is a not-for-profit network over 3,300 general practices covering a total population of almost 22 million patients (> 25% of the UK population).
The weekly QSurveillance? flu-like illness consultation rate showed a slight decrease from 48.5 per 100,000 in week 44.to 47.2 per 100,000 in week 45. The weekly rate for flu-like illness in all SHA regions and all age groups showed a mixed picture with some increasing and others decreasing.
NB: QSurveillance? is based on data from 43% of England's population (about 3000 practices), 10% of the population in Wales, 17% in Northern Ireland, and 0% in Scotland
Figure 2: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for flu-like illness in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (all ages)
Figure 3: QSurveillance? - weekly consultation rate for influenza-like illness by English SHA (all ages)
Figure 4: QSurveillance influenza-like illness rate by age band in week 45 (ending 8 November)
The latest weekly flu-like illness rates show that the highest flu-like illness consultation rates were in the <1 and 1-4 year-old age groups. Compared with week 44 this week (week 45) rates have increased in the 15-24 and all 45+ age bands but decreased in all <15 years age bands.
VIRAL CHARACTERISTICS
To date (as of 11 November 2009) 2,834 viruses have been analysed by the Centre for Infections for the genetic marker commonly associated with resistance to oseltamivir in seasonal H1N1 flu (H274Y). Six viruses have been found to carry this marker in the UK. In addition, 293 specimens have been fully tested for susceptibility.
The Agency is continually assessing its advice to government on health protection policies such as antiviral use. Currently there is no requirement to change existing guidance.
There have been no significant changes in the virus.
SEVERITY
Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.
Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 785 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 11 November).
Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England is 124 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu).
INTERNATIONAL SUMMARY
Total deaths reported : 6,592
In the last 7 days, the total number of deaths reported globally has increased by 5% - the same increase as reported last week.