UK: 607 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

what is the point, of giving millions of people adjuvanted vaccines of uncertain safety in a mild pandemic, when the worst may be over??


The worst was not over, as we can see this year.
if last year a greater number of people in England had been vaccinated, this year the performance of' outbreak might have been different.
Pandemics usually have different waves, the last may be worst than the first one, like in 1968-69

In this season we have normal level of ILI, compared with previous seasons, but ICU are stressed disproportionally

Graphs may be at low level, but you have to consider that elderly are largely spared

 

[SusanC]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

what is the point, of giving millions of people adjuvanted vaccines of uncertain safety in a mild pandemic, when the worst may be over??


The worst was not over, as we can see this year.

Well, my original comment referred to the use of vaccines in a timely manner in a breaking pandemic. I wrote that comment in mid-November 2009. Now that we have 1 year of hindsight, we can look at the stats again.

Here's a paper analyzing H1N1 2009 mortality in the UK, up to March 2010. By mid-November, we were already on the downward slope of the second wave (see figure here, the line chart for outbreak which peaked in mid-October, mortality lags behind by a couple of weeks http://www.eurosurveillance.org/images/dynamic/EE/V15N20/Fatal_H1N1_Fig1.jpg )

At the same time, let's look at what actually happened with the vaccination program. Here's a report on the pandemic vaccine uptake . On page 19 of that pdf, you can see a chart of vaccine uptake over time. By mid-October, which was the peak of the second wave, <5% of target groups had been vaccinated. Suppose someone got vaccinated in mid-November, the date when I wrote that comment. Assuming, optimistically, 2 weeks for immune protection to occur, then they would have been protected from early December onwards, at which point the epidemic was well on the wane. Even so, only 20% of the target groups had received their vaccine by that mid-November date.

Another way of looking at this, in reference to this year, is that from June 2009 - Feb 2010, there were 436 deaths. For the current season, we're looking at double digits still, <50 so far. Any death is tragic, but I'd say, comparing 400+ to <50, the worst still was over by November 2009.

Of course, intuitively, I'd agree that if more people got vaccinated last year, we might have less deaths this year. OTOH, intuition is not science, and I'd say we probably should wait for the statistics (perhaps from different countries?) to actually see whether more vaccinations last year resulted in fewer deaths this year.

So, things are still evolving. I'd just stay tuned...

 

[SusanC]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

In this season we have normal level of ILI, compared with previous seasons, but ICU are stressed disproportionally

FYI, ICUs are always stressed, if there's a big flu outbreak, which there is, this year. Put in another way, we have so little margin in the NHS that the degree of stress to ICUs is IMO overly sensitive (ie too easily triggered) to be useful for our interpretation of the severity of the disease ie a high-ish AR is enough to overwhelm ICUs even if the CFR remains low ...

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Thank you to everyone who is participating on this thread.

:yinyang:

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

we have so little margin in the NHS that the degree of stress to ICUs is IMO overly sensitive

beds in the ICU must be tailored to the needs of a particular country. Maybe in UK are below requirements, but I do not think that every year there is evidence of overwhelming cases. From what referred by English doctors , you have to go back to the 1999-00 season to have a stress so great, in that case determined by the admissions of the elderly

At the height of the swine flu outbreak in July 2009 there were 63 people critically ill, while in November 173 people were in intensive care

Now there are 700 people in ICU, four times that number

As you say, we have to stay tuned and to wait and see

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Swine Flu latest: Four more deaths in Greater Manchester ? and 27 are fighting for life in hospital


Four more Greater Manchester people are thought to have died from flu and 27 others are fighting for life as the region takes the brunt of the swine-flu virus.

A man from Trafford, a patient from Tameside, and a teenage boy, from Oldham, have died after suffering from swine flu and health bosses believe it also contributed to the death of a younger child, from Bury.

Their deaths are expected to bring the death toll from H1N1 in Greater Manchester to twelve out of 36 nationally.

And 27 people, with serious complications caused by flu, are fighting for life in intensive care or high dependency wards in the region's hospitals.

This is putting pressure on the region's hospitals ? at times this week there have been no intensive care beds available at some of the region's flagship hospitals including the Manchester Royal Infirmary and the Royal Manchester Children?s Hospital.

Staff at Wythenshawe hospital have now treated five people with their highly-specialist ECMO treatment.

Two have been moved to other hospitals and three are still receiving the intensive treatment for lung failure.

..

http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereve...ter__and_27_are_fighting_for_life_in_hospital

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Prince William played a major part in a helicopter mission to save a young mother who died of swine flu, it has emerged.

The search and rescue pilot, who is based at RAF Valley on Anglesey, was called into action to help get help to Sarah Bowden, 20, earlier this month.

The Prince helicoptered a life support machine and specialist swine flu staff from Leicester to North Manchester General hospital where Miss Bowden lay in a critical condition.

Despite all their efforts, however, she died nine days later - just 11 days after giving birth to her son Harry.

<a href="http://s190.photobucket.com/albums/z27/prandot/?action=view&current=mum.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z27/prandot/mum.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...on-vain-save-swine-flu-mum.html#ixzz19fwoOeDM

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Man dies of swine flu in Coventry University Hospital

A NORTH WARWICKSHIRE man has died from swine flu in Coventry?s University Hospital ? the region?s first victim of the winter.

The man, who was in his 50s, had long-term health issues that made him particularly vulnerable to the virus, health chiefs said.

Yesterday, another five patients were critically ill at the hospital in Walsgrave.

All have underlying health problems.

http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/ne...-coventry-university-hospital-92746-27912502/

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Father-of-three dies from suspected swine flu 10 days after marrying love of his life


<a href="http://s190.photobucket.com/albums/z27/prandot/?action=view&current=article-1342965-0C9CCEF3000005DC-145_468x572.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z27/prandot/article-1342965-0C9CCEF3000005DC-145_468x572.jpg" border="0" alt="Photobucket"></a>

A newly wed wife described how she has a pile of wedding cards and sympathy cards after her husband died from suspected swine flu just 10 days after they tied the knot.

Martin Clorley, 37, who was otherwise healthy, fell ill two days after he married the love of his life Nicola Bartley, 39, on December 16.

He died in Wrexham Maelor Hospital in north Wales just over a week later on Boxing Day.




http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...r-dies-flu-like-symptoms-10-days-wedding.html

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Black Country hospitals hit by new flu crisis

A MAKESHIFT ward was set up in a lounge at a Midland hospital as it struggled under the pressure of a new wave of flu cases.

Elderly patients at Walsall?s newly-refurbished Manor Hospital were forced to spend part of the Christmas holiday in temporary accommodation set up in a lounge.

A ward was also closed at Wolverhampton?s New Cross Hospital and staff were called back early from their Christmas break at Dudley?s Russells Hall to cope with the outbreak.

A woman aged in her 70s suffering from swine flu died at New Cross on Monday, it also emerged, although the hospital said she had underlying health problems.


http://www.birminghammail.net/news/...spitals-hit-by-new-flu-crisis-97319-27905683/

 

[NS1]

HA 230I Cross-Linked in Slovakia on Broad Background

HA 230I Cross-Linked in Slovakia on Broad Background

We may find this set of sequences to be instructive to the UK severe wave in the days to come when NIMR releases sequences.

HA 230I Cross-Linked in Slovakia on Broad Background

Last Updated 2010-12-31

The UK National Institute for Medical Research published a group of sequences on 2010-12-30 at GISAID. One group originated from the National Public Health Institute of Slovakia.

An unusual and persistent background pivoting around 8 polymorphisms on 5 sequences arose during March 2010 in Slovakia pairing two silent polymorphisms for the first time (syn23L and syn177L (CTt)). The Slovakian sequences are all cross-linked with the HA syn413K and the NA syn407V.

Of particular interest is the Slovakia1625_56X_2010_03_30_xL from a 56 year old of unspecified gender due to the 9th polymorphism, a very rare HA 230I. As of this deposit, the multiple backgrounds that are permissive to the HA 230I change extends to a new platform that appears to transmit (5 geographically similar sequences in 5 days).

GeneWurx has prepared an Excel spreadsheet investigating potential genetic acquisition in the currently uncharted severe Pandemic H1N1 wave in the UK. In Version 1 of this spreadsheet, the Slovakian 230I sequence takes Column U and provides homology to one UK White Chapel sequence of interest.

GeneWurx_UK_December_Emerging_Genetics_v1.xls

. . . . Slovakia1625_56X_2010_03_30_xL (
. . . . . . . . syn23L,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn177L (CTt),
. . . . . . . . syn216E,
. . . . . . . . 230I (ATa),
. . . . . . . . 324I,
. . . . . . . . syn400F,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . 461E [UKEngland712_2009_09 with 24K])

. . . . Slovakia1623_39X_2010_03_30_xL (
. . . . . . . . syn23L,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn177L (CTt),
. . . . . . . . syn216E,
. . . . . . . . 324I,
. . . . . . . . syn400F,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . 452I,
. . . . . . . . 461E [UKEngland712_2009_09 with 24K])

. . . . Slovakia1624_61X_2010_03_30_xL (
. . . . . . . . syn23L,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn177L (CTt),
. . . . . . . . syn216E,
. . . . . . . . 324I,
. . . . . . . . syn400F,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . 461E [UKEngland712_2009_09 with 24K])

. . . . Slovakia1626_59X_2010_03_30_xL (
. . . . . . . . syn23L,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn177L (CTt),
. . . . . . . . syn216E,
. . . . . . . . 324I,
. . . . . . . . syn400F,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . 461E [UKEngland712_2009_09 with 24K])

. . . . Slovakia1634_42X_2010_04_03_xL (
. . . . . . . . syn23L,
. . . . . . . . 100N,
. . . . . . . . syn177L (CTt),
. . . . . . . . syn216E,
. . . . . . . . 324I,
. . . . . . . . syn400F,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . 461E [UKEngland712_2009_09 with 24K])
Supporting Sequences

. . . . UKEngland712_2009_09 (
. . . . . . . . 24K,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . syn456L,
. . . . . . . . 461E [Slovakia1625_56X_2010_03_30_xL with 230I])

. . . . DenmarkHvidovreINS141_2009_11_20_xL (
. . . . . . . . syn23L,
. . . . . . . . syn238E,
. . . . . . . . 324I,
. . . . . . . . syn413K,
. . . . . . . . syn484N,
. . . . . . . . syn549R)

. . . . Victoria508_2010_07_24 (
. . . . . . . . 35I [H5N1],
. . . . . . . . 88P [H2N3, H5N1, H11],
. . . . . . . . . . . [HunanHechengSWL1616_2009-11-23,
. . . . . . . . . . . KoreaAF2376_2009_10_27
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 280A and 290K],
. . . . . . . . syn102E [SingON2407_2009_12_13,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Singapore544_2009_12_10,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Brussels243_2009_11_09
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn44L and 89G],
. . . . . . . . syn152I [CalifVRDL115_2009_12_04,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY6939_2009_12_11,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . tkOntarioFAV117_1C_2009_12_07
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 35I, syn219I, syn276H, syn456L, 463V, 523A,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . England1050_2009_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Scotland103_2009_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . England1051_2009_12,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ItalyAncona451_2009_11_27_f,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY6607_2009_11_24,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL107_2009_11_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL101_2009_11_05,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . DC_114_2009_11_04,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . England94800096_2009_11,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Calif_SD35_2009_10_26,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NY5447_2009_10_23,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL84_2009_10_09,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL87_2009_10_09,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaPune6196_2009_08,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IndiaDhule9433_2009_08,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SantoDomingoWR1057N_2009_07_02,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SantoDomingoWR1058N_2009_07_02,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . SantoDomingoWR1059N_2009_06_30],
. . . . . . . . 206S,
. . . . . . . . syn219I [CalifVRDL115_2009_12_04
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 35I, syn152I, syn276H, syn456L, 463V, 523A,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen213_2009_11_17
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 35I, syn152I, 273A, syn456L, 463V, 523A,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL107_2009_11_15
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 35I, syn152I, syn276H, syn456L, 463V, 523A,
. . . . . . . . 238D (GAc) [H2N3, H7N3, H7N7],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Belgorod2_2010-03-15 (GAt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kaliningrad01_2009_11_02 (GAt)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 225E and 226R,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . AthensINS398_2010-01-24 GAt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . KaliningradCRIE_DA_2009-09-26 (GAt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . KaliningradCRIE_KG_2009-09-25 (GAt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . KaliningradCRIE_MA_2009-09-25 (GAt),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . KaliningradCRIE_SHD_2009-09-25 (GAt),

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . KaliningradCRIE_ZD_2009-09-25 (GAt)],
. . . . . . . . syn247A [Belize8756_2009_10_08,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Singapore93_2009_06_22]
. . . . . . . . syn254P,
. . . . . . . . 272G [Niigata19_2009_12_31,
. . . . . . . . . . . . GuangdongSWL36_2009_11_29],
. . . . . . . . syn276H,
. . . . . . . . syn388K [H5N1],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [NagasakiHA_10_28_2010_03_23
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 22I,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA_10_26_2010_03_15
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 22I, syn103E,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA_10_24_2010_03_08
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn103E,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GuangxiLonganSWL1990_2010_02_08
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 453K, syn462E,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . JiangxiDonghuSWL15_2010_01_04
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn106E, 149R, syn456L (TTg),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ViennaINS142_2009_11_26
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn97D, 99T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CzechUsti208_2009_11_25
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 268T,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GhanaFS_1921_2009_11_11,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Alaska44_2009_11_17
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn275V, 276N,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL76_2009_09_21
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with syn283Q,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taiwan206_2009_09_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taiwan177_2009_09_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taiwan167_2009_09_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taiwan156_2009_09_18,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taiwan143_2009_09_15
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 205E mix,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Utah20_C2_2_2009_07_25_VxX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 159D, 206S, 227G
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Slovenia2687_2009_07_01
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 35I, 206S],
. . . . . . . . syn456L,
. . . . . . . . 463V,
. . . . . . . . 523A [Nebraska02_2010_03_11,
. . . . . . . . . . . . NagasakiHA1022_2010_03_01_syn413K,
. . . . . . . . . . . . DomRepublic3768_2009_12_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . NY6939_2009_12_11,
. . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL115_2009_12_04,
. . . . . . . . . . . . NY6607_2009_11_24,
. . . . . . . . . . . . RheinlandPfalz81_2009_11_23,
. . . . . . . . . . . . Berlin210_2009_11_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . BadenWurttemberg511_2009_11_16,
. . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL107_2009_11_15,
. . . . . . . . . . . . FL_Pensacola40_2009_11_09,
. . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL101_2009_11_05,
. . . . . . . . . . . . DC114_2009_11_04,
. . . . . . . . . . . . Calif_SD35_2009_10_26,
. . . . . . . . . . . . NY5447_2009_10_23,
. . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL84_2009_10_09,
. . . . . . . . . . . . CalifVRDL87_2009_10_09,
. . . . . . . . . . . . KuwaitN13013_2009_08_31_syn413K]),

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Winter flu bugs take toll on new hospital

ETERBOROUGH?S multi-million pound new hospital was forced to put patients on trolleys instead of beds and send some to another town because of a surge in winter-related illnesses.

Peterborough City Hospital?s state-of-the-art, accident and emergency department in Bretton had to redirect ambulances to Hinchingbrooke Hospital, more than 20 miles away in Huntingdon, on Tuesday.

While between Christmas Eve and Tuesday, 304 out of the 444 patients admitted to A&E were put on trolleys temporarily drafted in from other departments.

The number of patients admitted during that period was up seven per cent from 414 over the same period last year at Peterborough District hospital.

Hospital chiefs blamed the problem on a surge of flu and winter-related illnesses among patients as well as by staff sickness.

http://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/health/winter_flu_bugs_take_toll_on_new_hospital_1_2216390

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Winter flu at highest level for a decade

Official figures showed that children under the age of five had the highest rates of flu of any age group, with 184 cases per 100,000.


Young children have overtaken those aged five to 14 after rates dropped among older children because of the school holidays.


The figures will increase the controversy about whether young children should have been offered the seasonal flu vaccine.


Last winter, all children under five were offered the swine flu vaccine on the NHS, but a government advisory committee did not recommend that this should be repeated this winter.


Yesterday's figures from the Royal College of GPs showed that the sharpest increase in cases had been in adults aged 45 to 64, with the number of consultations almost doubling to 108 per 100,000 of the population.

Related Articles

• Winter flu cases highest for ten years: figures
  
  30 Dec 2010

Overall, cases of flu increased by almost half in the week to Boxing Day, with 124 people reporting symptoms per 100,000.

The last time seasonal flu cases were this high was during the 1999-2000 flu epidemic, when an estimated 22,000 people died.


snip

Rates were also higher than last week's levels during the 2008-9 swine flu pandemic,


snip


Officials are releasing batches of the antiviral drug Tamiflu left over from the pandemic to ease shortages of the medicine.


Officials said flu rates remained within expected levels for this time of year but cases could surge after the new year as children go back to school.


snip


Up to one in four intensive care beds in some parts of the country is being used for flu patients as NHS services come under increasing pressure.


Norovirus cases also peak at this time of year, leading to ward closures and staff shortages as patients and nurses fall ill.


snip

Pregnant women have been offered the seasonal vaccine this year for the first time because they are at greater risk of complications if they contract swine flu. But under-fives, who were also hit hard by last year's pandemic, were not included in the groups offered the seasonal jab.


The weekly report from the Royal College of GPs said: "Compared with last week's equivalent rates the incidence of influenza-like illness has increased by about 50 per cent.


"The increase was evident in all age groups except schoolchildren (for obvious holiday reasons). There has been a substantial increase in age groups 45-64. Increased incidence of other respiratory illnesses are small."
Flu consultations doubled in the North to reach 118 per 100,000 and there were smaller increases elsewhere. Flu rates remain highest in the South at 136 per 100,000 people.

snip

Health Emergency claimed there was a lack of capacity and specialist nurses that they said could put lives at risk if the flu outbreak gathered momentum.


Geoff Martin, the chairman of Health Emergency, said: ?We are getting reports of intensive care units in London where up to a quarter of the beds are filled with swine flu cases and the crisis is getting worse by the day.

snip

The Department of Health said the NHS was coping well nationally and around one in seven intensive care beds was being used for flu patients. A spokesman added: ?These figures are in keeping with what we would expect during a winter flu season.


more....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8230969/Winter-flu-at-highest-level-for-a-decade.html

After re-reading this article and all of the posts on the thread, it appears that extending the Christmas vacation for a week so that the schools and daycare operations could remain closed to students, might positively affect the outcome of this flu wave.

"Young children have overtaken those aged five to 14 after rates dropped among older children because of the school holidays."

The teachers and administrators could use that week to administer some work at home project(s). While vaccines are 70% effective in the best case scenario, staying away from people who are sick with flu is 100% effective. Of course, the closure can be extended a week at a time pending the disease pattern.

I know the arguments against school closure: 1) It does not decrease disease, it only flattens the curve 2) The schools are an effective "baby sitting" operation and working parents will not go to work if the schools are closed.

As to #1 - Apparently the case load for the hospitals and health care workers is straining, a flattened curve will give an opportunity for better health care delivery

As to #2 - Parents are very resourceful. They can use sick time, vacation time, grandparents, and/or work from home.

The Population Chart for the UK appears to show that the range for children aged 3 - 15 years is low as a percentage of the total population.

Doesn't it make sense to protect this vulnerable age group?

I know this is not a popular idea amongst government planners, but at FluTrackers we operate this site as parents.

 

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/therepor...ng_a_sense_of_proportion_about_swine_flu.html

Keeping a sense of proportion about swine flu
Fergus Walsh | 14:14 UK time, Friday, 31 December 2010

Scary headlines about swine flu can risk distorting the real threat posed by the H1N1 virus. There also seems to be a collective amnesia among many in the media about previous coverage of the virus.

The plain facts are these. So far, 39 people are known to have died with flu since October, the vast majority being infected with the H1N1 virus. That compares with nearly 500 deaths in the 12 months following the arrival of swine flu in April 2009.

That means we have been here before. Remember the media focus on swine flu in Britain in July 2009? It was intense for a few weeks. Then it dropped away.

Strangely, there was comparatively little media interest in the story in autumn 2009, despite there being three times the number of people critically ill than in the summer. I get the impression that many felt we had done enough on swine flu. Indeed there was criticism in the media that the whole issue had been overblown.
Well here we are again...

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Winter health data ? 30 December 2010
December 31, 2010

...

The number of severely ill patients, mostly adults, with confirmed or suspected flu in critical care has continued rising.

As at 30 December 2010 there were 738 patients with confirmed or suspected influenza in NHS critical care beds in England ? these patients occupied 21.2% of available critical care beds nationally.

...

http://winterwatch.dh.gov.uk/winter-health-data-31-december-2010/

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

One among the others ''environmental'' factor behind the bad outbreaks outcome (from the Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/dec/31/flu-outbreak-hospitals-intensive-care ):

Chairman Geoff Martin said the James Paget University Hospital in Great Yarmouth, Norfolk, yesterday declared a black alert ? the most severe status level ? and that the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital was on red alert ? one step lower.

He said: "We warned that hospitals would be forced on to black alert as the flu cases fill the available beds. Now it's happening and we do not believe that the chaos is restricted to East Anglia. The NHS is now on the brink of the worst winter crisis in over a decade as the harsh reality of cuts to beds and staffing numbers is exposed with lethal consequences."

-
-----

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

National Press Releases ?2010 Press Releases

Weekly national influenza report, 31 December 2010

31 December 2010

Latest figures from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) indicate that levels of seasonal flu are continuing to increase across the UK.


The two main strains of flu circulating are Influenza A H1N1 (2009) 'swine' flu and Influenza B, with H1N1 being the predominant strain. A small proportion of flu cases are resulting in severe disease, particularly in people under the age of 65. This is due to the fact that H1N1 is more likely to infect young people and, unfortunately, a very small number of these may develop severe disease.

In the past week, the HPA has been notified of a further 12 people who have died with confirmed flu, bringing the total number since the flu season began in October this year to 39. 36 of these people died with the H1N1 (2009) strain and 3 with Influenza B. All except one case were under 65 years of age and four were under the age of five.

Where information is available on the fatal cases, 23 out of 38 (61 per cent) of those who have died were in a clinical 'at risk' group for vaccination. Where vaccination status is known for this season's trivalent vaccine, only two people out of 33 had received their jab. Last year's pandemic vaccine was only received by one person out of 30, where information is available.

Professor John Watson, head of the respiratory diseases department at the HPA, said: "We are seeing a large amount of flu circulating across the country and would urge those people in an at-risk group to have their seasonal flu vaccine as soon as possible as this is the best way to protect themselves from flu this winter.

"Although there were reports of many people during the pandemic only experiencing mild disease we can't stress enough that flu can be an extremely serious illness for people in 'at risk' groups, including pregnant women, the elderly and those with other underlying conditions such as heart problems, diabetes, lung, liver or renal diseases and those who have weakened immune systems.

"Most people with flu can 'self care' by taking plenty of rest, drinking lots of fluids and taking over the counter pain relievers such as paracetamol. But anyone displaying severe symptoms, particularly those in vulnerable groups should contact their GP or local out-of-hours service for medical advice.

Professor Watson continued: "It is important that people do all they can to reduce the spread of the virus and they can do this by maintaining good cough and hand hygiene, such as covering your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough and sneeze, disposing of the tissue as soon as possible and cleaning your hands as soon you can. These are all important actions that can help prevent the spread of germs and reduce the risk of flu transmission."

ENDS

http://www.hpa.org.uk/NewsCentre/Na...0PressReleases/101231weeklynationalflureport/

 

[NS1]

Who Prefers to Risk the Children?

Who Prefers to Risk the Children?

After re-reading this article and all of the posts on the thread, it appears that extending the Christmas vacation for a week so that the schools and daycare operations could remain closed to students, might positively affect the outcome of this flu wave.

"Young children have overtaken those aged five to 14 after rates dropped among older children because of the school holidays."

The teachers and administrators could use that week to administer some work at home project(s). While vaccines are 70% effective in the best case scenario, staying away from people who are sick with flu is 100% effective. Of course, the closure can be extended a week at a time pending the disease pattern.

I know the arguments against school closure: 1) It does not decrease disease, it only flattens the curve 2) The schools are an effective "baby sitting" operation and working parents will not go to work if the schools are closed.

As to #1 - Apparently the case load for the hospitals and health care workers is straining, a flattened curve will give an opportunity for better health care delivery

As to #2 - Parents are very resourceful. They can use sick time, vacation time, grandparents, and/or work from home.

The Population Chart for the UK appears to show that the range for children aged 3 - 15 years is low as a percentage of the total population.

Doesn't it make sense to protect this vulnerable age group?

I know this is not a popular idea amongst government planners, but at FluTrackers we operate this site as parents.

Sharon,

Excellent recommendation.

Any field virologist would admit that breaking the chain of transmission is the single most successful method of controlling an epidemic. Deny a virus the luxury of an ocean of hosts and viral exponentiation is cut.

Social distancing, including reducing congregational events, removes those who would have been exposed from the transmission chain (as of that event). Depending on the timeliness of breaking that chain, case counts may be significantly reduced, peak levels may be cut and time to completion may be shortened. In general, the earlier the breaks in the chain, the higher the reduction in overall risk, suffering and cost.

Gatherings during Influenza cycles practically guarantee increased transmission and, more importantly, increase host phenotype / immune challenge range for the viral reservoir, leading to heightened levels of genetic diversity. Increased genetic diversity should be something less than desirable in a reservoir noted for accelerative change at 100% of the positions between the critical amino acid slots of 186 to 248 on the HA gene segment.

Basic logic and advanced science supports your very practical recommendation.

Do we want:

• Less Risk
• Less Suffering
• Reduced Peak Case Counts
• Reduced Duration of Epidemic

Or do we desire:

• Guaranteed Higher Transmission this week
• Higher Peak(s) in Case Counts
• Extension of Epidemic Duration
• Increase in Viral Genetic Diversity

The answers are obvious, until politics and economics enter the equation.

Would the citizens prefer to care for their well and safe children at home for a week or would parents prefer to risk a certain percentage of their children to illness, neurological sequelae and to death?

If the politicians calculate (a dangerous combination) that more parents prefer to risk their children and, in turn, the economists take those reports into labour / productivity models, we think you can see the expected outcomes.

Logic holds that schools must be closed to protect the students; however, those students are not politically capable entities with voices in the calculation. Decisions at this level move according to polls. Public involvement of those parents who choose not to risk their children is critical to increase the political will to act.

Gather & Solve (Online, not F2F)

 

[NS1]

UK Rise in Neuraminidase Inhibitor Anti-Viral Drug Resistance

UK Rise in Neuraminidase Inhibitor Anti-Viral Drug Resistance

UK Rise in Neuraminidase Inhibitor Anti-Viral Drug Resistance

The UK HPA Weekly National Influenza Reports covering the emerging epidemic from the past two weeks (Week 51 and Week 52) provide insight into data scarcity surrounding anti-viral drug resistance.

Oseltamivir-resistance may be determined genetically from a Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) H275Y on the Neuraminidase. Clinical anti-viral resistance and / or ineffectiveness in Pandemic H1N1 Influenza continues to manifest much more widely than can be attributed to the genetic variance of NA 275Y. In the future, other factors may be identified as genetically leading to the clinical manifestations in cases that do not demonstrate H275Y, but for the moment, the measurement is at that single change.

The HPA Week 51 data reported 3 TmX cases from 402 tested (~0.75%).
The HPA Week 52 data reported 5 TmX cases from 336 tested (~1.49%).

As you can see, the percentage of resistant cases week over week increased by 99%. Unfortunately, data sparsity alongside the fact of taking percentages of percentages may not allow this figure to be fully reliable for decision-making.

On the other hand, in a crisis when faced with limited testing capacity and limited testing foundation, these are the types of acceleration / deceleration calculations that must be made. Data that is available is used. GeneWurx would like to see clinical meta-data paired with genetic sequences to assist in pinpointing various HA polymorphisms that may also be associated with drug resistance, such as those trailing HA aa500.

GeneWurx has prepared an Excel spreadsheet so that the public may track any ongoing official and / or unofficial data concerning Anti-Viral resistance patterns.

GeneWurx_UK_2010_2011_Severe_Wave_TmX_v0.xls

Bear in mind that a recent seasonal influenza rapidly progressed from Anti-Viral sensitivity to Anti-Viral resistance across the world in less than one full season when the percentage of strains demonstrating NA H275Y reached approximately 2%.

More than 100 drug-resistant human Pandemic H1N1 sequences are on file considering just North America and Asia. Washington01_2010_04_02_TmX from the United States registered with 33 polymorphisms across the HA and NA gene segments. In August 2010, GeneWurx evaluated 7 sequences from Japan with extensive HA diversity and H275Y TamiFlu Resistance.

With drug resistant, hypermorphic strains carrying shared HA polymorphisms now being documented across a wide geography, will the resistant 2% begin to spread in Winter 2010-2011?

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Swine flu death woman's family criticises hospital care

The family of a woman who died of swine flu about two weeks after giving birth has criticised medical staff for not diagnosing the virus sooner.

Sarah Howard, 20, from Blackley, was suffering flu-like symptoms when she went into labour at North Manchester General Hospital on 5 December.

She suffered multiple organ failure about 24 hours after giving birth to son Harry and died on 18 December.

The hospital said it was happy to discuss her care with the family.

Ms Howard was suffering from headaches, sickness and a painful chest when she went into the hospital to give birth, her family said.

But she had not been diagnosed as suffering from the H1N1 virus when she was admitted to the intensive care unit, where she had to be resuscitated, they added.


..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-12100998