Tomas is now moving northeastward over the open Atlantic, posing no threat to land

[Pathfinder]

Hurricane TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 302201
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
600 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...OBSERVATIONS FROM ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS
STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 61.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM ST. LUCIA AND ST.
VINCENT THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST.
LUCIA. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON ST. LUCIA AND ARE ALSO
LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN OTHER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
TOMAS MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ON THE OTHER ISLANDS WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITHIN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/302201.shtml

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Hurricane Tomas - Observation from St. Lucia indicate that Tomas has strengthened

Re: Hurricane Tomas - Observation from St. Lucia indicate that Tomas has strengthened

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Select a Future Forecast Time Below:
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 hours Loop


Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp





Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/220015.shtml?tswind120#contents

Surface Wind Field

Click image to zoom in ? Download GIS data




Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/220015.shtml?radii#contents

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Hurricane Tomas - Observation from St. Lucia indicate that Tomas has strengthened

Re: Hurricane Tomas - Observation from St. Lucia indicate that Tomas has strengthened

Hurricane TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310246
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS STILL OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 62.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA AT MIDNIGHT AST.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A WIND GUST TO 53
MPH...85 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON MARTINIQUE. A WIND GUST TO 49
MPH...80 KM/HR...WAS REPORTED ON BARBADOS WITHIN A RAINBAND WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL OCCURRING ON THE
ISLANDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.

STORM SURGE...LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...BUT WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/310246.shtml



Puerto Rico Sector (IR Ch 4, Mercator Projection)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/pr1.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Hurricane Tomas weakens slightly - No coastal watches or warnings in effect

Hurricane Tomas weakens slightly - No coastal watches or warnings in effect

Hurricane TOMAS Public Advisory

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF BARBADOS...FRANCE...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON MONDAY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TOMAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

NNNN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/311443.shtml<!-- Set from archive.pl for LANA crossing 140W --><!-- END OF CONTENT -->

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Hurricane Tomas weakens slightly - No coastal watches or warnings in effect

Re: Hurricane Tomas weakens slightly - No coastal watches or warnings in effect

Arnold Henry Autobiography's Photos - Hurricane Tomas - The Aftermath in St. Lucia




More photos: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?p...pid=5778499&id=123712035193&fbid=446150495193


Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Tomas blamed for 14 deaths in St Lucia

CASTRIES, St Lucia, Monday November 1, 2010 ? At least 14 people have been confirmed dead in St Lucia as a result of Hurricane Tomas, but with people still buried and a community still cut off from the rest of the country, there are fears the death toll could rise.

The exact cause of the deaths was not revealed by Prime Minister Stephenson King but most of them occurred in the southern town of Soufri?re which is currently inaccessible.

Prime Minister King, who conducted an aerial survey of Tomas' damage to his country, said Soufri?re was devastated.

?Everyone is locked in and no one can leave or get in by road or by phone so there are persons who need help but cannot be reached,? he said. ?It?s not just a question of clearing these roads because there are sections of the network that have completely disappeared so that we are just going to have to find another way in and out of the town.?

[...]

http://www.caribbean360.com/index.php/news/st_lucia_news/47230.html

 

[Pathfinder]

Tomas continues westward - Interest in Jamaica, Haiti and Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this storm

Tomas continues westward - Interest in Jamaica, Haiti and Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this storm

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 021452
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

...TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO THESE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/021452.shtml


Tropical Storm TOMAS Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 021452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA. HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT AROUND 0800 UTC. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...
RESPECTIVELY. THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS NOW AT OR JUST ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. AFTER A FEW DAYS...LAND INTERACTION...DRIER AIR...AND
SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...270/9.
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A STRONG
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48
HOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL
NOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/021452.shtml?

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tomas continues westward - Interest in Jamaica, Haiti and Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this storm

Re: Tomas continues westward - Interest in Jamaica, Haiti and Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this storm

http://<EMBED height=385 type=application/x-shockwave-flash width=480 src=http://www.youtube.com/v/TbPh_Rh7hvE?fs=1&hl=en_US allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></EMBED>

<TABLE border=0 width=498><TBODY><TR><TD class=style26 width=492>St.Lucia

Aerial Tour of Damage

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=style26>Reporter: footage by NEMO/St.Lucia Helicopters </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbPh_Rh7hvE&feature=player_embedded

 

[Pathfinder]

Tomas continues westward - Hurricane Watch for Jamaica - Interests in Haiti and Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this storm

Tomas continues westward - Hurricane Watch for Jamaica - Interests in Haiti and Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this storm

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022046
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND TOMAS WEAKER BUT STILL FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 74.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THESE
AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND TOMAS
COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022046.shtml

 

[Pathfinder]

Tropical storm Tomas is moving nnw - New Warnings and Watches issued

Tropical storm Tomas is moving nnw - New Warnings and Watches issued

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 032037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...TOMAS RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL STORM...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
BARAHONA WESTWARD.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...
LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS
WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR
THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS THE CENTER NEARS HAITI.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/032037.shtml?

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical storm Tomas is moving nnw - New Warnings and Watches issued

Re: Tropical storm Tomas is moving nnw - New Warnings and Watches issued

Tomas caused a lot of damage on the island of Cura?ao
More photos: http://www.mighty-concepts.com/soaking-curacao/



Two dead as Tom?s? tail hits ABC islands
By The Daily Herald

Posted: Nov 3, 2010 19:02 UTC

WILLEMSTAD - Two people died in Cura?ao as the tail of Tropical Storm Tom?s brought up to 265 millimetres of rainfall to certain areas of the island between 7:00pm and 2:30am Monday night, later and much more than the local Met Office had predicted.

The system dipped South and ended up passing closer to the so-called ABC islands Aruba, Bonaire and Cura?ao than forecast, causing heavy showers and thunderstorms. In Cura?ao there were 400 requests for assistance, of which 70 per cent were for flooding, prompting government to request and receive assistance from the Dutch troops on the island.

Prime Minister Schotte said the amount of precipitation within five to six hours was as much as the island normally saw in an entire year. The heavier-than-expected rains were due to wind flows from two different directions as the tail of the system was passing to the North.

[...]
http://news.caribseek.com/Curacao/article_90217.shtml

 

[Pathfinder]

Tomas: Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti

Tomas: Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 040243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 75.2W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING MAYAGUANA AND THE INAGUAS...AS WELL
AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND HOLGUIN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH HAITI ON FRIDAY...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE THURSDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/040243.shtml

 

[Pathfinder]

Tomas - Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban province of Guantanamo

Tomas - Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban province of Guantanamo

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 041448
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...CENTER OF TOMAS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
HAITI...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR JAMAICA OR HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR OVER
EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BE NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE CENTER PASSES
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY..
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/041448.shtml


Tropical Storm TOMAS Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 041504
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE
NOAA PLANE HAS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT...AND A
RECENT DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS AROUND 40 KT AND A CENTRAL
PRESSURE BELOW 997 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/7. A LARGE
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO...WITH THE
CENTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW
CALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE
TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

TOMAS IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING
AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THIS PART OF THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY AND EVENTUAL FATE OF TOMAS ARE STRONGLY TIED TO ITS
TRACK. A NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND ABSORPTION BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. AN EASTWARD
TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. EITHER WAY...TOMAS SHOULD WEAKEN
DURING THIS TIME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
THE 120 HR FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND
THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN
FORECAST.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES
OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 16.3N 76.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 75.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.5N 74.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 21.8N 73.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 24.3N 71.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 69.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 29.5N 66.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/041504.shtml?

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tomas - Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban province of Guantanamo

Re: Tomas - Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban province of Guantanamo

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 042331
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

...TOMAS SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EASTERN JAMAICA AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 36
HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS AND PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF TOMAS
WILL PASS NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA OR WESTERN HAITI TONIGHT...NEAR OR
OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA FRIDAY AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE A HURRICANE AS THE
CENTER PASSES HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...
195 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA IN HAITI THIS EVENING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/042331.shtml?

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tomas - Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban province of Guantanamo

Re: Tomas - Hurricane Warning Issued for Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuban province of Guantanamo

Hurricane TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE TOMAS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
800 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

...TOMAS A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. TOMAS IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS WILL
PASS NEAR WESTERN HAITI THIS MORNING...NEAR OR OVER EXTREME EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
135 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TOMAS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
REPORTS IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF HAITI...AND 3 TO 5 FEET ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF CUBA...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED IN OTHER
PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA TODAY...AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER MUCH OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051149.shtml

--------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane TOMAS Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 050838
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010

TOMAS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS FOUND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 88 KT AND MAXIMUM
SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 75 KT. THE LATTER OBSERVATION
APPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SPIKE IN THE RECORD...AND USING A
BLEND OF THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA GIVES 70 KT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A
TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED
NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS APPROACHING -90C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/08. TOMAS IS LOCATED ON THE EAST
SIDE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MOVE ON A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 48 HOURS...TOMAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD IN A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE INCREASING SHEAR REDUCES TOMAS TO A
SHALLOWER FEATURE. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE
GFS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS. AN ALTERNATIVE EVOLUTION
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF. THE
LATTER MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PRESUMABLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...THAT MOVES MORE
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

TOMAS STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR...HIGH MOISTURE...AND OVER WARM WATERS.
AFTER THAT...A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...NOT TO MENTION DRIER AND COOLER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME FEATURE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION...
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PHASE. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE BUT ABOUT
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...INDICATING
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING
TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS. WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS COULD BE
MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED...CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE
HIGHER THAN 60 KT AFTER 60 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-
THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 18.1N 74.9W 70 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 19.8N 73.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 22.1N 72.4W 75 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 24.4N 70.9W 65 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 25.8N 69.6W 50 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 27.5N 67.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 28.5N 65.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 10/0600Z 28.5N 63.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/050838.shtml?

 

[Pathfinder]

Tomas is now moving northeastward over the open Atlantic, posing no threat to land

Haiti dodges storm disaster, but urgent needs remain

<!--docTitle--><!--Attention ligne utilisée pour l'impression-->Source: Reuters - AlertNet
Date: 06 Nov 2010

<!-- START BOTTOM Attachments links -->
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06 Nov 2010 18:55:44 GMT
By Matthew Bigg

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Earthquake-hit Haiti escaped a fresh disaster threatened by Hurricane Tomas, but the storm caused flooding, forced thousands from their homes and increased humanitarian challenges posed by a cholera epidemic, aid workers said on Saturday.

But government officials and relief workers were relieved that the hurricane, now a tropical storm over the Atlantic, largely spared crowded camps in the Haitian capital housing 1.3 million quake survivors.

Tomas skirted the west of Haiti on Friday, flooding some coastal towns and soaking camps for displaced people in the capital Port-au-Prince with overnight rain.

Six people died, all outside the capital, the government said on Saturday, revising the figure of seven dead it released on Friday. About 10,000 people left their homes voluntarily to escape floodwaters, it said...

United Nations officials said Haiti was lucky it was not harder hit by Tomas, an unpredictable late hurricane in the busy 2010 Atlantic hurricane season...

After raking Haiti with rains, waves and wind, Tomas swept over the Turks and Caicos islands early on Saturday. There were no immediate reports of serious damage or casualties.

By midday Saturday, Tomas was moving northeastward over the open Atlantic, posing no threat to land.

[...]

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/AZHU-8AXQH2?OpenDocument&rc=2&emid=TC-2010-000216-HTI
-------------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm TOMAS Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 062045
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010

...TOMAS MOVING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE OF
INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 70.0W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION
AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NOAA BUOY 41046
REPORTED PEAK 1-MIN WINDS OF 41 MPH...66 KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF
49 MPH...79 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/062045.shtml?


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