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Ukraine War - Economic Consequences thread - February 24+

It will also mean higher gas prices in Europe if NordStream two is blocked for long and more expensive gas from elsewhere has to be sourced.
 
JJackson said:
It will also mean higher gas prices in Europe if NordStream two is blocked for long and more expensive gas from elsewhere has to be sourced.
Click to expand...

Sure.

The US needs to step in. We need to unshackle the US domestic production and re-instate the Canada pipeline as a help to economic & supply pressures.
 
JJackson said:
It will also mean higher gas prices in Europe if NordStream two is blocked for long and more expensive gas from elsewhere has to be sourced.
Click to expand...

I have to respectfully disagree with Sharon on this. Europe needs to bear the environmental brunt of its own energy requirements. They need low particulate producing energy. It is a public health need. Gas is cleaner than coal or, heaven forbid, caveman era sources like wood burning. Particulate pollution is associated with worse respiratory disease outcomes. The burden is greater on middle and lower income earners because they move to wood when times are tough.

The Keystone Pipeline was going to carry dirty tar sands crude, anyway, not natural gas. Let's celebrate something good the current administration did.

https://www.nrdc.org/stories/what-keystone-pipeline
What Is the Keystone XL Pipeline?
How a single pipeline project became the epicenter of an enormous environmental, public health, and civil rights battle.

November 01, 2021 Melissa Denchak Courtney Lindwall
The takedown of the notorious Keystone XL (KXL) tar sands pipeline will go down as one of this generation’s most monumental environmental victories. After more than 10 years of tenacious protests, drawn-out legal battles, and flip-flopping executive orders spanning three presidential administrations, the Keystone XL pipeline is now gone for good. The project’s corporate backer—the Canadian energy infrastructure company TC Energy—officially abandoned the project in June 2021 following President Joe Biden’s denial of a key permit on his first day in office.
Click to expand...

Another pipeline set to export Canada's oil, (probably to China), is not doing well, either.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/canadas-trans-mountain-says-pipeline-185841114.html
Canada govt to stop funding Trans Mountain oil line project as costs soar 70%

Nia Williams
Fri, February 18, 2022, 10:58 AM

By Nia Williams

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) -Canada said on Friday it will halt any further public funding for the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion, after the government-owned company behind the project said costs had surged 70% to C$21.4 billion ($16.8 billion).

Trans Mountain Corp (TMC) also delayed the finish date of the expansion by a further nine months, dealing another blow to a project already best by regulatory delays and opposition.

With the latest cost overrun, the government has told TMC to secure the necessary financing from public debt markets or financial institutions, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said...
Click to expand...

We are causing earthquakes in OK with all the drilling waste being disposed there. That can't expand. There is plenty of gas in Russia, and it should flow to those who require it in Europe. NATO should have made a real attempt to negotiate with Putin on Ukraine. They did not even offer a 3-year pause on accepting Ukraine into NATO. Nord Stream 2 should not have been stopped.
 
I agree with some of the long term ideas above but at this point in time I think the current emergency situation in Europe overrides environmental concerns. People can die much quicker in war than from exposure to wood burning.
 
As Ukraine war heats up, cooking oil prices to rise
India consumes around 2.5 million tonnes (MT) of sunflower oil annually. That makes it the fourth most consumed edible oil, after palm (8-8.5 MT), soyabean (4.5 MT) and mustard/rapeseed (3 MT). But India hardly produces 50,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and imports the rest – much of it from Ukraine and Russia.
Written by Harish Damodaran | New Delhi |
Updated: February 25, 2022 7:49:03 am

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is going to have an impact not only on global crude prices and what Indians will pay for petrol, diesel and LPG cylinders once elections in Uttar Pradesh conclude on March 7. It will also affect prices of cooking oil – and which is likely to be more immediate.

India consumes around 2.5 million tonnes (mt) of sunflower oil annually. That makes it the fourth most consumed edible oil, after palm (8-8.5 mt), soyabean (4.5 mt) and mustard/rapeseed (3 mt). But India hardly produces 50,000 tonnes of sunflower oil and imports the rest – much of it from Ukraine and Russia...
 
Ukraine Crisis Likely to Push Up Wheat Prices

COMMODITIES
by
Felix Richter,

Feb 25, 2022

As oil and gas prices are surging amid the Russian escalation in the Ukraine, consumers around the world are going to see the immediate effects of the crisis at the gas pump or in their next utility bill.

It doesn‘t stop there, however, as other commodity prices are also set to rise given Russia‘s role as a „commodity superstore“ in the world market, as analysts at RBC Capital Markets fittingly put it. Aside from oil, gas and several precious metals, Russia is also a major producer of wheat. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Russia produced 86 million tonnes of the popular grain in 2020, trailing only China and India.

Making things worse, both China and India consume the lion’s share of their production domestically, making Russia the biggest exporter of wheat by a significant margin
...
https://www.statista.com/chart/26928/largest-wheat-exporters/
 
Russia is also the largest exporter of natural gas which is in turn a major cost in nitrate fertilizer production. The two main LNG alternatives to Russian pipeline gas are Qatar and the US neither of who can come close to increasing supply or shipping capacity to meet any disruption of piped gas from Russia to Europe.
 
We all agree on that last sentence, though refugee children probably do die fairly quickly in tents from the combined effect of smoke from unvented solid fuel stoves, malnutrition and disease.
But increasing capacity for gas extraction takes time. It is all long-term, just like the long term feud of the ruling classes of the US and Russia. Ukraine is a proxy for that war, and I don't like what is happening to them. Surrendering now will save lives.
 
Gazprom Paves Way to New China Gas Deal as Sanctions Hit Russia

Bloomberg News 08:30 PM IST, 28 Feb 2022 10:47 PM IST, 28 Feb 2022

(Bloomberg) -- Gazprom PJSC took a new step toward potentially its biggest-ever natural gas supply deal with China as nations around the world sever economic and political ties with Russia over the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
...

https://www.bloombergquint.com/busi...to-new-china-gas-deal-as-sanctions-hit-russia


-------------------------------------------------------

Translation Google


Alexey Miller: the Soyuz Vostok project has entered the design stage

INFORMATION DEPARTMENT OF PJSC GAZPROM February 28, 2022

A working meeting between Alexei Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee, and S. Amarsaikhan, Deputy Prime Minister of Mongolia, took place via videoconference today.

The parties discussed the progress of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline construction project in Mongolia. It will be a continuation of the Russian gas pipeline "Power of Siberia - 2" and will allow the supply of up to 50 billion cubic meters. m of Russian gas per year to China, the world's fastest growing gas market.

At the meeting, the special purpose company Soyuz Vostok Gas Pipeline LLC and Gazprom Proektirovanie LLC signed an agreement to perform design and survey work as part of the construction of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline. The document, in particular, provides for the involvement of Mongolian companies for geodetic engineering, environmental engineering and archaeological surveys.

In addition, the Action Plan of the Joint Working Group of the Government of Mongolia and PJSC Gazprom for 2022-2024 was signed.

“Work on the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline project is actively and successfully progressing. A month ago, the results of a feasibility study were approved, and today a design contract has been signed. This means that the project has entered the practical stage,” said Alexey Miller.



reference

In December 2019, Gazprom and the Government of Mongolia signed a Memorandum of Understanding.

In January 2022, Gazprom and the Government of Mongolia signed a protocol on the results of consideration of a feasibility study (FS) for the construction of the Soyuz Vostok gas pipeline. The feasibility study was prepared by the Soyuz Vostok Gas Pipeline Special Purpose Company.

https://telegra.ph/Gazprom-Mongolia-02-28
 
Nord Stream 2 Pipeline Owner Files for Bankruptcy, Releases Workforce

3/1/22 AT 2:54 PM EST
BY ZOE STROZEWSKI

The company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has reportedly filed for bankruptcy and is letting all of its employees go.

A Swiss official confirmed the development to Swiss radio broadcaster SRF Tuesday.

While the pipeline, which runs between Russia and Germany, was completed last September, Germany recently said that final approval for Nord Stream 2 had been put on hold because of Russia's actions in Ukraine. News that the company had filed for bankruptcy and fired all of its more than 100 employees emerged the day before the deadline set by the U.S. Treasury Department.

The Swiss-based company that built the pipeline was targeted in U.S. sanctions announced last week by the Biden administration. An executive order issued by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control directed "the wind down of transactions involving Nord Stream 2 AG," as well as "any entity in which Nord Stream 2 AG owns, directly or indirectly, a 50 percent or greater interest" by March 2.

... The pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea, was built to transport natural gas directly from Russia's reserves and into Europe, according to the Nord Stream 2 website. ...

https://www.newsweek.com/nord-stream-2-pipeline-owner-files-bankruptcy-releases-workforce-1683820
 
Press release

UK imposes sanctions on Belarus for its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

From: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon Elizabeth Truss MP
Published1 March 2022


The Foreign Secretary launched a first tranche of sanctions against Belarusian individuals and organisations in response to Belarus' role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • first tranche of sanctions implemented against Belarus for its role supporting Russia’s military invasion
  • Belarusian Chief of the General Staff and 3 other deputy defence ministers sanctioned
  • two military enterprises sanctioned
... Background

1. The individuals and entities have been designated under the UK’s Russia sanctions regime for their role in destabilising Ukraine and undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.

2. The UK has already imposed sanctions on more than 100 people and organisations in response to the fraudulent elections in Belarus and the litany of abhorrent acts and human rights violations that the Lukashenko regime continues to commit.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...r-its-role-in-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine
 
Source: https://mei.edu/publications/russia...egypts-food-crisis-existential-threat-economy

The Russia-Ukraine War has Turned Egypt's Food Crisis into an Existential Threat to the Economy
March 3, 2022
Michaël Tanchum

With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022, Egypt's food security crisis now poses an existential threat to its economy. The fragile state of Egypt's food security stems from the agricultural sector's inability to produce enough cereal grains, especially wheat, and oilseeds to meet even half of the country's domestic demand. Cairo relies on large volumes of heavily subsidized imports to ensure sufficient as well as affordable supplies of bread and vegetable oil for its 105 million citizens. Securing those supplies has led Egypt to become the world's largest importer of wheat and among the world's top 10 importers of sunflower oil. In 2021, Cairo was already facing down food inflation levels not seen since the Arab Spring civil unrest a decade earlier that toppled the government of former President Hosni Mubarak. After eight years of working assiduously to put Egypt's economic house back in order, the government of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi is now similarly vulnerable to skyrocketing food costs that are reaching budget-breaking levels...
 
Russian source.


Some types of economic relief to citizens including a credit holiday. I am guessing the credit holiday is a loan repayment holiday - maybe like car and mortgage payments?

12:59 03/04/2022(updated: 13:37 03/04/2022)
64218

The State Duma adopted a law on measures to support citizens and businesses
The State Duma adopted a law containing a set of measures to support citizens and businesses


MOSCOW, March 4 - RIA Novosti. The State Duma adopted a law containing a set of measures to support businesses and the population.

The document developed by the government allows the introduction of a moratorium on scheduled inspections of small and medium-sized businesses in 2022, as well as on scheduled inspections of accredited organizations in the IT industry until the end of 2024.

In addition, the initiative simplifies the procedure for obtaining the status of a participant in a free economic zone in Crimea - an organization registered outside it, it is enough to have a branch or representative office on the peninsula.

In addition, the State Duma also approved a law on credit holidays - this measure provides for the deferment of payments or a reduction in their size.


zhttps://ria.ru/20220304/podderzhka-1776476650.html
 
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