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Ebola outbreak projected to surge as response repeats mistakes of Wuhan
Exclusive: Leaked projections reveal Uganda’s current epidemic is on track to become one of the deadliest within six months
By Sarah Newey,
GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY CORRESPONDENT and
Telegraph Reporters
8 November 2022 • 12:15pm
Uganda’s Ebola outbreak is expected to become one of the deadliest within six months, according to leaked government projections which point to 1,200 cases and 500 fatalities by late April.
The modelling, drawn up by the Ugandan Ministry of Health, estimates that 250 people will die by January in the spiralling epidemic, rising to 499 by the spring.
It comes amid signs that the mistakes of secrecy and prevarication which characterised the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan are being repeated in Uganda.
At least 136 cases and 53 deaths have been confirmed since the hemorrhagic fever was detected in mid September. The disease has spread across eight districts, including the capital Kampala – an international hub which is home to roughly two million people.
Insiders say a “toxic” atmosphere has developed. Relations between the authoritarian government and international agencies on the ground are tense, while many local officials have been alienated and feel unable to raise issues or challenge their superiors.
...
Best-case scenario ‘has already passed’
However, sources close to the response in Uganda said they would not be surprised if the death toll swells to 500, as most people infected are currently being diagnosed only after five days of symptoms.
“This is one of the single biggest issues right now in this outbreak [and] means they may have already spread it, and affects their chance of survival,” said one, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution.
...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...projected-kill-500-response-repeats-mistakes/
Exclusive: Leaked projections reveal Uganda’s current epidemic is on track to become one of the deadliest within six months
By Sarah Newey,
GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY CORRESPONDENT and
Telegraph Reporters
8 November 2022 • 12:15pm
Uganda’s Ebola outbreak is expected to become one of the deadliest within six months, according to leaked government projections which point to 1,200 cases and 500 fatalities by late April.
The modelling, drawn up by the Ugandan Ministry of Health, estimates that 250 people will die by January in the spiralling epidemic, rising to 499 by the spring.
It comes amid signs that the mistakes of secrecy and prevarication which characterised the early days of the coronavirus pandemic in Wuhan are being repeated in Uganda.
At least 136 cases and 53 deaths have been confirmed since the hemorrhagic fever was detected in mid September. The disease has spread across eight districts, including the capital Kampala – an international hub which is home to roughly two million people.
Insiders say a “toxic” atmosphere has developed. Relations between the authoritarian government and international agencies on the ground are tense, while many local officials have been alienated and feel unable to raise issues or challenge their superiors.
...
Best-case scenario ‘has already passed’
However, sources close to the response in Uganda said they would not be surprised if the death toll swells to 500, as most people infected are currently being diagnosed only after five days of symptoms.
“This is one of the single biggest issues right now in this outbreak [and] means they may have already spread it, and affects their chance of survival,” said one, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of retribution.
...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...projected-kill-500-response-repeats-mistakes/