UK: Tamiflu may be rationed, patients should quarantine themselves

[St Michael]

Swine flu to hit millions: Tamiflu may be rationed as Government warns of 100,000 fresh British cases a day

By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 2:09 AM on 03rd July 2009

Millions of Britons will contract swine flu in the coming months, the Health Secretary predicted yesterday.

Putting Britain on epidemic alert, Andy Burnham warned that there could be 100,000 fresh cases every day by the end of August.

Under new rules announced yesterday, anyone with flu symptoms is advised not to go to their GP for fear of spreading the disease. Instead they should quarantine themselves in their home.

Sufferers will have to nominate a 'flu friend' to pick up antiviral medicine from special drug collection points, and then post them through the letterbox.

Mr Burnham also warned that the antiviral drug Tamiflu could be rationed to those at greatest risk within a matter of weeks. For the first time, GPs have been given discretion to refuse the drug to people with mild cases of flu.

The Government was forced to put emergency measures in place after admitting the virus was now out of control. Mr Burnham said he had to 'hope for the best and prepare for the worst'.

Experts warned that the outbreak could last for more than five years, and that deaths of healthy young people at some point were inevitable.

This means Britain is leaving the 'containment' phase and upgrading to the more drastic 'treatment' phase of pandemic control.

Tory health spokesman Andrew Lansley attacked ministers for not having a special dedicated flu hotline established and he questioned whether the NHS would be able to cope.

In response, Mr Burnham said plans were in place to allow for the cancellation of elective surgery as 'circumstances require'.

If the outbreak gets worse, people will be able to download Tamiflu vouchers from the web.

Rationing of the drugs may then be brought in, with only those at serious health risk getting them.

Scientists have warned ministers of the danger that the flu could develop resistance if too many people use Tamiflu.

Several million doses of a vaccine against swine flu will be available by the end of August, rising to 60million at the end of December.

If there is a shortage, jabs will be given first to those at risk - pensioners, the under-fives, pregnant women and people with health problems such as heart disease - and to NHS workers.

Mr Burnham said swine flu may be spreading particularly in the West Midlands because of close family ties among the Asian community.

* Conservative Central Office was last night at the centre of a swine flu scare after two of David Cameron's aides displayed symptoms of the illness. The two researchers were sent home after complaining of feeling unwell.

'Now we're entering the most dangerous phase'

Under the Government's pandemic action plan, there are three levels of alert for a serious flu outbreak. Yesterday the health secretary announced the UK would now enter the third, most serious, phase.

The first stage is Containment, which Britain entered when the first cases, a honeymoon couple, were confirmed in Scotland on April 27 this year.

The priority is to stop the disease spreading as much as possible. Everyone with suspected swine flu has their diagnosis confirmed by a lab report, and is given the anti-viral drug Tamiflu.

All recent contacts of infected people are traced and also given Tamiflu. Schools are closed if teachers or pupils come down with the disease.

The second stage is Outbreak Management, which the country entered on June 25.

Action against swine flu was stepped up in three 'hot spot' areas - London, Glasgow and the West Midlands - where it was no longer possible to contain its spread.

In the hot spots, suspected cases were no longer sent for lab testing, with GPs doing the diagnosis, and people with swine flu got Tamiflu, but contacts did not as a matter of course. Schools in the hotspots were no longer automatically closed.

The third stage, which the whole country entered yesterday, is called Treatment.

GPs will be given the discretion to hold back Tamiflu to those with minor symptoms - and in a few weeks it may be rationed to at-risk groups.

Vaccines will begin to be delivered once the first batches arrive in August.

 

[St Michael]

Re: UK: Tamiflu may be rationed, patients should quarantine themselves

Britain Rolls Out New Flu Strategy
By Tom Rivers
VOA
02 July 2009

Containing the H1N1 virus in Britain is no longer an option and the country is moving to a new treatment phase. Health Secretary Andy Burnham outlined the new approach, effective immediately, which includes doctors diagnosing and prescribing medication over the phone to those suspected of having contracted the virus. The disease infection rate is roughly doubling every week in Britain.

The United Kingdom is already experiencing the highest number of swine-flu cases in Europe and that number is expected to grow exponentially now that the virus is firmly entrenched.

Officially, Britain has recorded nearly 8,000 confirmed cases of H1N1, but the real total is thought to be much higher as symptoms for most are mild and they simply go undetected.

Speaking in the House of Commons, Health Secretary Andy Burnham acknowledged that the initial strategy of containing the virus that is believed to have first arrived in April, was no longer a viable option.

"We could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August, though I stress this is only a projection," Burnham said.

Since the virus is new, many people have no immunity, so it is spreading rapidly.

Although three people have died of the flu in Britain, most deal easily with the mild symptoms and get over it with or without anti-viral treatment in a few days.

Initially, everyone in Britain who thought they might have picked up swine flu was tested. Those individuals and those close to them were given a course of anti-viral medication.

Now that the number of cases is rising, that overriding strategy is being scrapped.

People who think they might now have the virus are being urged to call their doctor and describe their symptoms over the phone. The doctor or general practitioner can then issue a prescription voucher that a friend of the affected person can pick up.

Andy Burnham says that new approach speeds everything up.

"GPs (general practitioners) will now provide clinical diagnosis of swine flu cases rather than awaiting laboratory test results and primary care trusts will now begin to establish anti-viral collection points where necessary," Burnham said. "This new approach will also mean a move from the daily reported figures of laboratory confirmed cases from the Health Protection Agency to more general estimates of spread."

The move will remove growing pressure on the health system.

Burnham underlines that the virus is not becoming deadlier, only that it is becoming more widespread.

Although there are enough anti-viral drugs for everyone in Britain, some health experts say they should be targeted only at the most vulnerable, because an overuse of the medication could lead to a virus resistance to treatment.