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Ukraine War - Economic Consequences thread - February 24+
- Thread starter sharon sanders
- Start date
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Russian source
(updated: 03/21/2022 05:19 PM)
97108
A project on Russia's withdrawal from the WTO was submitted to the State Duma
Deputies from "Fair Russia" submitted to the State Duma a bill on the country's withdrawal from the WTO
MOSCOW, March 21 - RIA Novosti. Deputies from the Just Russia - For Truth faction and Senator Olga Epifanova submitted to the State Duma a draft on the denunciation of the protocol on Russia's accession to the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization. The document is available in the electronic database of the lower chamber.
more...
zhttps://ria.ru/20220321/zakonoproekt-1779292295.html
(updated: 03/21/2022 05:19 PM)
97108
A project on Russia's withdrawal from the WTO was submitted to the State Duma
Deputies from "Fair Russia" submitted to the State Duma a bill on the country's withdrawal from the WTO
MOSCOW, March 21 - RIA Novosti. Deputies from the Just Russia - For Truth faction and Senator Olga Epifanova submitted to the State Duma a draft on the denunciation of the protocol on Russia's accession to the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization. The document is available in the electronic database of the lower chamber.
more...
zhttps://ria.ru/20220321/zakonoproekt-1779292295.html
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
bump this
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://mei.edu/publications/ukraine-war-has-upended-turkeys-plans-stabilize-economy
The Ukraine war has upended Turkey’s plans to stabilize the economy
March 23, 2022
M. Murat Kubilay
The war in Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Turkish economy. Amid the country’s ongoing economic crisis, the government has been implementing extraordinary and unconventional monetary and fiscal policies. The aim is to ensure a steady, but ultimately unsustainable, foreign trade surplus by taking advantage of the undervalued local currency...
...
The conflict in Ukraine affects not only imports but also exports of goods and services. Ukraine’s main ports are blocked and air transportation has ground to a halt due to security concerns. Turkey’s exports to Ukraine totaled $2.9 billion in 2021 and will fall to almost zero this year. The 2.1 million tourists that visited from Ukraine last year will disappear too.
Russia is one of Turkey’s leading trade partners and the balance of trade is certainly in Moscow’s favor, owing to natural gas sales. Nonetheless, Turkey’s annual export income of $5.8 billion from trade with Russia should not be discounted at a time when the government strictly ties exports to GDP growth. Financial and commercial sanctions will hit Russia hard, resulting in a significant increase in poverty levels and leading to difficulties in making payments for imports from Turkey. In 2021, 4.7 million Russian tourists visited Turkey, up dramatically from a pandemic-era low of 2.1 million in 2020. This year, however, Turkey was expected to host around 10 million Russian tourists given the easing of COVID-19’s impact on international tourism. The cost of losing these Russian tourists will be around $5 billion, equivalent to the total of the last two years' income.
Another important aspect of Turkey’s trade relations with Ukraine and Russia is its dependence on imported wheat and sunflower oil: The two countries account for around three-quarters of its wheat imports and all of its sunflower oil imports. Ukraine has already banned exports of grains and other agricultural products through the end of the year, while Russia has imposed a partial ban on grain exports through at least the end of June. Food prices are rising globally, meaning alternative suppliers will be expensive as well. Turkey, a middle-income country where bread made from wheat is the main source of nutrition, may face social protests if the cost of bread production is not subsidized...
The Ukraine war has upended Turkey’s plans to stabilize the economy
March 23, 2022
M. Murat Kubilay
The war in Ukraine couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Turkish economy. Amid the country’s ongoing economic crisis, the government has been implementing extraordinary and unconventional monetary and fiscal policies. The aim is to ensure a steady, but ultimately unsustainable, foreign trade surplus by taking advantage of the undervalued local currency...
...
The conflict in Ukraine affects not only imports but also exports of goods and services. Ukraine’s main ports are blocked and air transportation has ground to a halt due to security concerns. Turkey’s exports to Ukraine totaled $2.9 billion in 2021 and will fall to almost zero this year. The 2.1 million tourists that visited from Ukraine last year will disappear too.
Russia is one of Turkey’s leading trade partners and the balance of trade is certainly in Moscow’s favor, owing to natural gas sales. Nonetheless, Turkey’s annual export income of $5.8 billion from trade with Russia should not be discounted at a time when the government strictly ties exports to GDP growth. Financial and commercial sanctions will hit Russia hard, resulting in a significant increase in poverty levels and leading to difficulties in making payments for imports from Turkey. In 2021, 4.7 million Russian tourists visited Turkey, up dramatically from a pandemic-era low of 2.1 million in 2020. This year, however, Turkey was expected to host around 10 million Russian tourists given the easing of COVID-19’s impact on international tourism. The cost of losing these Russian tourists will be around $5 billion, equivalent to the total of the last two years' income.
Another important aspect of Turkey’s trade relations with Ukraine and Russia is its dependence on imported wheat and sunflower oil: The two countries account for around three-quarters of its wheat imports and all of its sunflower oil imports. Ukraine has already banned exports of grains and other agricultural products through the end of the year, while Russia has imposed a partial ban on grain exports through at least the end of June. Food prices are rising globally, meaning alternative suppliers will be expensive as well. Turkey, a middle-income country where bread made from wheat is the main source of nutrition, may face social protests if the cost of bread production is not subsidized...
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://www.intellinews.com/mongoli...s-economy-to-the-test-238899/?source=mongolia
Mongolia's central bank circles wagons around reserves as Ukraine crisis puts economy to the test
By Anand Tumurtogoo in Ulaanbaatar March 23, 2022
The economic ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the West's imposition of heavy sanctions on Moscow in response to it are starting to unsettle Mongolia.
Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the governor of the Bank of Mongolia (BoM), Lhagvasuren Byadran, told reporters that the national lender boasted $4.3bn in reserves as of the start of 2022, and that the reserves were more than enough to cover seven to eight months. Yet there have been instances of bank customers blocked from making foreign payments of more than Mongolian tughrik (MNT) 4mn (less than $1,700) and prevented from obtaining more than $1,000 per day...
Mongolia's central bank circles wagons around reserves as Ukraine crisis puts economy to the test
By Anand Tumurtogoo in Ulaanbaatar March 23, 2022
The economic ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the West's imposition of heavy sanctions on Moscow in response to it are starting to unsettle Mongolia.
Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the governor of the Bank of Mongolia (BoM), Lhagvasuren Byadran, told reporters that the national lender boasted $4.3bn in reserves as of the start of 2022, and that the reserves were more than enough to cover seven to eight months. Yet there have been instances of bank customers blocked from making foreign payments of more than Mongolian tughrik (MNT) 4mn (less than $1,700) and prevented from obtaining more than $1,000 per day...
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
bump this
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/war-raging-russia-still-paying-152915866.html
War Is Raging, But Russia Is Still Paying Ukraine for Gas Flows
Bloomberg News
Tue, March 22, 2022, 10:29 AM
(Bloomberg) -- It’s been a month since the war started, but Russia is actually shipping more natural gas through Ukraine and Moscow is still paying Kyiv in full for transiting the fuel to Europe.
Daily gas flows from Russia at some point surged more than 50% from January lows, with shipments traveling through Ukrainian pipelines more than doubling as energy companies rushed to buy after the invasion. Exports from Europe’s top supplier became cheaper than buying gas in the spot market, and Russia is still paying for transit in hard currency, according to Yuriy Vitrenko, chief executive officer of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy, Ukraine’s largest state-owned oil and gas company.
It’s an awkward situation for European policy makers...
...
Ukraine has said before that Gazprom pays about $2 billion per year for gas-transshipment services.
War Is Raging, But Russia Is Still Paying Ukraine for Gas Flows
Bloomberg News
Tue, March 22, 2022, 10:29 AM
(Bloomberg) -- It’s been a month since the war started, but Russia is actually shipping more natural gas through Ukraine and Moscow is still paying Kyiv in full for transiting the fuel to Europe.
Daily gas flows from Russia at some point surged more than 50% from January lows, with shipments traveling through Ukrainian pipelines more than doubling as energy companies rushed to buy after the invasion. Exports from Europe’s top supplier became cheaper than buying gas in the spot market, and Russia is still paying for transit in hard currency, according to Yuriy Vitrenko, chief executive officer of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy, Ukraine’s largest state-owned oil and gas company.
It’s an awkward situation for European policy makers...
...
Ukraine has said before that Gazprom pays about $2 billion per year for gas-transshipment services.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
bump this
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ises-questions-of-sanctions-impact/ar-AAVGbMW
Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sanctions' impact
By KEN SWEET and ELLEN KNICKMEYER, Associated Press - Yesterday 2:10 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) — The ruble is no longer rubble.
The Russian ruble by Wednesday had bounced back from the fall it took after the U.S. and European allies moved to bury the Russian economy under thousands of new sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has resorted to extreme financial measures to blunt the West’s penalties and inflate his currency.
While the West has imposed unprecedented levels of sanctions against the Russian economy, Russia’s Central Bank has jacked up interest rates to 20% and the Kremlin has imposed strict capital controls on those wishing to exchange their rubles for dollars or euros.
It’s a monetary defense Putin may not be able to sustain as long-term sanctions weigh down the Russian economy. But the ruble’s recovery could be a sign that the sanctions in their current form are not working as powerfully as Ukraine's allies counted on when it comes to pressuring Putin to pull his troops from Ukraine. It also could be a sign that Russia's efforts to artificially prop up its currency are working by leveraging its oil and gas sector...
Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sanctions' impact
By KEN SWEET and ELLEN KNICKMEYER, Associated Press - Yesterday 2:10 PM
WASHINGTON (AP) — The ruble is no longer rubble.
The Russian ruble by Wednesday had bounced back from the fall it took after the U.S. and European allies moved to bury the Russian economy under thousands of new sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has resorted to extreme financial measures to blunt the West’s penalties and inflate his currency.
While the West has imposed unprecedented levels of sanctions against the Russian economy, Russia’s Central Bank has jacked up interest rates to 20% and the Kremlin has imposed strict capital controls on those wishing to exchange their rubles for dollars or euros.
It’s a monetary defense Putin may not be able to sustain as long-term sanctions weigh down the Russian economy. But the ruble’s recovery could be a sign that the sanctions in their current form are not working as powerfully as Ukraine's allies counted on when it comes to pressuring Putin to pull his troops from Ukraine. It also could be a sign that Russia's efforts to artificially prop up its currency are working by leveraging its oil and gas sector...
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
bump this
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
The sanctions meant to hurt Russia are the nail in coffin for other struggling countries.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...is-2022-04-01/
Explainer: How Sri Lanka's economy spiralled into crisis
By Devjyot Ghoshal
...
But after oil prices soared in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, the government eventually drew up a plan to approach the IMF in April. read more
The IMF will initiate discussions with Sri Lankan authorities on a possible loan program in "coming days", an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. read more
Before heading to the IMF, Sri Lanka steeply devalued its currency, further stoking inflation and adding to the pain of the public, many of whom are enduring hardship and long queues. read more ...
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...el-2022-03-30/
...
To seek a way out of the crisis, Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa is set to visit Washington in April for talks with the IMF. The Fund's assessment published on Friday said Sri Lanka was experiencing a combined balance of payments and sovereign debt crisis, and would need a "comprehensive strategy" to make its debt sustainable.
If Sri Lanka secures an IMF programme it would be its 17th financial rescue package from the global lender...
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...is-2022-04-01/
Explainer: How Sri Lanka's economy spiralled into crisis
By Devjyot Ghoshal
...
But after oil prices soared in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, the government eventually drew up a plan to approach the IMF in April. read more
The IMF will initiate discussions with Sri Lankan authorities on a possible loan program in "coming days", an IMF spokesman said on Thursday. read more
Before heading to the IMF, Sri Lanka steeply devalued its currency, further stoking inflation and adding to the pain of the public, many of whom are enduring hardship and long queues. read more ...
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...el-2022-03-30/
...
To seek a way out of the crisis, Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa is set to visit Washington in April for talks with the IMF. The Fund's assessment published on Friday said Sri Lanka was experiencing a combined balance of payments and sovereign debt crisis, and would need a "comprehensive strategy" to make its debt sustainable.
If Sri Lanka secures an IMF programme it would be its 17th financial rescue package from the global lender...
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
China
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on April 6, 2022
CCTV: In a recent report, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY) gave a full review of the means, features, impacts of and lessons from the US’ sanctions against Russia. It pointed out that increasing sanctions are not helpful to solve the issue, but have serious negative impacts on Europe and beyond, leading to global inflation, disruption to the supply chain and slower economic recovery. Do you have any comment?
Zhao Lijian: Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the US has been increasing unilateral sanctions on Russia and coercing other countries to take side. This report you mentioned points out that in the past eight years from 2014 till now, a group pf countries, led by the United States, imposed 8,068 sanctions on Russia, which overtakes Iran as the most sanctioned country in the world. Since February 22 this year, 5,314 new sanctions have been slapped on Russia.
I also noted that Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Mikhail Popov said, in a contrasting move to its pressuring of European countries to not buy Russian oil, the US increased crude oil supplies from Russia by 43 percent, or 100,000 barrels per day, over the past week and allowed its companies to import mineral fertilizers from Russia. The ongoing war and sanctions have incurred an influx of refugees, capital outflow and energy shortage in Europe, but enabled the US to have profited and made a fortune from that.
History and reality have made it clear that sanctions cannot guarantee peace and security, and will only lead to a lose-lose situation, further impacting the already languishing world economy and the existing global economic system. If the US is serious about easing the situation in Ukraine, it should stop adding fuel to the fire, stop imposing sanctions, stop coercive words and deeds and truly commit to promote peace talks.
...
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202204/t20220406_10665019.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------
April 6, 2022
1:03 PM CST
Last Updated 30 min ago
U.S. says China could face sanctions if it supports Russia's war in Ukraine
By Michael Martina
WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - Sanctions imposed on Russia over its war in Ukraine should give China a "good understanding" of the consequences it could face if it provides material support to Moscow, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on Wednesday.
Sherman said the "range of sanctions" and export controls coordinated among U.S. allies and partners against Russian President Vladimir Putin, the country's economy, and oligarchs, should serve as an example for China's leader Xi Jinping.
...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sa...f-it-supports-russias-war-ukraine-2022-04-06/
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian’s Regular Press Conference on April 6, 2022
CCTV: In a recent report, the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China (RDCY) gave a full review of the means, features, impacts of and lessons from the US’ sanctions against Russia. It pointed out that increasing sanctions are not helpful to solve the issue, but have serious negative impacts on Europe and beyond, leading to global inflation, disruption to the supply chain and slower economic recovery. Do you have any comment?
Zhao Lijian: Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the US has been increasing unilateral sanctions on Russia and coercing other countries to take side. This report you mentioned points out that in the past eight years from 2014 till now, a group pf countries, led by the United States, imposed 8,068 sanctions on Russia, which overtakes Iran as the most sanctioned country in the world. Since February 22 this year, 5,314 new sanctions have been slapped on Russia.
I also noted that Russian Security Council Deputy Secretary Mikhail Popov said, in a contrasting move to its pressuring of European countries to not buy Russian oil, the US increased crude oil supplies from Russia by 43 percent, or 100,000 barrels per day, over the past week and allowed its companies to import mineral fertilizers from Russia. The ongoing war and sanctions have incurred an influx of refugees, capital outflow and energy shortage in Europe, but enabled the US to have profited and made a fortune from that.
History and reality have made it clear that sanctions cannot guarantee peace and security, and will only lead to a lose-lose situation, further impacting the already languishing world economy and the existing global economic system. If the US is serious about easing the situation in Ukraine, it should stop adding fuel to the fire, stop imposing sanctions, stop coercive words and deeds and truly commit to promote peace talks.
...
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/2511_665403/202204/t20220406_10665019.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------
April 6, 2022
1:03 PM CST
Last Updated 30 min ago
U.S. says China could face sanctions if it supports Russia's war in Ukraine
By Michael Martina
WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - Sanctions imposed on Russia over its war in Ukraine should give China a "good understanding" of the consequences it could face if it provides material support to Moscow, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said on Wednesday.
Sherman said the "range of sanctions" and export controls coordinated among U.S. allies and partners against Russian President Vladimir Putin, the country's economy, and oligarchs, should serve as an example for China's leader Xi Jinping.
...
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sa...f-it-supports-russias-war-ukraine-2022-04-06/
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
I wish the word 'sanction' didn't make me think of the financial and social extermination policies applied to citizens who declined COVID vaccines in several Western countries. But even if that was not happening, I still see sanctions as punishing the wrong people - the ones who don't make the decisions.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Ecuador banana industry crippled by war in Ukraine | AFP
Apr 5, 2022
AFP News Agency
Ecuador is the world's largest banana exporter, but the sector has been hammered by the war in Ukraine, unable to sell its product to Russia due to sanctions. In a country where banana production generates up to 300,000 jobs, it’s a hard blow to the Ecuadorian economy and people's livelihoods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abF-CUX7C70
Apr 5, 2022
AFP News Agency
Ecuador is the world's largest banana exporter, but the sector has been hammered by the war in Ukraine, unable to sell its product to Russia due to sanctions. In a country where banana production generates up to 300,000 jobs, it’s a hard blow to the Ecuadorian economy and people's livelihoods.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abF-CUX7C70
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Ruble Erases Invasion Loss Even as Default Risk, Sanctions Swirl
Russian currency rallies to strongest since before attack
Comeback has been underpinned by tough capital controls
BySydney Maki
April 6, 2022, 6:59 AM CSTUpdated onApril 6, 2022, 10:09 AM CST
The Russian ruble has wiped out the steep losses it incurred in the weeks after President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine.
The currency on Wednesday advanced past 81.16 per U.S. dollar in Moscow trading, the level it closed at on Feb. 23 -- the day before Putin launched his attack.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...invasion-loss-bucking-default-risks-sanctions
Russian currency rallies to strongest since before attack
Comeback has been underpinned by tough capital controls
BySydney Maki
April 6, 2022, 6:59 AM CSTUpdated onApril 6, 2022, 10:09 AM CST
The Russian ruble has wiped out the steep losses it incurred in the weeks after President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine.
The currency on Wednesday advanced past 81.16 per U.S. dollar in Moscow trading, the level it closed at on Feb. 23 -- the day before Putin launched his attack.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...invasion-loss-bucking-default-risks-sanctions
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
bump this
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://twitter.com/ClareDalyMEP/status/1512016960690823170
Clare Daly
@ClareDalyMEP
Member of the European Parliament. Independent. Socialist.
The EU economic war against Russia does nothing to help innocent Ukrainian citizens, victims of this illegal war. Russia is undeterred, while EU citizens face disastrous inflation, rocketing energy costs, and a historic decline in living standards. This is madness…
[Video of speech at link.]
Clare Daly
@ClareDalyMEP
Member of the European Parliament. Independent. Socialist.
The EU economic war against Russia does nothing to help innocent Ukrainian citizens, victims of this illegal war. Russia is undeterred, while EU citizens face disastrous inflation, rocketing energy costs, and a historic decline in living standards. This is madness…
[Video of speech at link.]
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/recession-shock-bank-america-latest-191853835.html
‘Recession shock’: Bank of America is the latest major institution to deliver a grim warning for the future
Tristan Bove
Fri, April 8, 2022, 2:18 PM
Talk of a looming recession is rampant around the globe, and now a major U.S. bank has issued its own dire forecast for the global economy.
It’s been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to an unforeseen and prolonged fallout for the global economy. Combined with an inflation problem that was already spiking the prices of virtually every commodity, global institutions have begun ringing the alarm bells that we are on the brink of a long-anticipated recession.
In an investment strategy report sent to clients on Thursday, Bank of America analysts warned that “inflation always precedes recessions” and that tighter monetary policies being put in place to control surging prices make a “recession shock” very likely...
‘Recession shock’: Bank of America is the latest major institution to deliver a grim warning for the future
Tristan Bove
Fri, April 8, 2022, 2:18 PM
Talk of a looming recession is rampant around the globe, and now a major U.S. bank has issued its own dire forecast for the global economy.
It’s been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, leading to an unforeseen and prolonged fallout for the global economy. Combined with an inflation problem that was already spiking the prices of virtually every commodity, global institutions have begun ringing the alarm bells that we are on the brink of a long-anticipated recession.
In an investment strategy report sent to clients on Thursday, Bank of America analysts warned that “inflation always precedes recessions” and that tighter monetary policies being put in place to control surging prices make a “recession shock” very likely...