UK: 607 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Source: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/219738/Swine-flu-could-kill-hundreds-of-UK-children-

SWINE FLU COULD ‘KILL HUNDREDS OF UK CHILDREN’

Read more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view...d-kill-hundreds-of-UK-children-#ixzz19NKUXngj​

The number of all age groups infected with flu has nearly tripled within a week
Tuesday December 28,2010
By Jane Mathews


A FLU epidemic could claim hundreds of young lives this winter, an expert has warned.

Nine of the 27 flu fatalities this year have been children and the figures are set to rise, influenza expert Professor John Oxford has predicted.

Figures show that in the run-up to Christmas the infection rate among those aged five to 14 rose from 58 to 160 per 100,000 people – close to the epidemic threshold of 200 per 100,000.

Professor Oxford, of Bart’s and the Royal London Hospital, said that within a week rising infections in all age groups could bring the first flu *epidemic since 2000, when thousands of elderly people died.

This time, he warned, many of the victims are likely to be children, who are particularly vulnerable to swine flu, the most dominant strain of the virus.

Prof Oxford said: “The infection rates in the five to 14-year-old age group have almost reached epidemic levels already, and I think they will go up.

“If the trend continues I would not be surprised if we get to epidemic levels within one week. The over-60 age group has got immunity because they have probably seen this virus before.

“Younger people are vulnerable because they haven’t seen this virus before – but they are more resilient. The worst case scenario would be a couple of hundred deaths. That’s more than enough, but we’re not talking thousands...”

Thanks Shiloh.

I find some of Dr. Oxford's statements exploitative. We may have a very serious situation here and we need to know the motivations of "the players".



"Professor John Oxford, President, Scientific Director

Professor John Oxford is President, Scientific Director and founder of Retroscreen Virology Ltd and Professor of Virology at St Bartholomew’s and the Royal London Hospital, Queen Mary’s School of Medicine and Dentistry. He has co-authored two standard texts: ‘Influenza, the Viruses and the Disease' with Sir Charles Stuart-Harris and G.C. Schild and most recently, "Human Virology, a Text for Students of Medicine, Dentistry and Microbiology", published by Oxford University Press. Professor Oxford has also published 250 scientific papers."


http://www.retroscreen.com/index.php/directors




and guess what? - yes, you guessed it...



"Retroscreen Virology is Europe’s leading specialist virology contract research organisation (CRO). The work we conduct is dedicated to creating the next generation of antivirals and vaccines for a number of respiratory and enteric viral diseases. Our research ranges from pre-clinical (analytical) services through first-into-man (Phase 1a) studies and into human challenge studies (Phase 1b and Phase 2a proof-of-concept)."


http://www.retroscreen.com/




Some recent headlines quoting Dr. Oxford:

"However, virologist Professor John Oxford said: “The time has come to move to vaccinating young children. I appreciate mothers are concerned but the vaccine is safe and swine flu is not.”

Read more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view...e-vaccinated-against-swine-flu-#ixzz19NLHzdss

"Prof Oxford said: "That's the paradoxical thing. There were fewer deaths across those age groups compared to younger people last year. The only thing is, younger people can't be persuaded to have the vaccine."

Asked why fewer young people are getting inoculated, he said: "The problem is that on websites like Twitter people are saying we're all going to die from the vaccine, but that is utter nonsense.'"


http://www.google.com/hostednews/uk...PIm6sqbejsxxn0kig?docId=N0223861292724995792A


​

I am really, really tired of people using a calamity to sell something.


Really tired.....


Disgusting.....

 

[NS1]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Thanks Shiloh.

I find some of Dr. Oxford's statements exploitative. We may have a very serious situation here and we need to know the motivations of "the players".



"Professor John Oxford, President, Scientific Director

Professor John Oxford is President, Scientific Director and founder of Retroscreen Virology Ltd and Professor of Virology at St Bartholomew?s and the Royal London Hospital, Queen Mary?s School of Medicine and Dentistry. He has co-authored two standard texts: ?Influenza, the Viruses and the Disease' with Sir Charles Stuart-Harris and G.C. Schild and most recently, "Human Virology, a Text for Students of Medicine, Dentistry and Microbiology", published by Oxford University Press. Professor Oxford has also published 250 scientific papers."


http://www.retroscreen.com/index.php/directors




and guess what? - yes, you guessed it...



"Retroscreen Virology is Europe?s leading specialist virology contract research organisation (CRO). The work we conduct is dedicated to creating the next generation of antivirals and vaccines for a number of respiratory and enteric viral diseases. Our research ranges from pre-clinical (analytical) services through first-into-man (Phase 1a) studies and into human challenge studies (Phase 1b and Phase 2a proof-of-concept)."


http://www.retroscreen.com/




Some recent headlines quoting Dr. Oxford:

"However, virologist Professor John Oxford said: ?The time has come to move to vaccinating young children. I appreciate mothers are concerned but the vaccine is safe and swine flu is not.?​

Read more: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view...e-vaccinated-against-swine-flu-#ixzz19NLHzdss​

"Prof Oxford said: "That's the paradoxical thing. There were fewer deaths across those age groups compared to younger people last year. The only thing is, younger people can't be persuaded to have the vaccine."​

Asked why fewer young people are getting inoculated, he said: "The problem is that on websites like Twitter people are saying we're all going to die from the vaccine, but that is utter nonsense.'"​

http://www.google.com/hostednews/uk...PIm6sqbejsxxn0kig?docId=N0223861292724995792A​

I am really, really tired of people using a calamity to sell something.


Really tired.....


Disgusting.....

An attempt to sell something is only the tip of the iceburg.

Reliance on outdated modes of thinking has traditionally limited the effectiveness of solutions when an inflection point is reached. This overly systemised and bounded thought process has reduced the chamber of solutions to a set that is today being proven imprecise and overly narrow.


When solutions are not effective, two strategies are possible.

• Create solutions
• Promote the current ineffective paradigms as being viable

We'll be seeing a great deal of promotional marketing and very little discovery science if this severe wave continues and spreads.

Gather & Solve.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

It is not the first time that some companies have taken the scene during health crisis and unfortunately this will not be the last.

In any case, United Kingdom Health Protection Agency has issued on December 24 an updated antiviral drugs guidance.

An edited text could be read at: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=157221

Among the others things cited in the document, the recommendation to use zanamivir in immunocompromised patients in order to avoid emersion of oseltamivir-resistant H1N1 (2009) variants.

For compassionate purpose other antiviral agents not approved for mass use can also be requested: intravenous zanamivir, peramivir and laninamivir.

Immune serum can also be considered for severe cases if not other viable resource are available and for compassionate use.

Sadly, some of these antivirals are awaiting approval for years - for example peramivir - and until now national and supernational organization have not feel the need for issuing guidance on the priority drug approval - since relying only on oseltamivir is clearly not enough for public health.

Anew, I hope that authorities will soon recommend also the implementation of some social distancing measures in order to reduce the spread of the H1N1 (2009) in settings where the infection is causing an excess in morbidity and mortality among young adults and children.

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Hospitals dealing with 50 cases of swine flu

Fifty cases of swine flu are being dealt with in hospitals across Greater Manchester.

Manchester Royal Infirmary, Wythenshawe and Tameside hospitals all have confirmed cases. At least 17 people across the three sites are in critical or intensive care. But the hospitals say they have not been overwhelmed by demand.

There have been eight deaths in the region linked to the H1N1 bug.

A spokeswoman for Wythenshawe hospital said it appears to have ‘turned a corner’ in terms of the bug.

She said: "We are not seeing as many coming in as we did last week but we have got seven patients in critical care."

At MRI there are 30-35 people with confirmed swine flu.

But duty director Jill Heaton said the picture was not unusual.

She said: "We have had quite a lot of attendance of patients who think they have got flu, swine flu or otherwise. But we’d get a lot of people admitted with flu anyway." At Tameside hospital ten patients have swine flu, two of them admitted over Christmas weekend. In total six are in intensive care.

Other hospitals say they have had no confirmed cases.

...

http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereve..._hospitals_dealing_with_50_cases_of_swine_flu

 

[NS1]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

...
Anew, I hope that authorities will soon recommend also the implementation of some social distancing measures in order to reduce the spread of the H1N1 (2009) in settings where the infection is causing an excess in morbidity and mortality among young adults and children.

We couldn't agree more.

Pressing for handwashing and sneeze-capture as valid mediation techniques is something less than honest against a respiratory disease that can float on the air in a crowded room of mammals inhaling and exhaling. Reduce the density, increase the spacing and watch the epidemic decelerate.

 

[NS1]

Early Pandemic 188T from Japan released this week

Early Pandemic 188T from Japan released this week

The Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine in Sendai, Japan released a sequence dated only as 2009 (MDCK passage) that carries the 188T featuring on the sub-clade building recently in the UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 sequence.

. . . . JapanSendaiTU617_2009 (
. . . . . . . . syn16T,
. . . . . . . . syn84E,
. . . . . . . . 174R,
. . . . . . . . syn177L (CTt),
. . . . . . . . 188T,
. . . . . . . . 200T)

The Sendai sequence is complete and demonstrates none of the trailing polymorphisms of the emergent strains found across Australia, England and Iran. Additional date specificity and host meta-data would clarify the positioning of this sequence in the genetic acquisition train.

HA 188T rapidly emerged geographically throughout 2010 and is now found in 26 pH1N1 Human and 1 pH1N1 swine sequences across Africa, Asia, India, Oceania, the UK, Brunei, Iran and the United States.

 

[JJackson]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Flu has changed and it is taking a little time for the public to catch up with the new normal. While flu has always been a big killer it has been largely hidden due to the age group being killed (95% over 65 – US figures for pre H1N1(2009)) but now while the numbers may not be that different the severe – and potentially fatal – distribution is. As I had two sisters who were pregnant – one in France and one in Spain – late last year I know first hand how difficult it is to persuade the pregnant to do anything that could put the baby at risk and while neither were anti-vaccine both were uncharacteristically immune to logic. They knew where the greater risk lay but one route needed an active decision, including a small risk, which they found very difficult to take - for a third, with asthma, it was a no brainier as the decision only effected her.
While ‘old’ seasonal flu was an existential risk for a clearly defined group now, for H1N1(2009), the group largely excludes the aged – although they still need to be vaccinated as the H3N2 risk is still just as real. The complication is that the high risk now applies to a percentage of the general population for whom the previous seasonal flus were not life threatening. At present there is no way to predict who these people will be and consequently they can not be protected except by extending the vaccine program to include everybody, merely to catch the small proportion of the general population who have an adverse reaction and find themselves in respiratory distress.
The UK’s NHS system slightly complicates matters further in that for most of the population health care is not elective in the sense that a body called NICE decides, by a cost benefit analysis system, what the country can afford to provide and few people venture outside this regime – which they would need to do if they wished to have a flu shot but were not in one of the predefined at risk groups.

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Doctors have expressed alarm that the two decisions have left thousands of children at risk of contracting deadly strains of the virus.

Nine of the 27 people who have died of flu this winter are children, while 26 of the 460 patients now in intensive care with flu are aged under five.

The Department of Health’s own figures show that immunisation rates among children and other at-risk groups are down on last year.

While two out of three pensioners have had a flu jab, just 41.5 per cent in high risk groups under-65 – including children, pregnant women and those with respiratory disorders – have been inoculated.

Last year the take-up rate was 47 per cent for the under-65s.

In January, the Government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation advised that it would be ‘prudent’ to include children aged six months to five years in this winter’s flu vaccine programme.

But the advice was dropped in July after it was sent to Mr Lansley.

Labour health spokesman John Healey said Mr Lansley had ‘made the wrong judgment’ in ditching the vaccinations for young children.

He told the Daily Mail: ‘The serious problem lies with the groups that are most at risk, like children.

‘That has come because the Government axed the annual advertising campaign and they cancelled the flu jab plan for the under-fives.

‘The Health Secretary has been silent. The only attention he’s paid to preparations for this winter’s flu outbreak was to axe the autumn advertising campaign to encourage people to get vaccinated and make them aware of the risks.

‘He made the wrong judgment which has left many people without the flu protection they should have.

‘The lessons were learned last year and they have been quickly forgotten.

‘We know this is not normal winter flu, which affects the elderly. This is flu that affects the young.’

NHS helpline facing up to 30,000 calls today

The NHS Direct helpline faces its busiest day of the year today, as the service is stretched to breaking point.

A deluge of 30,000 calls is expected due to the rise in swine flu cases, the worst outbreak of seasonal flu for a decade and injuries caused by the snow and ice.

The service admits callers have had to wait up to 20 hours for help over the Christmas holiday after inquiries surged by 50 per cent.

Meanwhile, cuts in funding of around £20million have increased pressures, according to Unison, the UK’s largest union.

Figures show 460 adults and children are in intensive care in England because of flu, taking up one in seven of all available beds.





Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...gger-surge-influenza-cases.html#ixzz19PetwJuJ

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

I want my news straight. No embellishments. Just the facts.

People are already "turned off" to flu and pandemic issues.

The last thing we need is some guy running around screaming that the sky is falling.

Then no one will listen to pandemic preparedness at all.

An influenza pandemic is still the largest threat to mankind.

We now have documentation of, limited and unlimited, human to human transmission of 3 novel influenza strains: A/H1N1, A/H5N1 and tr/H3N2.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

I want my news straight. No embellishments. Just the facts.

People are already "turned off" to flu and pandemic issues.

The last thing we need is some guy running around screaming that the sky is falling.

Then no one will listen to pandemic preparedness at all.

An influenza pandemic is still the largest threat to mankind.

We now have documentation of, limited and unlimited, human to human transmission of 3 novel influenza strains: A/H1N1, A/H5N1 and tr/H3N2.

Are some guys screaming about falling sky?

I am clearly remembering when - as assitant nurse - in the 1998/1999 winter flu outbreak I had a job in a long-term care facility, where inpatients had an average age of more than 75.

No pandemic flu that time.

But the most frail among the patients eventually died after brief course of illness, some alone with no relatives or friends to help the departure.

A eight bed ward was full at midday and empty at sunrise.

It was an 'average' year for flu, but it was going almost unnoticed.

Until the illness remained confined to the most frail, no news, no 'experts' opinions, no govt meetings.

But at New Year Eve, finally, flu spread exceeded the recent years threshold and a lot of people - young adults, children - filled emergency departments all around the peninsula, with subsequent engulfed primary care, in Italy operated by family doctors.

During 1998/1999 outbreak, a brief holiday was assured to family doctors, so that for three days most of the population affected by the flu was without assistance. Panic was sparked by unnerved newslines but with the return of the doctors, the situation finally ameliorated.

Morale: a combination of effects caused a widespread distress in population and in public health system.

Solution: More INFORMATION!

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Girl, 17, dies just 48 hours after contracting swine flu in hospital

A teenage girl is the latest person to die from swine flu after she contracted the virus in hospital.

Natalie Hill, 17, passed away less than 48 hours after doctors at Hull Royal Infirmary discovered she had the H1N1 virus. She was also suffering from a heart condition and blood poisoning.

Yesterday her devastated parents paid tribute to a 'delightful' daughter.

The teenager suffered from serious health problems all her life and was in hospital because of complications from a rare condition she has battled since birth, when she picked up swine flu.

Born weighing just 2lbs and with a condition that destroys part of the intestines, she spent the first nine months of her life in a specialist intensive care unit.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...racting-swine-flu-HOSPITAL.html#ixzz19R1kHCa3

 

[NS1]

Data Transparency and Data Currency Sorts to Data Accuracy At the End of the Day

Data Transparency and Data Currency Sorts to Data Accuracy At the End of the Day

Are some guys screaming about falling sky?

I am clearly remembering when - as assitant nurse - in the 1998/1999 winter flu outbreak I had a job in a long-term care facility, where inpatients had an average age of more than 75.

No pandemic flu that time.

But the most frail among the patients eventually died after brief course of illness, some alone with no relatives or friends to help the departure.

A eight bed ward was full at midday and empty at sunrise.

It was an 'average' year for flu, but it was going almost unnoticed.

Until the illness remained confined to the most frail, no news, no 'experts' opinions, no govt meetings.

But at New Year Eve, finally, flu spread exceeded the recent years threshold and a lot of people - young adults, children - filled emergency departments all around the peninsula, with subsequent engulfed primary care, in Italy operated by family doctors.

During 1998/1999 outbreak, a brief holiday was assured to family doctors, so that for three days most of the population affected by the flu was without assistance. Panic was sparked by unnerved newslines but with the return of the doctors, the situation finally ameliorated.

Morale: a combination of effects caused a widespread distress in population and in public health system.

Solution: More INFORMATION!

Well developed and timely practitioner insight, IOH!

History, with details, is an excellent guide to human behaviour, even in an age of advanced technology. No amount of machinery, chemistry or brilliant technique is useful unless the solution is brought to bear at the precise TIME that the problem is occurring. Human willpower, creativity, surveillance and courage are required to match solutions to novel problems and the pivot is the information available to make rational decisions.

How many times has the scientific community discovered valuable information only to publish months after the usefulness or actionability of the information has passed?

Applaud the doctors at Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine in Sendai, Japan for combing their coffers and depositing their 2009 HA 188T sequence. Though the data may have seemed statistically unmoving at the time of sample, today we have a foundation point for the polymorphism entering the ΣPF11 reservoir.


Applaud enthusiastically if the UK public health officials make timely publication a priority for updated numbers on the ICU beds being occupied by Influenza sufferers. Stand and applaud if they produce and deposit a full complement of genetic sequences from each clinical category with meta-data:

• Mild
• Severe
• Fatal

More eyes on the key data early in the process may initiate a discovery cycle that becomes exponentially beneficial . . . if we start now.

Data Transparency and Data Currency Sorts to Data Accuracy At the End of the Day.

Calling for "action" and taking action are two different things. If each of the individuals and offices calling for "action" based on political motivation were to take stock of their position and take the action of releasing the abundant data they are currently withholding, the increase in opportunity for optimal solutions would be statistically significant in this winter's Years of Life Lost calculation.

History, as has been examined here by IronOreHopper, provides details, sometimes too late due to political posturing. When a genetic variant animal influenza "jumps" to humans in a reassortment or even an accumulation of SNPs as 2010 Pandemic H1N1 is showing, rapid analysis may save lives.

1918 demonstrated abundantly what could happen in 30 days. The Ukraine flashfire last year in late 2009 updated those concerns for accelerated transmission in just over 10 days to 1 million cases and the trending toward 1,000 human fatalities from a small population in slightly more than 75 days.

Let's work to bring viable solutions to the table before the end of the day, before the end of life, for those who have placed their trust in leaders to steward them through these types of crises.

Gather and Solve.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Winter flu outbreak has not yet reached its peak, doctors warn

• H1N1 and other strains are on an 'upward trajectory'
• Figures out tomorrow are expected to show a jump

• guardian.co.uk, <time datetime="2010-12-28T22:08GMT" pubdate="">Tuesday 28 December 2010 22.08 GMT </time>

snip

"We are still on the upward trajectory. We probably haven't quite reached the peak yet," said Dr Meirion Evans, of the UK Faculty of Public Health, which represents public health doctors working in the NHS, local councils and academia.


"My guess is that it will reach a peak either this week or early next week, and will then start coming down. But we will continue to see seasonal flu around for most of January. So it's still got four to five weeks to run." Evans, a public health consultant and consultant epidemiologist in Cardiff, is also a member of the scientific advisory committee on pandemic flu, which advises the government on how to prevent outbreaks.


The number of people affected has been increasing for about three weeks, he added. But he said the next seven days should bring the high point of the winter flu season, which usually lasts for six to eight weeks. While seasonal flu usually begins in earnest at the start of January, this year it struck in early December, although experts cannot explain why.

snip

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2010/dec/28/flu-nhs-hospital-winter

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

about Dr Meirion Evans:

New swine-flu discovery by Wales-based panel

Dec 23 2010 by Madeleine Brindley, Western Mail



PUBLISHED research has confirmed the first cases of person-to-person spread of a strain of swine flu resistant to the drug Tamiflu.


A study by Public Health Wales experts has analysed an outbreak of the resistant strain in patients being treated at the University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, last year.


Eight patients of 11 who contracted swine flu while being treated on the hospital’s haematology unit were found to have infections resistant to Tamiflu (oseltamivir).


snip

The article is by Dr Catherine Moore, principal clinical scientist, regional epidemiologists Dr Roland Salmon and Dr Meirion Evans, and Dr Eleri Roberts, who is director of the Welsh Healthcare Associated Infections programme.

snip


Read More http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...les-based-panel-91466-27873018/#ixzz19S9dEzHC​

​

 

[JJackson]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

"My guess is that it will reach a peak either this week or early next week, and will then start coming down. But we will continue to see seasonal flu around for most of January. So it's still got four to five weeks to run."

I am probably a little less sanguine about the peak being reached next week than Dr. Evans. Christmas and the New Year bring a significant change in the interactions between people switching from work/school interactions to family and back again. This is a shake-up that I would expect to cause significant reseeding in new areas.

IOH's reminiscence regarding his experiences caring for the elderly is exactly what I was referring to earlier in “While flu has always been a big killer it has been largely hidden due to the age group being killed (95% over 65 – US figures for pre H1N1(2009))”. H3N2 is still the scourge of nursing homes but is not very news worthy or visible to the general public. Deaths from infectious diseases in developed countries are now fairly rare, among the otherwise young and healthy, and may be something we need to adjust to again.

 

[NS1]

Peak Calculations versus Peak Opinions

Peak Calculations versus Peak Opinions

I am probably a little less sanguine about the peak being reached next week than Dr. Evans. Christmas and the New Year bring a significant change in the interactions between people switching from work/school interactions to family and back again. This is a shake-up that I would expect to cause significant reseeding in new areas.

We're with you, JJackson.

Neither the clinical nor genetic data indicates these 7 Day "Best Case" scenarios for THE peak that are being painted by those considered experts / thought leaders. Perhaps a slowing in cases in one city / hospital has caused the speakers to miss the dozen that are increasing down the street and over the dale. Mini-cycles are common, especially geographically, when dealing with zoonoticly driven Influenza strains.

Little new information has been published since the ICU count acceleration (100 -> 182 -> 302 -> 460 cases) was last reported on December 23rd? Five days have passed during an accelerative phase without significant data sharing?

Last year, the Ukraine Ministry of Health managed to provide daily updates throughout a strikingly difficult influenza crisis. The <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">UK, in contrast,</st1lace></st1:country-region> has given us a few numbers here and there, alongside 4 sequences taken prior to the severe wave onset with no clinical meta-data?

If lucid data does, in fact, exist to support these opinions with backing calculations based on current viral dynamics, the public would be very keen to review those suppositions.

After all, aren't these the same people who have repeated the chant, "flu is unpredictable, flu is unpredictable", in hundreds of press releases for the past 5 months? How are they suddenly able to predict influenza behaviour with such confidence?


Have they stopped blaming the victims of their negligence long enough to actually undertake the feeding and evaluation of accurate models?

• Where is that data?
• What are their heuristics?
• What are the assumptions?
• Are those assumptions built on Seasonal Flu or Zoonotic Flu?

Science is purportedly the process of knowledge discovery through observational evidence. A bedrock of the scientific method is reproducibility of experimental / decision outcomes based on data transparency and the surfacing of techniques.

The public would like to see this rich bed of observational evidence related to zoonoticly active Influenza that is the foundation for these 7 Day Single Peak predictions.

Or perhaps the speakers would be willing to properly couch their "suggestions", their opinions, in specific language defining their imprecise methods reliant on an experimental testbed that is less than robust. At any rate, the public needs more than this incessant chanting about ?under control?, ?within normal limits? and ?peaking in 7 days?.

<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<o></o>
More data, more transparency, more action.

Less chatter.

 

[NS1]

Data Transparency and Collaboration

Data Transparency and Collaboration

Collaboration requires data sharing, sometimes when the data is uncomfortably rough or even inexplicable. But that's the purpose of collaboration, right?

We collaborate to discover something that we did not already know. We collaborate when world health is in question.

UK_December_Emerging_Genetics_v0.xls


This GeneWurx Version Zero Excel spreadsheet represents an effort to externalise to the public our current rough lab notes on the 4 published UK HA gene segments and worldwide HA sequences that we've ascertained may be related. UK titles and UK polymorphisms are color-coded green wherever they are found.

Each column represents a sequence of interest. The rows are filled with change data ordered by the amino acid position. This presentation of detailed data obviously required some careful editing for brevity. Even so, the reviewer will be inclined to scroll and / or hide columns in order to fully review relationships.

The materials demonstrate the flow of genetic data from the Southern Hemisphere 2010 into the Northern Hemisphere today. For example, investigate the various similarities from columns AQ to AZ. The UKWhiteChapel4880374_2M_2010_11_28 sequence in column AX is our primary interest due to patterning suggestive of a capability to carry 156E / 158E and / or 225G.

The authors are grateful to GenBank and GISAID for making their depository of valuable genetic material accessible and to those from many countries who have shared their sequences for the sake of public health. We also are thankful to a certain physicist who initiated the concept and layout for public presentation of this detailed genetics data.

As always, any errors are those of the authoring team. Please provide errata via private message as you discover required corrections.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

New swine-flu discovery by Wales-based panel

Dec 23 2010 by Madeleine Brindley, Western Mail



PUBLISHED research has confirmed the first cases of person-to-person spread of a strain of swine flu resistant to the drug Tamiflu.


A study by Public Health Wales experts has analysed an outbreak of the resistant strain in patients being treated at the University Hospital of Wales, Cardiff, last year.


Eight patients of 11 who contracted swine flu while being treated on the hospital?s haematology unit were found to have infections resistant to Tamiflu (oseltamivir).


snip

The article is by Dr Catherine Moore, principal clinical scientist, regional epidemiologists Dr Roland Salmon and Dr Meirion Evans, and Dr Eleri Roberts, who is director of the Welsh Healthcare Associated Infections programme.

snip


Read More http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...les-based-panel-91466-27873018/#ixzz19S9dEzHC​

​

For this reason the updated guidelines for antiviral drugs treatment in the UK clearly states that immunocompromised patients have to be treated with zanamivir and not with oseltamivir at first instance. See the document at: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=157221

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza


Hospital patient in swine flu death


A woman suffering from swine flu has died in the West Midlands as hospitals battled rising cases of the disease, it emerged today.

The victim was in her 70s and had been a patient at New Cross Hospital in Wol-verhampton for over a week when she passed away in Intensive Care on Monday.

The unnamed woman was showing symptoms of the disease on her admission last week and tests later confirmed that she was a sufferer.

But she had other underlying medical conditions that could have caused or contributed to her death.

The woman who died, and is believed to have lived in Wolverhampton, was also showing signs of pneumonia and a potentially serious lung condition.

The hospital?s chief executive David Loughton said: ?We would urge people, especially those at risk chronic lung condition, asthma, heart problems, the elderly and pregnant women, to have the flu jab as a matter of urgency.?

Mid Staffordshire NHS Foundation Trust said it was treating seven people with flu, including swine flu cases.


Read more: http://www.expressandstar.com/news/2010/12/29/hospital-patient-in-swine-flu-death/#ixzz19VRgqYOr

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 31 Deaths and 460 Patients in intensive care (27 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 23 2010) due to influenza

29 December 2010 Last updated at 08:05 ET

GPs report flu cases rose again last week

By Helen Briggs Health reporter, BBC News

Flu cases have risen again in England and Wales, but have not reached epidemic levels, according to figures from GPs.


The flu tally reached 124 per 100,000 of the population in the week ending 26 December, from 86 cases in the previous week.


Health officials in England define an epidemic as 200 cases per 100,000.

snip

The latest figures show the incidence of flu has risen by about 50% in the past week.

snip

Flu cases have risen steadily in England and Wales from 32.8 per 100,000 in week 49, to 85.8 in week 50, to 124.4 in week 51.


more at...


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12089488