UK: 607 confirmed fatalities due to influenza

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Approximately 24 Deaths and +100 Patients stated to be critically ill (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Approximately 24 Deaths and +100 Patients stated to be critically ill (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

hat tip CopitoSP -

With 14 people dead from swine flu and 190 in intensive care......

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...k-need-know-protect-family.html#ixzz18hDyHyEc


By Jerome Burne
Last updated at 9:46 PM on 20th December 2010

snip
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...k-need-know-protect-family.html#ixzz18hE5u68U


?Something different is happening this year,? says Bob Winter, president of the Intensive Care Society and a consultant in Nottingham.


?The number of people in intensive care is increasing. In the North-West, there are more than at the peak of last year?s pandemic.?


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...k-need-know-protect-family.html#ixzz18hCv8QSK​

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Thank You WHO & Collaborating Labs (Health Protection Agency and other UK officials) for Today's Release of Recent (October and November) A/H1N1 sequences. :applause::applause::applause:

Please release December sequences too. :tiphat:

 

[Shiloh]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ber-patients-intensive-care-doubles-week.html

Swine flu: 200 fight for life as number of patients in intensive care doubles in a week

By Sophie Borland
Last updated at 1:45 AM on 21st December 2010

* Fears virus has grown more virulent over last year
* NHS managers draw up emergency plans to tackle outbreak

Nearly 200 swine flu victims were fighting for their lives last night.

The number of patients in intensive care has doubled in a week and many of them are either elderly or pregnant.

Seventeen of the 190 are being kept alive by highly-specialised heart and lung machines ? three times the usual number...

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Swine flu: three more deaths as 200 fight for life

The new deaths would take the total to 20 so far this winter, with the majority linked to the H1N1 swine flu virus. Laboratory tests on the latest deaths in Leicester are awaited.

Dr Philip Monk, communicable diseases consultant for the Health Protection Agency (HPA) in the East Midlands, said: "It is the worst winter outbreak for influenza and viruses for 10 years.

"There are a lot of illnesses out there. Vulnerable people, like young children, are at risk. Unfortunately some of them die."

A health analysis company last night predicted about 200 swine flu victims could be fighting for their lives based on reports by GPs and chemists.

Nationally, flu levels remain normal for this time of year but cases have doubled in a week.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/s...-three-more-deaths-as-200-fight-for-life.html

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Sixth swine flu patient treated at Coventry University Hospital

ANOTHER patient seriously ill with swine flu has been admitted to Coventry?s University Hospital.

It means a total of six people - a mix of men and women - are currently being treated for the deadly virus in the hospital?s critical care unit.

Doctors there said all the patients had underlying illnesses which meant they were vulnerable to catching the bug.

A hospital spokeswoman added: ?As they are currently receiving treatment we will not be releasing further details about them.?

A nationwide rise in the number of cases has sparked fears of a repeat of last year?s pandemic.

People at a high risk of catching the bug ? including children, pregnant women and those over 65 - are urged to get a free flu jab, which is available through their GP.

http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/ne...-coventry-university-hospital-92746-27860748/

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

I invite readers to analyze with care the following excerpt from above piece of news and updates:

Post no. 24: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=383200&postcount=24

(...)

A health analysis company last night predicted about 200 swine flu victims could be fighting for their lives based on reports by GPs and chemists.

Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/s...-three-more-deaths-as-200-fight-for-life.html


Post No 23: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=383166&postcount=23

Nearly 200 swine flu victims were fighting for their lives last night.

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ber-patients-intensive-care-doubles-week.html


Post No. 20: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=383133&postcount=20

(...)

WHO said:

''Available data indicate that the currently circulating strain of the H1N1 (2009) virus in the UK is epidemiologically and virologically similar to that observed last year during the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic.

(...)

''All influenza viruses characterized to date have been found to be similar to the strains currently included in the seasonal influenza trivalent vaccine.

(...)

''Influenza A H1N1 (2009) viruses characterised to date, in samples from the community, hospitalised patients and fatal cases in the United Kingdom, are antigenically homogeneous and similar to the vaccine virus A/California/7/2009.

(...)

''Genetically these H1N1 (2009) viruses have several amino acid substitutions relative to the vaccine virus but these do not affect the antigenicity of the virus and have also been seen in viruses from other parts of the world.

Source:http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/2010_12_17_GIP_surveillance/en/index.html


The data collected by WHO influenza surveillance network seems to have detected some genetic heterogeneity among H1N1 (2009) virus isolated from hospitalized and fatal cases samples in UK, even though the update did not specify if the mutation are in internal genes - thus affecting virulence - or in surface proteins.

The WHO said however that antigenic characterization of UK H1N1 (2009) virus so far has not demonstrated substantial divergence between circulating strain and the vaccine seeds, suggesting that trivalent seasonal vaccine should stimulate a protective immunity in recipients - or at least reduce the severity of illness.

In England there is a co-circulation of influenza H1N1 (2009) virus along with type B, this latter seen as cause of some of the severe cases detected so far.

For the piece of news, some indicate likely number of intensive care bed occupancy while others suggest the same number as actual.

I suggest that the current situation in UK is worth to be followed carefully but with a degree of skepticism when reading sensationalistic news articles.

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Swine flu strikes in Sandwell

TWENTY new cases of potentially lethal swine flu have been diagnosed in Sandwell during the latest outbreak of the disease.

Public health officials at Sandwell Primary Care Trust (PCT) have confirmed the number of new or probable cases of the virus in the borough.

Hospital Accident & Emergency departments have also been overwhelmed by patients seeking treatments for flu-like symptoms and infections during the Arctic blast.

The virus is highly infectious and 100,000 flu particles can be projected into the air with just one sneeze.

Dr Patrick Saunders, public health consultant in Sandwell, said: ?As with last year, most patients are experiencing mild illness not requiring hospital admission or any specialist treatment.

?Sandwell is well prepared for the influenza season but it is important that people do everything they can to reduce the incidence and spread of this infection.?

He added: ?Although levels of illness are currently within what we would normally expect for this time of the year, it is important to remind those people eligible for the seasonal flu immunisation to ensure they have their vaccine,? explained the specialist.

...

http://www.birminghammail.net/news/...swine-flu-strikes-in-sandwell-97319-27859566/

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Swine flu death toll rises to seven in Greater Manchester after two more die in Bury
December 21, 2010

...
A woman, from Bury, died at Rochdale Infirmary after being struck down with the H1N1 bug. NHS chiefs said she had underlying health problems.

A man, also from Bury, died around two weeks ago but tests have only just shown that the cause was swine flu. As previously reported in the M.E.N, a Manchester man, a woman from Bolton, two men from Oldham and a man from Rochdale have died after contracting swine flu in recent weeks

... continues at; http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereve...greater_manchester_after_two_more_die_in_bury

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 24 Deaths and 190 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Three die as cases of swine flu spread

Three adults died from swine flu in Leicester at the weekend in the city?s worst viral disease outbreak for ten years.

At least six children aged under five have also died from viral respiratory diseases in Leicester in the last three weeks.

Laboratory test results confirming the causes of the adult deaths are expected tomorrow.


No other details have been released.

...

Read more: http://www.metro.co.uk/news/851051-three-die-as-cases-of-swine-flu-spread#ixzz18kS91Mov

 

[CopitoSP]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 27 Deaths and +302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 27 Deaths and +302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

302 flu victims in intensive care

(UKPA) ? 16 minutes ago

More than 300 people are in intensive care with flu, Government figures have shown.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/uk...w9Q_QwkxNLcQNDGRw?docId=N0267721292944402924A

 

[CopitoSP]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Winter flu 'hits intensive care'

Experts are urging people to have the vaccine to protect them against flu viruses


Flu deaths reach 17 this winter

More than 300 people are in intensive care with flu, official figures reveal.

Latest data from the Department of Health for England show there have been 302 people in intensive care beds.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12052816

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Woman dies from swine flu at Infirmary
Date published: 21 December 2010

A woman has died from swine flu at the Rochdale Infirmary.

The patient, understood to have underlying health problems, was from Bury.

The woman is the second person to die from the flu virus at the Infirmary.

NHS Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale were unable to comment because the patient was not a Rochdale resident.

...

continues at;
http://www.rochdaleonline.co.uk/new.../50877/woman-dies-from-swine-flu-at-infirmary

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Swine flu death toll rises to seven in Greater Manchester
December 21, 2010

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A woman, from Bury, died at Rochdale Infirmary after being struck down with the H1N1 bug. NHS chiefs said she had underlying health problems.
Another two people have died from swine flu ? bringing the number of confirmed victims of the virus in Greater Manchester this winter to seven.

A woman, from Bury, died at Rochdale Infirmary after being struck down with the H1N1 bug. NHS chiefs said she had underlying health problems.

A man, also from Bury, died around two weeks ago but tests have only just shown that the cause was swine flu. As previously reported in the M.E.N, a Manchester man, a woman from Bolton, two men from Oldham and a man from Rochdale have died after contracting swine flu in recent weeks

http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereve...ath_toll_rises_to_seven_in_greater_manchester

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

A little of 2009 influenza history for UK, december 2009:

These graphs are from UK HPA, posted on its site last year spanning from the beginning of December 2009 to Christmas Eve.

As readers can see, 2009-2010 season started earlier than in all previous years due the pandemic influenza.

For comparison high level of influenza-like illness activity was experienced during 1999-2000 season and 2008-09 season.

Direct comparison with last year activity during December could result in wrong conclusion as the peak of incidence was earlier in the year.

See also this graph for baseline and epidemic threshold level of ILI for UK: (Jun 2009)

-
See also this excerpt from Dec. 2009 (with lower than previous years ILI activity) HPA bulletin:

Source: http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPAweb&HPAwebStandard/HPAweb_C/1259152420791?p=1231252394302

(...)

SEVERITY

Disease severity continues to be monitored. The disease is generally mild in most people so far, but is proving severe in a small minority of cases.

* Swine flu hospitalisations in England: 454 patients (currently hospitalised as of 8am on 23 December). The number of hospitalised patients is now declining.
* Deaths - the number of deaths related to swine flu in England as of 17 December is 203 (This figure represents the number of deaths in individuals with swine flu but does not represent the number of deaths that can be attributed to swine flu). There will be an updated deaths figure in the briefing on Thursday 7 January 2010.

(...)

-
------

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Just another piece of history of 2009 december influenza situation across EU/EFTA countries.

Source ECDC: http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/health..._Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_0900hrs.pdf

Table 1. Reported number of confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) cases admitted to hospitals and intensive care, by country, as of 23 December 2009, 9.00 CEST in EU and EFTA countries.

[Country - (date of report) - Number of cases currently hospitalised - Cumulative number of cases admitted in hospitals - Number of cases currently in intensive care - Cumulative number of cases admitted to intensive care]

1.
Austria (17.12.) - 172 ? ? ? ? ? ?
2.
Belgium (17.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
3.
Bulgaria (13.12) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
4.
Cyprus(23.11) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 6
5.
Czech Republic (16.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
6.
Denmark (16.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
7.
Estonia (16.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
8.
Finland (22.12.) - 10 ? ? - 5 ? ?
9.
France (21.12.) ? ? ? ? ? 221 ? 918
10.
Germany (11.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
11.
Greece (16.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
12.
Hungary (13.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
13.
Iceland (10.12.) ? 3 ? 180 ? 1 ? 20
14.
Ireland (16.12.) ? 152 ? 1015 ? 9 ? 84
15.
Italy (22.12.) ? ? - 832 ? ? ? 448
16.
Latvia (17.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
17.
Liechtenstein (17.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
18.
Lithuania (21.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
19.
Luxembourg (16.11.) ? ? ? ? ? 0 ? 0
20.
Malta (04.09.) ? ? - 46 ? ? ? 1
21.
Netherlands (18.12.) ? 50 ? 2124 ? 4 ? 203
22.
Norway (14.12.) ? 14 ? 1298 ? 5 ? 170
23.
Poland (15.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
24.
Portugal (13.12.) - 133 ? ? - 25 ? ?
25.
Romania (21.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
26.
Slovakia (22.12.) ? 51 ? 260 ? 18 ? 94
27.
Slovenia (17.12.) - 76 ? ? ? ? ? ?
28.
Spain (17.12.) ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
29.
Sweden (17.12.) ? 18 - 1169 ? ? ? ?
30.
Switzerland (17.12.) ? 23 - 345 ? ? ? 66
31.
United Kingdom* (17.12.) - 523 ? ? - 113 ? ?

Note: Data for the EU and EFTA countries correspond to the Ministry of Health or surveillance centre websites.

(?) denotes no information readily available in official sources.

* Data includes information for England only. Other cumulative hospitalisations are: Scotland (1423), Wales (433) and Northern Ireland (573).

Table 2. Reported number of new and cumulative confirmed fatal 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) cases in EU and EFTA countries, as 23 December 2009, 9.00 CEST, and in the rest of the world by country, as of 22 December 2009, 16.00 CEST.

[Country - Number of new fatal cases since previous national update - Cumulative number of fatal cases]

*
EU and EFTA countries
o
Austria ? ? 3
o
Belgium ? ? 17
o
Bulgaria ? ? 35
o
Cyprus ? ? 3
o
Czech Republic ? ? 38
o
Denmark 2 - 23
o
Estonia ? ? 7
o
Finland ? ? 36
o
France ? - 200*
o
Germany ? ? 119
o
Greece ? ? 51
o
Hungary ? ? 36
o
Iceland ? ? 2
o
Ireland ... ? 22
o
Italy 9 - 187
o
Latvia ? ? 24
o
Lithuania ? ? 14
o
Luxembourg ? ? 2
o
Malta ? ? 3
o
Netherlands ? ? 51
o
Norway ? ? 29
o
Poland 12 - 109
o
Portugal ? ? 52
o
Romania 3 ? 37
o
Slovakia 5 - 30
o
Slovenia ? ? 13
o
Spain ? ? 232
o
Sweden ? ? 20
o
Switzerland ? ? 9
o
United Kingdom ? ? 298
+
Total 31 ? 1702

 

[tetano]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Swine flu baby fights for life

A five-week-old baby is fighting for his life in hospital after contracting swine flu. Harvey Flannigan is on a life support machine after he was diagnosed with the H1N1 virus and bronchitis.

Parents Andrew Flannigan and Michelle Dyer are holding a bedside vigil at the Royal Manchester Children?s Hospital.

Left fearing the worst for their second child, the couple, from Manchester Road, Heaton Chapel, say Harvey is now showing signs of improvement.

Dad Andrew said: "On Tuesday, we were told that Harvey is 30 per cent better and the medication they?ve given him is working.

"He?s still on a ventilator but he?s now on a grade three rather than grade four, which means he was at death?s door.

"Once he gets to grade one he can come off the life support machine. We are so relieved and are now 100 per cent hopeful he will be okay.

"It?s very difficult particularly given this time of year and Harvey is just five weeks old ? he doesn?t deserve it," added Andrew, 29, who has two sons from a previous relationship, William and Niall, aged seven and four, and a three-year-old girl with Michelle called Amelia.

http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1402240_swine_flu_baby_fights_for_life

 

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

21 December 2010 Last updated at 12:03 ET

...

Government figures show that 302 beds are now occupied by flu patients. Last week 182 beds were being used.

It is not known how many of those patients have H1N1 "swine flu".

...

Flu patients are now using 9% of intensive care beds.

At the peak of last year's epidemic, 180 people were in critical care with confirmed or suspected flu, including swine flu.

Shadow Health Secretary Jon Healy said the government had made the "wrong judgement" in not having a autumn advertising campaign around vaccination.

...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12052816

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

21 December 2010 Last updated at 12:03 ET

...

Government figures show that 302 beds are now occupied by flu patients. Last week 182 beds were being used.

It is not known how many of those patients have H1N1 "swine flu".

...

Flu patients are now using 9% of intensive care beds.

At the peak of last year's epidemic, 180 people were in critical care with confirmed or suspected flu, including swine flu.

Shadow Health Secretary Jon Healy said the government had made the "wrong judgement" in not having a autumn advertising campaign around vaccination.

...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12052816

From the post above: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=383301&postcount=36

December 2009 ECDC update: http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/health..._Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_0900hrs.pdf

For the current week, United Kingdom* (17.12.2009) - Hospitalized patients: 523 - In ICU: 113

* Data includes information for England only. Other cumulative hospitalisations are: Scotland (1423), Wales (433) and Northern Ireland (573).

I appreciate a commentary by other users on the above data compared with current figures.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

From the post above: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=383301&postcount=36

December 2009 ECDC update: http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/health..._Influenza_AH1N1_Situation_Report_0900hrs.pdf

For the current week, United Kingdom* (17.12.2009) - Hospitalized patients: 523 - In ICU: 113

* Data includes information for England only. Other cumulative hospitalisations are: Scotland (1423), Wales (433) and Northern Ireland (573).

I appreciate a commentary by other users on the above data compared with current figures.

It seems to me for a good comparison we need more data; for instance:

- number of patients (= ??)
- number of fatalities (= 298 in december 2009)

A % means more to me than a number; same number can be high or low or average.

Furthermore: more hospitalisations and more ICU patients could mean doctors are taking the new H1N1 more seriously? IF there are more (%) that is.

More or less fatalities can be related to several things: virulence or also late treatment, or....

In other words: it is not easy to compare this year against last year, many different parameters?

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Re: UK: Reports of Approximately 30 Deaths and 302 Patients in intensive care (17 deaths confirmed by HPA as for Dec. 16 2010)

Epi-Curves for December 2009 are here: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=383289&postcount=35

The influenza activity during Dec. 2009 was below the expected level for a pandemic setting, and other season saw an higher incidence for ILI.

Despite this lower incidence the number of patients in need for hospital care was similar to current figure.

The differences between the two scenarios are:

-- a portion of population has immunity against this virus in 2010 through natural infection;

-- a small portion has in addition the vaccine induced immunity;

-- the elderly has less likelihood to get infected through natural immunity achieved in earlier stages of life.

We should have a more precise picture of the actual portion of population without protective immunity, ie those who escaped flu pandemic last year.

We should seek for information about clinical history of current patients: are they previously affected by H1N1 in 2009?, for example.