Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

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<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full><TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog



</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Last Updated: 1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010 ? Last Comment: 3:40 PM GMT on July 20, 2010


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</TD><TD class=hCenter>97L a threat to become a tropical depression on Wednesday</TD><TD class=hRight>

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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:31 PM GMT on July 20, 2010</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the east coast of Puerto Rico has become more organized overnight and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression as early as Wednesday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra and Vieques islands over the past day (Figure 1), and all of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today. The storm could bring an additional 3 - 6 inches of rain to the islands over the next two days. The upper level low centered a few hundred miles north of the Dominican Republic is no longer bringing high levels of wind shear to 97L; wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which may allow 97L to continue to develop today. Satellite images of 97L show a moderate area of disorganized thunderstorms, but no signs of a surface circulation, no low-level spiral banding, and no upper-level outflow. There is a large amount of dry air to the northwest of Puerto Rico that will interfere with development of 97L. Surface observations show only light winds over Puerto Rico, with no signs of a surface circulation. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L this afternoon, if necessary.

Figure 1. Total radar-estimated rainfall from Invest 97L.

<B><BIG>Forecast for 97L</B></BIG>
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of flooding to the Dominican Republic today and Wednesday, and to Haiti on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will begin moving into eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and South Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive as early as Thursday night. We do have several models developing 97L into a tropical depression or tropical storm. The GFS and HWRF both take 97L to tropical storm status over the Bahamas by Thursday, with the storm then tracking over South Florida on Friday and entering the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The NOGAPS is similar, but portrays a weaker system. All of these models foresee a threat to the oil spill region by Saturday night or Sunday, with the storm making a second landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana. One factor potentially aiding the storm will be the Madden-Julian oscillation, which currently favors upward motion over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased. Also in favor of development are the warm ocean temperatures of 29?C. The SHIPS model predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over the next 4 - 5 days, and I believe the primary detriment to development of 97L over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. NHC is giving 97L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 60% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development today or on Wednesday is unlikely, due to the dry air over the Bahamas, and I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 10%. There is a better chance that 97L could attain hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps 20%. These probabilities will depend heavily upon how long 97L (or Bonnie) spends over land or interacting with land over the next four days, which is very uncertain.

.../

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1547



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Re: 97L a threat to become a tropical depression on Wednesday

Re: 97L a threat to become a tropical depression on Wednesday

View Tropical Weather View Hurricane Archive

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_ensmodel.html#a_topad

 

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Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

TD 3 growing more organized

Updated: 8:55 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur.

TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

<B><BIG>Track Forecast for TD 3</B></BIG>

The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

<B><BIG>Intensity Forecast for TD 3</B></BIG>
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

.../

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

 

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Re: Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

Re: Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

View Tropical Weather View Hurricane Archive

View Tropical Weather View Hurricane Archive

View Tropical Weather View Hurricane Archive

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201003_alerts.html#a_topad

 

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Re: Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

Re: Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

Governor Jindal Declares State of Emergency for Tropical Depression Three

BATON ROUGE (July 22, 2010) - Today, Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency for the State of Louisiana in preparation for Tropical Depression Three, which if upgraded, would become Tropical Storm Bonnie.


EXECUTIVE PROCLAMATION ON STATE OF EMERGENCY- TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE
WHEREAS,
the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., confers upon the Governor of the State of Louisiana emergency powers to deal with emergencies and disasters, including those caused by fire, flood, earthquake or other natural or man-made causes, in order to ensure that preparations of this state will be adequate to deal with such emergencies or disasters and to preserve the lives and property of the people of the state of Louisiana;

WHEREAS,
when the Governor determines that a disaster or emergency has occurred, or the threat thereof is imminent, R.S. 29:724(B)(1) empowers him to declare a state of emergency by executive order or proclamation, or both;

WHEREAS,
a statewide declaration of emergency, Proclamation No. 20 BJ 2010, was issued on April 29, 2010, and extended by subsequent proclamations 37 BJ 2010 on May 29, 2010 and 43 BJ 2010 on June 28, 2010, in response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill; and on April 29, 2010, the Deepwater Horizon event was designated a Spill of National Significance (SONS) by the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security;

WHEREAS,
Tropical Depression Three, which if upgraded will become Tropical Storm Bonnie, is projected to enter the area of response activities surrounding the Deepwater Horizon site located approximately forty-eight (48) miles off the southeastern coastline of Louisiana, and this response involves hundreds of maritime vessels and thousands of United States Coast Guard personnel, British Petroleum personnel and their contractors on-land and off-shore;

WHEREAS,
Tropical Depression Three is expected to impact the coastal parishes of Louisiana with possible hurricane strength winds, wave surges, high tides, torrential rain and tornado activity. The storm is expected to make impact with the Louisiana coast during the night of Friday, July 23rd or morning of Saturday, July 24th, 2010, with the expectation that tropical or hurricane force winds will reach the Louisiana coast prior to landfall;

WHEREAS,
the forecast from the National Weather Service indicates that the coastal parishes of Louisiana will be subjected to tropical force or hurricane conditions to such a degree that life and property will be placed in jeopardy;

WHEREAS,
the coastal parishes of Louisiana are currently under parish declarations of Emergency for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and will continue to operate under those declarations for the approaching Tropical Depression Three;

WHEREAS,
a separate declaration of emergency is necessary to provide the authority for state government to assist local governments as requested, to allow state agencies to thoroughly prepare for any eventuality and to allow federal agencies and federal resources to be deployed if necessary; and

WHEREAS,
a declaration that a state of emergency exists on July 22, 2010, due to the predicted impact of Tropical Depression Three along the Louisiana coast which threatens the safety and security of those citizens, is appropriate given the threatened tropical storm and hurricane conditions and complicating factors created by the oil spill;

NOW THEREFORE I, BOBBY JINDAL, Governor of the State of Louisiana, by virtue of the authority vested by the Constitution and laws of the State of Louisiana, do hereby order and direct as follows:

• SECTION 1: Pursuant to the Louisiana Homeland Security and Emergency Assistance and Disaster Act, R.S. 29:721, et seq., a separate state of emergency is declared to exist in the State of Louisiana as a result of forecasted tropical storm or hurricane activity which, in addition to the Deepwater Horizon Spill of National Significance, has created emergency conditions that threaten the lives and property of the citizens of the State.
• SECTION 2: The Director of the Governor?s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness is hereby authorized to undertake any activity authorized by law which he deems necessary and appropriate in response to this declaration;
• SECTION 3: The state of emergency extends from July 22, 2010 through August 21, 2010, unless terminated sooner.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have set my hand officially and caused to be affixed the Great Seal of Louisiana, at the Capitol, in the city of Baton Rouge, on this 22nd day of July, 2010.


/S/Bobby Jindal
GOVERNOR OF LOUISIANA
ATTEST BY THE GOVERNOR


/S/Jay Dardenne
SECRETARY OF STATE

http://emergency.louisiana.gov/Releases/07222010-depression.html

 

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Re: Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

Re: Tropical depression 3 growing more organized

PRESS RELEASE

Governor Jindal Says State Preparing for Tropical Storm Bonnie

BATON ROUGE (July 22, 2010) - Following a meeting of the state?s Unified Command Group (UCG), Governor Bobby Jindal held a press conference to outline the state?s preparations in response to Tropical Storm Bonnie. Earlier today, Governor Jindal issued an emergency declaration, which will help speed state assistance to parishes in need of supplemental response efforts.

Governor Jindal said, ?We want to urge everyone to remain vigilant and monitor their local weather reports throughout the weekend. We encourage everyone to get their emergency supply kits ready and update their evacuation plans. It?s hurricane season and I urge everyone to visit www.GetAGameplan.org right away to make a game plan for their family.
?Business owners should also review their business continuity plans to ensure they can keep contact with their employees and secure vital records. Officials are predicting an above average hurricane season so it?s imperative to get prepared now, even if this particular storm does not significantly build in intensity or end up targeting Louisiana.

?Of course, we are taking the oil spill response measures into account as we are implementing hurricane response plans. For example, the state continues to work with the federal government and BP to adjust their evacuation plans in the event of a storm. We have also adjusted our emergency planning to take into account the complicating factors caused by the oil spill. This includes plans to move response workers and heavy equipment out of the way in the event that we would have to issue a mass evacuation order ? which does not seem likely for this storm at this point.

?This morning, the state and the federal Unified Command for the Deepwater Horizon spill conducted a joint tabletop exercise at GOHSEP to prepare for possible storm response operations. GOHSEP also conducted conference calls with coastal parishes and state agencies to coordinate preparedness efforts this afternoon. GOHSEP also sent one of their mobile command units to Calcasieu Parish to help assist them in any response efforts to the storm, as needed.

?A mandatory evacuation is not expected at this time. However, parishes could call for voluntary evacuations for low-lying areas or for citizens who live in mobile homes that may be affected by high winds or storm surge.

These voluntary evacuations could be called by parishes as early as late Friday or Saturday, depending on when coastal areas are expected to experience tropical storm force winds.?

At this time, the following parishes have already made emergency declarations: Lafourche, Acadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, St. Mary, and Vermillion.


STATE AGENCY PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS) The Department of Children and Family Services (DCFS) is already on a heightened alert due to the oil spill, and their emergency shelters have been on alert since early May, a month before hurricane season began. They have already conducted multiple readiness and supply checks throughout the summer as part of everyday emergency preparations. Today ? DCFS also put their contractors who provide wrap-around services for shelters on alert and began a market-survey to identify available resources that may be needed.

DCFS?s current shelter capacity is 13,770 ? including state-run and non-state-run Critical Transportation Needs Shelters, Medical Special Needs and a sex offender shelter. Out of state shelter capacity is 29,000 and includes shelter space in Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, and Georgia.


DEPARTMENT OF WILDLIFE AND FISHERIES (LDWF)
The Department of Wildlife and Fisheries will move the Fort Jackson Bird Rehabilitation Center staff and supplies to a new site in Hammond, which will protect staff and those birds that are not ready to be released. LDWF is also preparing to transition from oil reconnaissance missions and fisheries monitoring efforts ? which will not be possible in storm conditions ? to standby for response efforts. Every agent in the Enforcement Division of LDWF is on alert at this time to respond to any potential tropical storm.

Agents in coastal areas are preparing their equipment for transport to safer areas of the state. Agents would be staged at a strategic central location that would be out of harm's way 24 hours in advance of landfall.

The Forward Mobile Command Center was brought back to Baton Rouge from the oil spill operating area and the Forward Mobile Command Center has been prepped and is ready to roll out for tropical storm deployment to serve as a coordination headquarters for possible search and rescue missions. The Enforcement Division has over 200 agents and boats to use in search and rescue operations after the storm ? if needed.


DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND DEVELOPMENT (DOTD)
DOTD is in contact with BP and will work with them to assess potential evacuation routes and make sure these routes are clear. DOTD is also working with the coordinators of Island Aid and are ready to respond if they need to clear routes for evacuation ? should one be ordered.


LOUISIANA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (LDVA)
The Southeast LA Veterans Home in Reserve and the Southwest Veterans Home in Jennings are on alert because both of these facilities are located South of I-10. During the next 24 hours, both facilities will be conducting patient prep in anticipation of evacuation ? should one be needed. Prep includes packing of critical patient items, evaluation of patient condition and transportation planning.


DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (DEQ)
Due to the BP spill, DEQ teams will be assessing the storm-impacted areas for possible oil-related contamination. Emergency Response Teams are on standby to provide a rapid response and environmental assessments in the event an environmental threat or issue develops.


DIVISION OF ADMINISTRATION (DOA)
The Commissioner of Administration, as part of the Unified Command Group, will work in consultation with GOHSEP and parish officials to make timely determinations regarding possible closures to state government offices and facilities.


DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HOSPITALS (DHH)
DHH alerted about 70 vendors who work with the state on providing everything from baby formula and beds to refrigerated trucks and bottled water to ensure they have adequate supplies and are ready to meet their contracts. DHH is also assessing availability of ambulances and worked with BP to ensure they will release ambulances from their contracts back to the state to mobilize medical evacuations and be in first-responder statuses as needed. BP assured the state any needed ambulances will be released. DHH will also turn on ambulance staging areas if and when the decision is made that a medical evacuation makes sense ? which is not expected at this time.


LOUISIANA NATIONAL GUARD (LANG)
The Louisiana National Guard?s current oil spill response forces are positioned in coastal areas and prepared to transition to emergency operations as weather conditions dictate. LANG is also alerting additional personnel and preparing equipment as called for in the existing hurricane response plans to provide evacuation, security, search and rescue, engineering, logistics, and commodity distribution support, as needed in storm response efforts.


OFFICE OF JUVENILLE JUSTICE (OJJ)
The Bridge City Center for Youth near New Orleans will evacuate youth to the Jetson Center for Youth in Baker if necessary. Detention centers in south Louisiana are on alert and OJJ will evacuate youth in custody to safer locations inland if it becomes necessary.


OFFICE OF COASTAL PROTECTION AND RESTORATION (OCPR)
OCPR will coordinate with the Army Corps of Engineers as well as area levee and conservation districts to monitor rising water levels to determine appropriate times to close flood and navigation gates on area waterways. Notification of all closures will be sent to the public through this JIC, as needed. OCPR will also coordinate with levee districts and parish EOCs to monitor water levels on area levee systems to determine if additional assets are needed for potential flood fighting from elevated tides, storm surges or rainfall.


DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS (DOC)
DOC is making contact with parish and local jails to assist them should they decide to evacuate. They will also be assisting Orleans with moving around 400 to 600 inmates to Angola as a precautionary measure in advance of the storm.


LOUISIANA WORKFORCE COMMISSION (LWC)
If Critical Transportation Needs Shelters and Medical Special Needs Shelters are activated, the Louisiana Workforce Commission is responsible for mass feedings for those housed at such shelters. The LWC team that coordinates the shelter feeding effort met yesterday to outline duties in the coming days if their response is needed. Vendors contracted to provide food for the feedings have been put on alert and are ready to respond as needed.


STAY INFORMED/BE PREPARED
Throughout this storm event, public information will be released through GOHSEP and the state Joint Information Center. Additionally, in the event of a major evacuation in the state, which is not expected at this time, the Louisiana Emergency Alert System will broadcast evacuation information on all participating radio/TV stations for affected areas. A list of hurricane supplies, evacuation information and other critical information can be found on the www.getagameplan.org<HTTP: www.getagameplan.org> website.




Preparedness kits include:

• A three to five day supply of water (one gallon per person per day) and food that won't spoil
• One change of clothing and footwear per person, and one blanket or sleeping bag per person
• A first aid kit that includes prescription medications
• Emergency tools including a battery-powered radio, flashlight and plenty of extra batteries
• An extra set of car keys and a credit card, cash or traveler's checks
• Special items for infants, elderly or disabled family members
• And, important family documents in a waterproof container

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http://emergency.louisiana.gov/Releases/07222010-preparing.html​

 

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Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

By JUAN McCARTNEY Associated Press Writer ? 2010 The Associated Press
<ABBR class=updated title=2010-07-23T02:16:00Z>July 22, 2010, 9:16PM</ABBR>

NASSAU, Bahamas ? Tropical Storm Bonnie steamed through the central Bahamas on Thursday night while tracking a course that could take it over the site of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Rain and lightning raked the low-lying Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas, and forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm could reach the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday.

On Thursday evening, the center said Bonnie had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), and was centered about 165 miles (265 kilometers) southeast of the Bahamian capital of Nassau. It already had caused flooding in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Capt. Stephen Russell, director of the Bahamian National Emergency Management Agency, said there were no reports of major damage, flooding or injuries on islands in the southeastern and central Bahamas already passed by the storm. The storm wasn't yet clear of the most heavily populated islands in the northeast, including New Providence and Grand Bahama.

"We are advising everyone to remain vigilant throughout the night and early morning when the storm exits the Bahamas," Russell said.

A broken oil well has spewed somewhere between 94 million and 184 million gallons into the Gulf before a cap could be attached. The crisis ? the biggest offshore oil spill in U.S. history ? unfolded after the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20, killing 11 workers.

Some experts worry the hurricane season could worsen environmental damage from the spill, with powerful winds and large waves pushing oil deeper into estuaries and wetlands and also depositing more of the pungent, sticky mess on beaches.

As the storm advanced Thursday, people stocked up on water and food in the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos, island chains that are well-accustomed to rough weather. Many businesses remained open, but schools were already closed for the summer.

Shannelle Lightbourne, 27, shopped at a market in the island of Providenciales in Turks and Caicos after hearing warnings that it would rain heavily.

"I am stocking up what I can," she said. "I may not be able to leave my house."

Donna Musgrove, a businesswoman in Providenciales, said some streets were flooded. "It's raining from one end of the island to the other," she said. "The skies are completely dark."

The storm did not pose a threat to tourist resorts in the islands.

Tourist Ezra Uzzel, 45, of North Carolina, said he would not cut short his two-week vacation in the Turks and Caicos.

"This if our third day, and if the reports are right, by the weekend we should have good weather again," he said.

Residents in the southeastern Bahamas endured heavy rains and copious lightning, but no damages or injuries had been reported. Officials with the Emergency Operations Center said they would travel to the area with basic supplies as soon as the weather improved.

Julius Bonaby, 47, of Bahamas' Crooked Island, said he went to the grocery store early Thursday and spent most of the day listening to radio weather reports with his wife and two children.

"There's a lot of wind," he said. "We're hoping it'll pass over."

A tropical storm warning was issued for the central and northwestern Bahamas, for Florida's east coast south of Golden Beach and also along Florida's west coast northward to Bonita Beach.

The system was expected bring heavy winds and rains to the Florida Keys in the next few days, but emergency officials said they were not planning any mandatory evacuations since they did not expect a major storm surge.

As a precaution, storm shelters will open for tourists and residents who live on boats or have special needs.

U.S. forecasters said slow strengthening of the storm was possible during the next 48 hours.

In the Dominican Republic, where roughly 1,500 people were evacuated, rice fields were destroyed and 14 communities left isolated after bridges collapsed. A 14-year-old boy died in Puerto Rico on Sunday after drowning in a swollen river.

Haiti's Department of Civil Protection reported minor flooding in the northern Artibonite region but no injuries or major damage.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/top/all/7121004.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

<TABLE class=full cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=full>Bonnie makes landfall in South Florida



</TD><TD></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Updated: 2:58 PM GMT on July 23, 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie is making landfall in South Florida south of Miami as a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Miami radar shows that Bonnie is a relatively dry storm--maximum rainfall amounts from the storm have been just 2 - 3 inches over the waters to the east of Miami. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bonnie is embedded in a large area of dry air, thanks to an upper level low to the west over the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past twelve hours, Bonnie has sped up, and this has brought the storm closer to the upper level low. The upper level low is now bringing high levels of wind shear--about 20 knots--to the tropical storm. Satellite images of Bonnie show that the storm is being stretched into an oval shape by the strong steering flow, and this distortion is inhibiting intensification. Bonnie is a small storm, and is only affecting a limited area of South Florida with strong winds and heavy rain. Surface observations in the Bahamas and South Florida showed a number of stations with winds in the 30 - 46 mph range this morning, including Fowey Rocks, which had sustatined winds of 46 mph, gusting to 53 mph, at 10:45 am EDT.

Figure 1. Radar image of Bonnie at landfall from the Miami radar.

<B><BIG>Track Forecast for Bonnie</B></BIG>
Bonnie has sped up more than the models expected, but they are in pretty good agreement about a continued track to the west-northwest to northwest with a landfall between Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) are very similar to the two previous sets of runs, and this degree of consistency gives me confidence that Bonnie will stay within the cone of uncertainty depicted on the track forecast images. The projected track will take Bonnie over the oil spill region, and the storm's strong east to southeasterly winds will begin to affect the oil slick on Saturday morning. These winds, coupled with a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet, will result in a substantial area of the Louisiana marshlands getting oiled. The latest oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA (Figure 2) predict potential oil impacts along a 150-mile stretch of Louisiana coast on Sunday. Given Bonnie's rapid forward speed, small size, and expected landfall intensity of 50 mph or less, oil impacts on the Louisiana coast will be similar to or less than what was experienced during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days.

Figure 2. Oil Trajectory forecast for Sunday for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA.

<B><BIG>Intensity Forecast for Bonnie</B></BIG>
The primary detriment to development of Bonnie will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to Bonnie, it will bring high wind shear of about 20 knots to the storm. This will allow for only slow intensification, and Bonnie is unlikely to intensify to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. This is the solution of the major global models such as the GFDL, HWRF, GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS. However, if the upper-level low weakens or pulls away from Bonnie, less shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially allowing Bonnie to intensify to a strong tropical storm with 60 - 65 mph winds. The more statistically based intensity models--SHIPS and LGEM--foresee this sort of scenario. I'll go with the lower intensity scenario, since Bonnie is such a small storm and will be more sensitive than usual to hostile wind shear and dry air. I give Bonnie a 10% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of Bonnie being a hurricane at 8 pm Saturday at 9% (11am advisory.)

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher, from the 11am EDT advisory :

Buras, LA 41%
New Orleans 32%
Mobile, AL 37%
Pensacola, FL 31%

.../
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

<TABLE class=entry><TBODY><TR><TD class=label>Event:</TD><TD class=headline>Tropical Storm Wind Warning</TD></TR><TR><TD class=label>Alert:</TD><TD class=description>

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

.AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. .

WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...TANGIPAHOA...ST. TAMMANY... ASSUMPTION...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...UPPER LAFOURCHE...ST. CHARLES...UPPER JEFFERSON...ORLEANS...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...LOWER TERREBONNE...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...HANCOCK...HARRISON AND JACKSON. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...

AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4N...LONGITUDE 80.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LA...OR ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MS. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH. .

SITUATION OVERVIEW...

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR INLAND LOCATIONS...THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER. FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS...STORM SURGE IMPACTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS. FOR MARINE LOCATIONS...THE IMPACTS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. HEAVY RAIN...TORNADOES...AND WATERSPOUTS CAN ACCOMPANY TROPICAL STORMS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTS. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION... PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. &&

.../


</PRE>

http://www.weather.gov/alerts-beta/...IXTropicalStormWindWarningLIX20100725120000MS


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[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

Tropical Storm Bonnie leads Coast Guard to issue mariner warnings, restrictions

Published: Friday, July 23, 2010, 11:35 AM Updated: Friday, July 23, 2010, 11:38 AM


Ramon Antonio Vargas, The Times-Picayune

The U.S. Coast Guard on Friday urged boaters to immediately begin securing their crafts as Tropical Storm Bonnie bears down on the Gulf Coast.

Additionally, officials placed restrictions on all vessels navigating in the ports of New Orleans and Morgan City through the weekend.
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High seas, heavy rains and damaging winds may accompany the weak system, which is swirling down a path that could bring it ashore at the mouth of the Mississippi River by 1 a.m. Sunday.

Coast Guard Public Affairs Specialist Renee Aiello issued a statement warning mariners that Bonnie's conditions may be felt in an area hundreds of miles wide, affecting boats and ships even outside of the direct path of the storm.

Aiello also asked people to refrain from heading out to the water on boats and to stay off the beaches, as the strong waves and rip currents expected from Bonnie would imperil even strong swimmers. Craft owners should contact their local marinas to ask advice about securing their vessels. Officials warned against entering any storm-damaged areas without permission from authorities or boarding partially sunken boats without help from professionals.

"A tropical system does not have to be a hurricane to be potentially dangerous," she warned. "The effects ... can be felt well in advance of the storm itself and can prevent the safe completion of preparations."

Meanwhile, all self-propelled oceangoing vessels weighing more than 500 gross tons and their barges must declare their intention to depart or remain in either the ports of New Orleans and Morgan City. Any of those vessels remaining in the ports must receive approval from officials by Saturday morning. Mariners were cautioned to either hunker down or move their crafts to prevent damaging nearby vessels or structures.

The Coast Guard said it will increase the numbers of its harbor patrols in order to "advise vessel and facility operators of any conditions that require immediate action or correction."

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2010/07/coast_guard_issues_mariner_war.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

July 23, 2010

STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED FOR GULF COAST
National Guard called to aid emergency response​

A State of Emergency has been declared for the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a tropical weather system moves toward the state. Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant, in consultation with Governor Haley Barbour, ordered the State of Emergency as well as the activation of the Mississippi National Guard to aid local officials with emergency response.
Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties may be affected by the storm.

The State of Emergency order allows emergency responders to efficiently utilize resources and receive state aid to respond to the emergency situation.

?While the tropical system lacks the strength of a hurricane, it?s a storm that will probably have some impact on our coast, and we must continue to monitor the impact of the storm on the oil in the Gulf of Mexico,?

Governor Barbour said. ?Residents can expect to see strong winds, heavy rain and possible storm surge as expected with any tropical disturbance; however this storm poses a unique challenge with the oil spill. We may see oil come onshore and impact areas that have been previously unaffected by the spill. We have state agencies ready to respond to any storm or oil damage as quickly as possible.?

Governor Barbour is in California meeting with business executives but is prepared to return quickly if needed.

The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, the Departments of Environmental Quality and Marine Resources and local emergency officials are preparing for the storm and its potential impact on the oil spill.

Read the State of Emergency and the Executive Order here.

http://www.governorbarbour.com/news/2010/jul/7.23.10barbourdeclaresstateofemergencyoncoast.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical Storm Bonnie moving toward oil spill

Tropical Depression BONNIE Public Advisory

000
wtnt33 knhc 241136
tcpat3
bulletin
tropical depression bonnie intermediate advisory number 8a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl al032010
700 am cdt sat jul 24 2010

...bonnie could degenerate into an area of low pressure...warnings
will likely be discontinued later this morning...


Summary of 700 am cdt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...27.6n 86.1w
about 215 mi...345 km ese of the mouth of the mississippi river
about 160 mi...260 km ssw of apalachicola florida
maximum sustained winds...30 mph...50 km/hr
present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 18 mph...32 km/hr
minimum central pressure...1013 mb...29.91 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None

summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* destin florida to morgan city louisiana...including lake
pontchartrain

the tropical storm warning will likely be discontinued later this
morning.

For storm information specific to your area including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by
your local national weather service forecast office.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 700 am cdt...1200 utc...the center of tropical depression bonnie
was located near latitude 27.6 north...longitude 86.1 west. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32
km/hr. A gradual decrease in forward speed is expected today with
little change in the direction of motion. On this track...the
center of bonnie is forecast to approach the northern gulf coast
tonight.

Satellite images and data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that
bonnie has become less organized. Maximum sustained winds have
decreased to are near 30 mph...50 km/hr...with higher gusts.
Strengthening is becoming less likely.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an air force
hurricane hunter aircraft is 1013 mb...29.91 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm force winds mainly in squalls could reach
portions of the northern gulf coast later today.

Rainfall...bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over portions of southern
louisiana...southern alabama...southern mississippi...and the far
western florida panhandle...with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 3 inches.

Storm surge...storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to
3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast near and to the
right of where the center makes landfall on the northern gulf
coast.


Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory...1000 am cdt.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/221459.shtml