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Ukraine War - Economic Consequences thread - February 24+

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...surance-for-russia-ukraine-sources/ar-AAW0K0T
Exclusive-AIG looks at cutting insurance for Russia, Ukraine -sources
By Noor Zainab Hussain and Carolyn Cohn - Apr 8

LONDON (Reuters) - AIG, one of the world's biggest commercial insurers, is considering cutting cover for Russia and Ukraine, to shield itself from the risk of hefty claims as sanctions ratchet up and the war drags on, an insurance broker and a source familiar with the matter said.

AIG is looking at adding exclusion clauses to policies for businesses operating in the region across a range of policies, according to the two sources who declined to be identified.

Other major insurers are also looking to exclude Russia, Ukraine and even Belarus from a range of policies, the sources said, citing some insurers and policyholders.

Reuters could not determine if the potential reduction in cover would apply across all AIG policies in the countries. The insurer declined to comment.

"What we are now seeing are the underwriters starting to introduce Russia, Ukraine wording into their policies," said Meredith Schnur, managing director, U.S. and Canada cyber brokerage leader at insurance broker Marsh, declining to name the insurers...
 
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-q1-operating-profit-rises-2022-04-22/
April 22, 20224:26 AM CDTLast Updated a day ago
Defence manufacturer Saab to boost capacity as profit climbs
By Helena Soderpalm
...
Shares in Saab have soared 65% this year as a growing number of countries announce increased defence budgets as a result of intensifying geopolitical tensions and the conflict in Ukraine.
...
Saab CEO Micael Johansson said that potential NATO membership for Sweden is a political question, but for the company he finds it "hard to see something negative" were Sweden to join.

"The market for our portfolio, I would say, generally grows in the NATO countries, giving more opportunities," he told Reuters, adding that competition would probably increase, too....
 
Saudi Aramco Posts Record Quarterly Profit On Surging Oil Prices

May 15, 2022
Nick J Adam

DUBAI—Saudi Aramco posted a record quarterly profit on Sunday, as the world’s most valuable company benefits from surging oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co., commonly known as Aramco, said its net income surged 82% to $39.5 billion in the first three months of 2022. Last week, it overtook Apple Inc. as the world’s most valuable company, with its market value rising to $2.4 trillion.

Aramco’s soaring profits offer an example of how the Ukraine invasion and rising oil prices have boosted the fortunes of petrostates such as Saudi Arabia. With oil prices rising as high as $139 a barrel in recent months and consistently above $100, Saudi Arabia has seen its fastest economic growth in a decade. ...

https://techilive.in/saudi-aramco-posts-record-quarterly-profit-on-surging-oil-prices/
 
Russia halts gas supplies to Finland

Published10 hours ago

Finland imports most of its gas from Russia but says it can cope with the disruption

Russia has halted its gas supply to Finland - the latest escalation of an energy payments row with the West.

Russia's gas giant Gazprom confirmed it had completely halted exports to Finland at 04:00 GMT on Saturday.

Finland said all the deliveries had stopped, but added there would be no disruption to customers.

Helsinki has been refusing to pay for its supplies in roubles. But the cut-off also follows an announcement that Finland will apply for Nato membership.

...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61524933
 
https://www.macaubusiness.com/out-of-the-frying-pan-indonesians-pay-price-of-cooking-oil-crisis/
Out of the frying pan: Indonesians pay price of cooking oil crisis
By AFP

...
As the war between the two major grain and sunflower seed producers sent jitters through global markets, many producers rushed to shift their goods abroad to cash in on soaring rates.

Setiana would travel to a supermarket over an hour from her remote East Java village of Baruharjo to buy a daily eight-litre batch of palm oil that could keep her business alive.

But the 49-year-old mother of two would be turned away, with sellers heavily rationing the commodity used in products ranging from cosmetics to chocolate spreads.

“I was fuming and told the employees that I really need the cooking oil for personal use, not for hoarding,” said Setiana, who used to make up to 750,000 rupiah ($52) a day selling her savoury yellow snack.

“How come we have cooking oil shortages when Indonesia is the world’s top palm oil producer?” ...
 
This war is starving Africa.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/te...o-demine-odessa-to-ease-wheat-exports-3844094
AU chair urges Ukraine to demine Odessa to ease wheat exports

Friday June 10 2022

By AFP
More by this Author

Senegalese President and African Union Chair Macky Sall on Thursday urged Ukraine to demine waters around its Odessa port to ease much needed grain exports from the war-torn country.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions have disrupted grain deliveries from the two countries, fuelling fears of hunger around the world.

Cereal prices in Africa have surged because of the slump in exports, sharpening the impact of conflict and climate change and sparking fears of social unrest.

If wheat exports do not resume from Ukraine, Africa "will be in a situation of very serious famine that could destabilise the continent", Sall told French media outlets France 24 and RFI.

Russia and Ukraine produce 30 percent of the global wheat supply.

But grain has remained stuck in Ukraine's ports due to a Russian blockade, while Western sanctions on Moscow have disrupted exports from Russia.
Moscow has called for Ukraine to demine the waters surrounding the Ukrainian-controlled port of Odessa to allow out blocked grain, but Kyiv has refused for fear of a Russian attack.

Sall said Russia President Vladimir Putin, whom he met last week in Russia, had assured him this would not happen.

"I even told him: 'The Ukrainians said that if they demine, you'll enter the port.' He says, no, he will not enter, and that's a commitment he made," the Senegalese leader said.

"There must now be work towards getting the demining done, the United Nations involved... so that we can start getting the Ukrainian wheat out," he said.

Sall is to meet French President Emmanuel Macron in France on Friday.
He is expected to ask him to help lift EU sanctions against Russia, especially to reverse its exclusion from the global SWIFT bank messaging system.

"Since our banks are mostly linked to European banks, they cannot pay as they used to" for Russian products, the AU chair explained.
 
Translation Google


War in Ukraine: Russia has earned a fortune since the start of the conflict, France singled out

Despite an ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia continues to profit from the sale of its natural gas, of which France is particularly fond.

By Capital with AFP
Published on06/13/2022 at 6:15 p.m.

Russia earned 93 billion euros in fossil fuel export revenues in the first 100 days of its war against Ukraine, most of it going to the EU, research center report says independent published on Monday, and which particularly pinpoints France. This publication from the Finland-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) comes as Ukraine urges Westerners to cut off all trade with Russia to stop fueling the Kremlin's war chest.

The European Union recently decided on a gradual embargo – with exceptions – on its oil imports. Russian gas, on which it is very dependent, is not currently concerned. According to the CREA, the EU accounted for 61% of fossil imports, or approximately 57 billion euros, over the first 100 days of the war (February 24 - June 3). The biggest importers were China (12.6 billion euros), Germany (12.1 billion) and Italy (7.8 billion). Russia's revenues come first from the sale of crude oil (46 billion), followed by gas transported by gas pipelines (24 billion), then petroleum products, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and finally coal.

The manna has not dried up, even if exports fell in May and Russia is forced to sell at rock bottom prices on international markets. Despite this rebate, the country still benefited from the global rise in energy prices . While some countries have made significant efforts to reduce their imports (Poland, Finland, Baltic countries), others have on the contrary increased their purchases: China, India, United Arab Emirates or... France, according to the CREA.

Paris has become the first importer of Russian LNG in the world

“While the EU is considering stricter sanctions against Russia, France has increased its imports, to become the biggest buyer of Russian LNG in the world”, underlines Lauri Myllyvirta, analyst of the CREA. These are also cash purchases and not under long-term contracts, which means that France knowingly decided to use Russian energy despite the invasion of Ukraine, estimates the specialist.

"France must align its actions with its words: if it truly supports Ukraine, it must immediately put in place an embargo on Russian fossil fuels and quickly develop clean energies and energy efficiency solutions", judge-t -he.


https://www.capital.fr/economie-pol...du-conflit-la-france-pointee-du-doigt-1438922
 
France hasn't forgotten that keeping its citizens affordably warm is a basic duty of government. I'm glad they aren't driving the prices of natural gas even higher here in the US.
 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06...-worsens-pm-asks-australia-for-help/101152402
Sri Lanka's economic crisis has turned into a national emergency, and its people are now calling for help to save lives
By South Asia correspondent Avani Dias and Som Patidar in Sri Lanka
Posted 11 hours ago, updated 1h ago
...

Government employees move to four-day week so they have time to grow food


While access to healthcare products is a crisis in the here and now, the larger-scale problem of food security is looming in the months ahead.

There's been a global push for a four-day working week to improve mental wellbeing and productivity.

Sri Lanka introduced the concept for government employees on Tuesday, but here, it's a desperate move to give people a day off to grow their own food as supplies run out.

"It seems appropriate to grant government officials leave for one working day of the week and provide them with the necessary facilities to engage in agricultural activities in their backyards," a cabinet statement said...
 
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06...essures-pushing-people-to-the-limit/101165364
Rising electricity prices, cost-of-living pressures pushing Tasmanians to the limit

By Adam Langenberg and Lucy MacDonald

Posted 5 hours ago, updated 2h ago
For Tasmanian pensioner Suzanne Cass, making ends meet is so difficult that she rations her food and limits leaving her home.

"We now only go out when we absolutely have to because of petrol prices and, if we have to go out, we make sure we do more than one thing," she said.

"We don't put heating on until four or five o'clock, so the house is quite cold all day, and you go to bed early because you just can't afford the heating."

Her scrimping and saving, made harder by the rising cost of living, is set to go to another level when a 11.88-percent rise in electricity prices takes effect next month.

That rise will see the average annual residential bill rise by about $220, while the average business will pay $176 more.

"It's just one hit after another. It means you can do less," Ms Cass said.

"I'm anxious, depressed, worried. It's not the life that I planned … I just never expected at this time in my life that I'd be living like this.

"I used to buy salmon every so often and now I don't do that...
 
https://thepattayanews.com/2022/06/...i-racha-residents-car-gas-tank-to-steal-fuel/
Thief reportedly drills into a Sri Racha resident’s car gas tank to steal fuel
By Tanakorn Panyadee-

Thursday, 16 June 2022, 10:02
...
The male victim, Chaipichit Phromboot, 46, was waiting for the police beside his black Ford Ranger pickup truck, which had a blue gallon gas can under it and smelled of fuel, according to reports. The victim then revealed his grievance that a thief had reportedlt drilled three holes into his truck gas tank to drain the fuel and then used the blue gallon gas can to collect it and fled.

Chaipichit expressed his sorrow, saying that he had just refilled his gas tank for 500 baht on June 14th, so that he could drive to work, but his apartment owner who was the first person being aware of the incident informed him yesterday morning that someone stole his fuel.
...

TPN notes that Chaipichit is the third victim of a fuel thief in the Sri Racha area as a global fuel price continues to hike...
 
https://menafn.com/1104403684/Amid-...ggling-to-keep-up-with-rising-energy-expenses
Amid massive economic downturn, Turks are struggling to keep up with rising energy expenses
Date 6/20/2022 3:30:44

(MENAFN) Ahmet Saymadi, a guy in his 40s, has been running a modest meyhane, a traditional Turkish pub, in Istanbul's popular Istiklal Avenue district for the last three years.

However, his firm has taken a blow in the last two years, first from the COVID-19 limitations and then from the massive economic crisis, which has "smashed everything" even as the epidemic begins to slow...
 
I bet I run through my savings before Russia does.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...aring-for-them-for-nearly-a-decade/ar-AAYC6FE
It's no surprise Russia is weathering the West's sanctions: Putin has been preparing for them for nearly a decade
(Huileng Tan) - Saturday
  • Russia has been preparing for sanctions since 2014, after it annexed Crimea.
  • Moscow was already hit by a range of Western-led sanctions after the annexation.
  • Since then, Russia has been protecting itself through a variety of measures.
Economists have been predicting an implosion of President Vladimir Putin's economic regime since the West hit Russia with sweeping sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. But three-and-a-half months into the war, Russia has been holding up — with Putin announcing on June 7 that inflation has slowed and unemployment has held steady.

It helps that Russia is an energy powerhouse that's still posting bumper sale revenues thanks to soaring oil prices. Even without an energy windfall, Russia could in the near-term be buffered from sanctions. That's because the country has been sanction-proofing itself since 2014 when it was also hit with a raft of trade restrictions after it illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine.

Putin has "refashioned the Russian economy into a fortress" to weather external shocks, wrote Veronica Carrion, an economic researcher at the American Bankers Association (ABA) in an ABA Banking Journal post on June 13...
 
The complication here is that "Russia" is not a single economic entity. Putin and the Russian government might be prepared for the sanction and weathering them well, but the same is not true for the average apartment dweller in Moscow, not to mention the rural elderly Russian pensioner. Whether this is a feature or a bug in the sanctions is unclear to me at this point, but this seems to be the most notable effect from what I can see.
 
True - it always irks me when the US is touted as a 'rich' country. We have great stratification of wealth here and those who make direct decisions about spending billions don't suffer the consequences of those choices. Energy and food costs rising will be felt dearly by many, no matter how the cause is spun.
 
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