UK Exercise Prometheus Model for "Wave 2"

[Hogweed]

http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publication...tions/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_104969

Exercise Prometheus

Document type: Guidance
Author: Health Protection Agency for Department of Health
Published date: 10 September 2009
Publication format: Electronic only
Gateway reference: 12582
Copyright holder: Crown

Exercise Prometheus is a Department of Health funded exercise for the social care sector to assess and develop its resilience planning in readiness for a second wave of the pandemic swine flu. Designed as an 'off the shelf' package primarily for use by local authorities in partnership with their local providers of social care, the exercise has been developed by the Health Protection Agency from experience gained in previous pandemic influenza exercises.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: UK Exercise Prometheus Model for "Wave 2"

Can someone help me with this math, because I'm obviously doing something wrong.
Let's assume a population of 16 million

30% attack rate = 4.8 million

4.8 million @ .10% case fatality = 480,000 ???

 

[Hogweed]

Re: UK Exercise Prometheus Model for "Wave 2"

That would be a 10% CFR. at a projected 0.1% CFR that would be one in a thousand - so 4,800 in your example.

If you download the spreadsheet from the address uptop you can actually plug in values for your local population and play with them.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK Exercise Prometheus Model for "Wave 2"

Can someone help me with this math, because I'm obviously doing something wrong.
Let's assume a population of 16 million

30% attack rate = 4.8 million

4.8 million @ .10% case fatality = 480,000 ???

4.8 million x 1 / 1000 = 4,800 deaths. (0.1% = 1 x 1,000)

 

[hawkeye]

Re: UK Exercise Prometheus Model for "Wave 2"

Thanks everyone.