tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Transbound Emerg Dis
. 2020 May 30.
doi: 10.1111/tbed.13656. Online ahead of print.
Estimation of the Serial Interval and Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and Three Other Countries: A Data-Driven Analysis in the Early Phase of the Outbreak
Mohammad Aghaali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Goodarz Kolifarhood[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Roya Nikbakht[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hossein Mozafar Saadati[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported from China, and on February 19, 2020, the first case was confirmed in Qom, Iran. The basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) of infection is variable in different populations and periods. The present study aimed to estimate the R[SUB]0[/SUB] of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran and compare it with other countries. For estimation of the serial interval, we used data of the 51 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their 318 close contacts in the Qom, Iran. The daily number of confirmed cases in the early phase of the outbreak and estimated serial interval were used for R[SUB]0[/SUB] estimation. We used the time-varying method as a method with the least bias to estimate R[SUB]0[/SUB] in Qom, Iran, China, Italy, and South Korea. The serial interval was estimated with gamma distribution, mean of 4.55 days and a standard deviation of 3.30 days for the COVID-19 epidemic based on Qom data. The number of R[SUB]0[/SUB] in the present study was estimated to be between 2 and 3 in Qom. Of the four countries studied, the lowest R[SUB]0[/SUB] was estimated for South Korea (1.5-2) and the highest for Iran (4-5). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that R[SUB]0[/SUB] is sensitive to the applied mean generation time. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the current study is the first to estimate R[SUB]0[/SUB] number in Qom. To control the epidemic, the number of reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the contact rate, decreasing transmission probability and decreasing the duration of the infectious period.
Keywords: Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Coronavirus Infections; Disease Outbreaks; Pandemics.
. 2020 May 30.
doi: 10.1111/tbed.13656. Online ahead of print.
Estimation of the Serial Interval and Basic Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran, and Three Other Countries: A Data-Driven Analysis in the Early Phase of the Outbreak
Mohammad Aghaali[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Goodarz Kolifarhood[SUP] 2 3 [/SUP], Roya Nikbakht[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Hossein Mozafar Saadati[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari[SUP] 5 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32473049
- DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13656
Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 was first reported from China, and on February 19, 2020, the first case was confirmed in Qom, Iran. The basic reproduction number (R[SUB]0[/SUB] ) of infection is variable in different populations and periods. The present study aimed to estimate the R[SUB]0[/SUB] of COVID-19 in Qom, Iran and compare it with other countries. For estimation of the serial interval, we used data of the 51 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and their 318 close contacts in the Qom, Iran. The daily number of confirmed cases in the early phase of the outbreak and estimated serial interval were used for R[SUB]0[/SUB] estimation. We used the time-varying method as a method with the least bias to estimate R[SUB]0[/SUB] in Qom, Iran, China, Italy, and South Korea. The serial interval was estimated with gamma distribution, mean of 4.55 days and a standard deviation of 3.30 days for the COVID-19 epidemic based on Qom data. The number of R[SUB]0[/SUB] in the present study was estimated to be between 2 and 3 in Qom. Of the four countries studied, the lowest R[SUB]0[/SUB] was estimated for South Korea (1.5-2) and the highest for Iran (4-5). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that R[SUB]0[/SUB] is sensitive to the applied mean generation time. To the best of the authors' knowledge, the current study is the first to estimate R[SUB]0[/SUB] number in Qom. To control the epidemic, the number of reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the contact rate, decreasing transmission probability and decreasing the duration of the infectious period.
Keywords: Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Coronavirus Infections; Disease Outbreaks; Pandemics.