UK: 607 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

The royal college's figures show an increase in illness all age groups except schoolchildren. The worry is that flu will take off among them when schools reopen. The numbers still fall short of epidemic level, which is 200 cases per 100,000. The peak of the present outbreak has not yet been reached, however.

In London the pressure group Health Emergency claimed that intensive care beds were already under pressure and warned of problems in the new year if flu continues to spread. Geoff Martin, the group's chairman, accused the coalition of wasting money on NHS reorganisation instead of increasing intensive care capacity. "We are getting reports of intensive care units in London where up to a quarter of the beds are filled with swine flu cases and the crisis is getting worse by the day," he said, adding that "there is no doubt that many ITUs [intensive therapy units] will soon have to close to new admissions, putting hundreds of lives at risk".

The Department of Health denied there was a problem. "Our latest data shows that the number of people with confirmed or suspected flu in critical care beds is 460," said a spokesman. "This represents less than one in seven of the total critical care beds available.

"The NHS is coping very well and only a small percentage of the intensive care capacity is being taken up with patients with flu."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/dec/29/flu-cases-doctors-report

 

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Source: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...ses-continue-to-rise-in-wales-91466-27904461/

Flu cases continue to rise in Wales
Dec 29 2010 By Madeleine Brindley, WalesOnline


CASES of flu are continuing to rise in Wales as experts have warned the virus has not yet peaked.

Figures published tonight (Wednesday) by Public Health Wales show the number of people contacting their GP with flu-like symptoms increased to 92.14 per 100,000 population.

This is equivalent to more than 2,700 people, although the real number who are ill but haven't sought medical help will be much higher.

It is thought the majority of these patients are suffering from swine flu, the same virus as that responsible for last year?s pandemic.

The Welsh figures represent a modest increase on last week?s position...

 

[NS1]

UK Potential 90% Increase of Influenza Cases to Total ICU Beds

UK Potential 90% Increase of Influenza Cases to Total ICU Beds

** Caveat **

Due to data scarcity, apparently sanctioned by officials, this evaluation is forced to extrapolate from media reports.

The factor used to fill the gap is defined clearly as to source and the calculations are presented via a reusable Excel spreadsheet.

** End Caveat **

Total case count officially increased by 44.9% in the UK, but ICU beds with Influenza (London) appear to have potentially risen by up to 90%.

Notice also that official releases early today failed to provide a new count on total or district Influenza ICU cases.

The December 23rd official report (latest) showed that 1 of 7 ICU beds (~13%) were Influenza cases. Compare that figure to the 2009 pH1N1 Pandemic peak of roughly less than 1 of 12. The Health Emergency campaign group today claimed that London hospitals are reporting that up to 25% of ICU beds are Influenza cases.

For the purposes of least optimal projections, recasting the factors countrywide is a reasonable evaluation due to the fact that London appeared to be trailing in cases and severity until this report. Based on the 25% number and 3500 beds nationwide, a practical doubling is indicated of the Influenza cases percentage of ICU / ITU over 5 to 6 days and brings the total cases at this time to potentially ~875 people in Intensive Care at one time for Influenza, a 90% increase in 5 to 6 days.

GeneWurx_UK_ICU_Categories_v0.xls

Again these factors are recast from London across the entire nation due to lack of data reporting and, as such, the results may be heavily skewed in either direction. Understanding the assumptions behind the calculation allows a guidepoint to be reached. If the results prove solid, then the case count rose by ~45% while the ICU percentage, at least in one major city (London), may have increased by 90% or more.

These extrapolations suggest a severe wave that is continuing.

GeneWurx and the concerned public would be more than pleased to have these calculations invalidated by actual official reports of current information from the public health officials, alongside genetic sequences tagged according to mild, severe and fatal cases with clinical progression meta-data.

 

[NS1]

2010-12-30 Epidemic Threshold Reached, 1 to 4 Year Old UK Age Bracket

2010-12-30 Epidemic Threshold Reached, 1 to 4 Year Old UK Age Bracket

Shiloh has opened a thread discussing the fact that an epidemic threshold has been reached officially in the UK for the age range of 1 to 4 years old, the very young children.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=157361

The epidemic threshold is also being approached for the entire under 5 year old group, but has not been reached due to the low count in the under 1 year old category. The obvious question of whether these low results in the baby age bracket are accurate or due to failure to diagnose is not satisfied at this time.

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Swine flu fears give NHS 24 its busiest four-day period ever

Calls about flu have helped health service helpline NHS 24 record its busiest-ever festive period, new figures have revealed.

More than 44,000 people contacted the service between Saturday, December 25, and Tuesday, December 28, when GP surgeries across Scotland were shut.

The surge in patients comes amid concern about the growing toll swine flu is taking this winter.

Latest figures show 83 confirmed cases in Scotland, including 11 people who needed treatment in intensive care and two patients who have died. A further update is expected today.

Figures for England and Wales just released by The Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) revealed cases of flu rose by almost 50% last week. An RCGP spokesman said there had been a general increase in people falling ill across all age ranges, apart from children, with the middle-aged being particularly badly hit.

Experts believe the number of children catching flu could change when they return to school following the festive break.

Dr George Crooks, medical director of NHS 24, said flu was one of the main reasons patients were calling their service.


...


Dr Crooks added: ?NHS 24 will again have hundreds of staff available over the New Year weekend and we expect to receive thousands of calls over the coming days.

?Over the whole period of the festive holidays, we have planned for call demand in excess of 130,000.?

..

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/...period-ever-1.1077087?localLinksEnabled=false

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Number Of Flu Hospital Patients 'Rises Again'


The number of people in intensive care with flu has risen again, weekly figures from the Health Protection Agency are expected to reveal.

Although the Royal College of General Practitioners said cases rose by 50% last week, the increase is still short of epidemic levels.

But that is not the experience of all doctors.

"I think we're in the middle of a flu epidemic" say Dr David Lloyd, who has seen his workload double at his surgery in Harrow, northwest London.



"I think everyone needs to be aware that, if they have a very high fever and aches and pains, they're likely to have flu or swine flu and should be keeping away from others and isolating themselves so as not to spread it around and infect more people."

...

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK..._Expected_To_Have_Risen,_Ahead_Of_HPA_Figures

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Prince William in dramatic rescue bid of tragic swine flu mum

PRINCE William played a key role in a dramatic attempt to save the life of a new mum diagnosed with swine flu.

The Prince, 28, was flying a helicopter from his RAF base in Anglesey, North Wales, when he was diverted to pick up a life support machine from Leicester and take it to a hospital in Manchester. It was hoped the machine would help critically-ill Sarah Bowden, 20, from Manchester, who was suffering from the illness but she died earlier this month, 11 days after the birth of her son Harry.

Stepmum Kelly Sarginson, 38, said: ?William gave her a chance of survival and we will always be grateful.?


Read more: http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-st...-swine-flu-mum-115875-22815059/#ixzz19ZxkQdZD

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Winter flu at highest level for a decade

Official figures showed that children under the age of five had the highest rates of flu of any age group, with 184 cases per 100,000.


Young children have overtaken those aged five to 14 after rates dropped among older children because of the school holidays.


The figures will increase the controversy about whether young children should have been offered the seasonal flu vaccine.


Last winter, all children under five were offered the swine flu vaccine on the NHS, but a government advisory committee did not recommend that this should be repeated this winter.


Yesterday's figures from the Royal College of GPs showed that the sharpest increase in cases had been in adults aged 45 to 64, with the number of consultations almost doubling to 108 per 100,000 of the population.

Related Articles

• Winter flu cases highest for ten years: figures
  
  30 Dec 2010

Overall, cases of flu increased by almost half in the week to Boxing Day, with 124 people reporting symptoms per 100,000.

The last time seasonal flu cases were this high was during the 1999-2000 flu epidemic, when an estimated 22,000 people died.


snip

Rates were also higher than last week's levels during the 2008-9 swine flu pandemic,


snip


Officials are releasing batches of the antiviral drug Tamiflu left over from the pandemic to ease shortages of the medicine.


Officials said flu rates remained within expected levels for this time of year but cases could surge after the new year as children go back to school.


snip


Up to one in four intensive care beds in some parts of the country is being used for flu patients as NHS services come under increasing pressure.


Norovirus cases also peak at this time of year, leading to ward closures and staff shortages as patients and nurses fall ill.


snip

Pregnant women have been offered the seasonal vaccine this year for the first time because they are at greater risk of complications if they contract swine flu. But under-fives, who were also hit hard by last year's pandemic, were not included in the groups offered the seasonal jab.


The weekly report from the Royal College of GPs said: "Compared with last week's equivalent rates the incidence of influenza-like illness has increased by about 50 per cent.


"The increase was evident in all age groups except schoolchildren (for obvious holiday reasons). There has been a substantial increase in age groups 45-64. Increased incidence of other respiratory illnesses are small."
Flu consultations doubled in the North to reach 118 per 100,000 and there were smaller increases elsewhere. Flu rates remain highest in the South at 136 per 100,000 people.

snip

Health Emergency claimed there was a lack of capacity and specialist nurses that they said could put lives at risk if the flu outbreak gathered momentum.


Geoff Martin, the chairman of Health Emergency, said: “We are getting reports of intensive care units in London where up to a quarter of the beds are filled with swine flu cases and the crisis is getting worse by the day.

snip

The Department of Health said the NHS was coping well nationally and around one in seven intensive care beds was being used for flu patients. A spokesman added: “These figures are in keeping with what we would expect during a winter flu season.


more....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/8230969/Winter-flu-at-highest-level-for-a-decade.html

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

From Week 50 FluNet virological surveillance page: http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/dataQuery/reportData.asp?rptType=3

United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Seasonal A/H1N1 - 0
Seasonal A/H3N2 - 1
Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - 0
Influenza A not subtyped - 417
Influenza H1N1 (2009) - 234
Influenza B - 162

-
------

 

[NS1]

UK White Chapel Sequence Hybrid with animal H7N7 and Human Adapted Seasonal Polymorphisms

UK White Chapel Sequence Hybrid with animal H7N7 and Human Adapted Seasonal Polymorphisms

An inspection of the final syn529L polymorphism on the White Chapel sequence from the 2 year old boy, noted here and previously, demonstrates a change unique to pH1N1 even at this late stage.

Though 2 different additional versions (CCa, tTG) of this silent polymorphism at aa529 have been found in the reservoir in rare quantities, the change at the third base of the codon (CCt) for the White Chapel sequence appears to have propagated from an entirely separate origin, a human-adapted seasonal H1N1 strain circulating in 2007. With a total of 37 HA syn529L instances in human Pandemic H1N1 2009 on record for the earlier CCa and tTG codings, this novel change (CCt) may demonstrate new behaviour for this virus.

Consider that human-adapted changes from seasonal H1N1 2007 also share extensive homology with the NA for this White Chapel sequence.

Frequent change has been noted on emergent 2010 pH1N1 strains after amino acid position 500 and in some cases has been associated with fatality (502K and syn542S). In a domain briming with recent diversity, these 38 changes of three variant silent codings at a single position, aa529, offer a block of data that may interest keen investigators.

GeneWurx has prepared a rough estimation for public review in an Excel spreadsheet detailing the findings as of December 25, 2010 for syn529L as related to the current emerging epidemic in England, Wales and Scotland.

GeneWurx_UKWhiteChapel_Unique_syn529L_Variation_v0.xls

. . . . UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 (
. . . . . . . . 0A (gCC) [1918 (GCT), S7 (GCT), S5 (GCA)]
. . . . . . . . syn55L [S9, H5N1],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Darwin47_2010_08_09 with syn529L,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . Iran16273_2009_11_22 with 226R
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . NZ_Waikato2_2010_01_04 with 233H,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . tkOntarioFAV117_1C_2009_12_07 mult domain matches,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . et al],
. . . . . . . . 188T [H6N1, H7N7],
. . . . . . . . syn338G [H3N8, H4, H5, H6, sw],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [OzBrisbane209_51F_2010_08_09
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 156E & 225G,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Arizona05_2010_05_11 with 0A,
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Swine Asia 2005 with 0A, et al]
. . . . . . . . 377K,
. . . . . . . . 454N [H7N3, H7N7, H9N2]
. . . . . . . . . . [Florida14_24M_2010_08_05
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 188T, 454N,
. . . . . . . . . . FL_Pen210_2009_11_10
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 225E,
. . . . . . . . . . SouthCarolina18_2009_09_16_VxX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 159D, 224K, et al],
. . . . . . . . syn529L (CTt) [Unique to PF11]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [S7 (CTt), tn with syn338G (GGg)]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [PF11 32 Worldwide (CTa),
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PF11 5 North America (tTG)],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [swThailandCU_CHK4_2009_01 (tTG)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . with 0A, syn338G, 189T, 377G, syn451K, syn456L])

 

[NS1]

Novel UK White Chapel Neuraminidase Hybrid from animal H3N8 and Human Seasonal H1N1

Novel UK White Chapel Neuraminidase Hybrid from animal H3N8 and Human Seasonal H1N1

Neuraminidase (NA) Review

UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28

Six of the seven polymorphisms on the Neuraminidase (NA) for UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 have now been confirmed with matches to various seasonal human H1N1 (S9, S8, S7). The seventh change, a T->C (T235C) SNP, coding for 79P, is found extensively in the zoonotic reservoirs across multiple species.

This first base donor for the UK PF11 NA 79P codon (cCA) occurs at least 19 times in H3N8 from 2009 to 2005, spanning a wide range of mammal species:

• Horses
• Dogs
• Swine

Geographic significance is found in Sydney, Australia where the SNP is found in the following 2007 H3N8 animal sequences.

• H3N8 canineSydney6692_2007_10_15
• H3N8 canineSydney6525_2007_10_14
• H3N8 equineSydney6085_2007_10_10

This fact becomes of higher interest when we inspect the similarity of the dates and sample identification numbers. The possibility exists that these 3 animals were in a transmission chain on a ranch that may have included undetected or unsequenced human infection.

Note that the HA of UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 is most closely matched to an Australian sequence. The three H3N8 sequences from Sydney also carry the HA syn474C found in a separate sub-clade within the 4 UK sequences on UKCambridge118_4F_2010_11_19. Evidently, pH1N1 is moving toward homology with non-human mammal H3N8 on the HA AND the NA gene segments in two separate genetic backgrounds within the UK.

Sub-segment genetic recombinations from H3N8 onto human backgrounds are considered of interest in relation to severity.

Furthermore, the SNP coding for the NA 79P is also demonstrated in two other zoonotic Influenza serotypes. In 2009, the change appears in Eastern Europe on an Avian H7N7 sample, mallardPolandM446_2009. Recall that the UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 HA 188T may have also originated from H7N7. Furthering the animal connection, the NA 79P SNP appears on a domestic poultry, lab-derived vaccine strain on the H9 background.

This NA 79P from the animal reservoirs may have accumulated onto a very human-adapted NA in Australia / UK, generating a novel gene segment with a combination previously unknown in humans.

. . . . UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 (
. . . . . . . . 79P [SNP H3N8 (cAA), H7N7 (cTG), H9 Vx (cAt)],
. . . . . . . . . . . [PF11 12 Instances, None with syn240T or 241I],
. . . . . . . . 100H mix wt [S8, S7, WSN33 with syn240T & 241I],
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . [Avian H5N1, H11N1],
. . . . . . . . syn109G [S7],
. . . . . . . . syn240T (ACc) [S7, tn],
. . . . . . . . 241I (aTA) [1918, S7],
. . . . . . . . 369K [swIndiana17311_2010_03_17]
. . . . . . . . . . . . . [S9, S8, S7],
. . . . . . . . syn377P (CCa) [WSN33 (CCt), S7 (CCt)])

 

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Source: http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/new...ting-life/article-3050663-detail/article.html


Thursday, December 30, 2010, 09:00
Pregnant woman with swine flu is fighting for life

A pregnant mother-of-four is fighting for her life in a medically-induced coma after contracting swine flu.

Gemma Escott, 27, is on life support with kidney failure after husband Martyn, 33, took her to hospital on Christmas Day when she could not breathe properly...

 

[Tonka]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-12093409 For more info

30 December 2010 Last updated at 13:00 GMT

Winter flu claims two more lives in Scotland
Since the start of the flu season 23 people have required intensive care treatment

Two people have died from seasonal flu in the last week, bringing the total number of deaths in Scotland this winter to four.

Twelve people were also hospitalised in the last week, bringing the total so far to 23.

The NHS in Scotland said the figures were to be expected at this time of year....

 

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12094135

30 December 2010 Last updated at 10:25 ET

Flu deaths continue to increase
swine flu virus The majority of deaths were in people infected with swine flu

Thirty-nine people in the UK have now died with flu-like illnesses this winter, figures show.

All but three of them were infected with the H1N1 swine flu virus, while the remainder had influenza B, the Health Protection Agency data shows...

 

[CopitoSP]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 738 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 738 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Denis Campbell, health correspondent

guardian.co.uk

Thursday 30 December 2010 16.45 GMT

Flu deaths continue to rise


The government has been forced to take new steps to tackle seasonal flu after new figures showed there were 12 more deaths in the past week, and 738 people seriously ill in hospital.

The total number of deaths from this winter's outbreak now stands at 39, up from 27 last week, the Health Protection Agency confirmed.

Of those, 36 died from H1N1 swine flu, which is the most virulent of the two main flu strains circulating this winter. The other three died from Influenza B. All but one of the 39 was under 65, and four were under five years old.

The government will now reintroduce a media campaign to help tackle the outbreak. Labour, which earlier this week claimed the campaign had been axed, accused the government of a U-turn.

Some 61% of this year's victims were in one of the "at risk" groups who qualify for a free NHS seasonal flu jab, which include pregnant women, those with breathing conditions such as asthma and those whose immune systems are weak.

But just two of the 23 individuals had received the jab, which for the first time this year includes protection against swine flu, which claimed hundreds of lives when it began circulating in the UK in early 2009.

The figure serves to underline doctors' concerns that millions of people run the risk of infection, with potentially serious effects, because they have not been vaccinated.

The number of people with known or suspected flu being treated in critical care units in hospitals has jumped from 460 to 738 - a rise of 278 in a week.

(...)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/dec/30/flu-deaths-continue-to-rise

 

[SusanC]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

First, thanks to everyone for keeping the public informed, and thanks especially to Sharon for your heads up. I've been severely incapacitated this year as far as computer use is concerned, am only catching up to bits and pieces, so the following comments are only based on what's on this thread the the links that you all have so kindly provided.

Such caveats aside, here're my thoughts, FWIW. The rate of increase in ILI in recent weeks may seem dramatic but is actually typical for UK, because of high degree of population mixing simply from daily routines. Someone mentioned the recent travel chaos as opportunity for extra mixing - I don't even think we need any extra reason, quite simply the degree of mixing from 'normal' life is sufficicent for very efficient transmission, as evidenced by the difference in pandemic experience in summer 2009 between the UK and the US http://www.newfluwiki2.com/diary/4115/are-we-done-here

The outbreak is also seemingly dramatic compared to last year, but only because there was an out-of-season outbreak in the summer with the new H1N1, such that the winter outbreak in 2009 was somewhat dampened, but if you look at longer time trends (see <a href="http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1284475036543" target="_blank">HPA Influenza Surveillance graphs</a>), it hasn't reached the 2008/09 peak yet. Note that the ILI outbreaks in UK tend to peak very quickly, so I suspect the peak is either already reached or almost reached, by now.

Also, given there is a new virus for whom a portion of the population is still immunologically naive, I would be surprised if we didn't see a bigger seasonal ILI epidemic this year compared to the same time-point in recent years, even if we exclude last year for the above reason.

With all the in mind, personally, all I'm seeing is a 'big' flu outbreak that is still within the range of 'normal' seasonal flu, and, given the number of infected people, I'm not seeing any reasons for concern with the mortality figures so far, granted that anything that affects younger populations is always of more concern (on both compassionate and public health levels) than what affects the elderly. Note that the HPA charts show a very small increase in all cause mortality, but still within normal variations, but mortality for respiratory causes remains flat.

 

[Hogweed]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Note that the HPA charts show a very small increase in all cause mortality, but still within normal variations, but mortality for respiratory causes remains flat.

Susan, the chart I see shows a large increase in all cause mortality which is outside expected range. This week's report repeats the same figure for Week 49 as last week's report with no explanation when it should have had the week 50 data. Hopefully this is just a Christmas late data issue as I'd really like to see what happened after this

In week 49, an estimated 11,193 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics), an increase from the previous week and now above the upper limit of expected levels for this time of year (figure 8). Potential factors for this increase include recent cold weather and circulating respiratory viruses.

Figure 8: Observed and predicted all-cause mortality

 

[SusanC]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Susan, the chart I see shows a large increase in all cause mortality which is outside expected range. This week's report repeats the same figure for Week 49 as last week's report with no explanation when it should have had the week 50 data. Hopefully this is just a Christmas late data issue as I'd really like to see what happened after this

In week 49, an estimated 11,193 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales (source: Office for National Statistics), an increase from the previous week and now above the upper limit of expected levels for this time of year (figure 8). Potential factors for this increase include recent cold weather and circulating respiratory viruses.

Figure 8: Observed and predicted all-cause mortality

You have to look at the actual mortality charts from previous years (ie the 2 charts above the one you posted, sorry, can't post pics, too many clicks needed). Look at the all causes chart from previous years, and you'll see that every year, there's a peak starting around this time that breaks way out of the so-called 'prediction' chart that you're showing (which renders the prediction chart almost totally useless for this period, IMHO). Then look at the actual mortality chart for respiratory causes.

The caveat is this is still early days, so the respiratory deaths can still shoot up, just that so far I'm not seeing any signal for concern from these charts, that's all.

 

[Hogweed]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 39 Deaths and 700+ Patients in intensive care (39 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 30 2010) due to influenza

You have to look at the actual mortality charts from previous years (ie the 2 charts above the one you posted, sorry, can't post pics, too many clicks needed). Look at the all causes chart from previous years, and you'll see that every year, there's a peak starting around this time that breaks way out of the so-called 'prediction' chart that you're showing (which renders the prediction chart almost totally useless for this period, IMHO). Then look at the actual mortality chart for respiratory causes.

The caveat is this is still early days, so the respiratory deaths can still shoot up, just that so far I'm not seeing any signal for concern from these charts, that's all.

Thanks for the explanation. Still would be nice to see the data for the following week though.

 

[NS1]

UK Severe Influenza Cases in ICU Percentage Update

UK Severe Influenza Cases in ICU Percentage Update

** Please note that the figure of 738 ICU Influenza patients has been defined by RoRo as being only for England. Figures for Wales, Scotland and Ireland will be produced as they are available. **

Total case count officially increased by 44.9% in the UK, but ICU beds with Influenza (HPA Week 52) appear to have risen at the substantially higher rate of 60%.

The December 23rd official report (latest) showed that 1 of 7 ICU beds (~13%) were Influenza cases. Compare that figure to the 2009 pH1N1 Pandemic peak of roughly less than 1 of 12. The 738 ICU cases reported today demonstrate that UK hospitals are utilising 1 of 5 ICU beds for Severe Influenza cases.

GeneWurx_UK_ICU_Categories_v1.xls

These extrapolations suggest a severe wave that is continuing.

GeneWurx and the concerned public would like like to thank the officials who released the data today. Additional information is, however, required, including more frequent updates on cases, ICU cases and fatalities, alongside genetic sequences tagged according to mild, severe and fatal cases with clinical progression meta-data.