Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

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Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

Published Date: 01 December 2009

THE death toll from swine flu in Scotland has risen above 50 after three more people died, Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon confirmed today.

The latest deaths, including two adults who were treated by NHS Greater Glasgow and an older person in NHS Lothian, bring the toll since the outbreak began to 51.

The three latest victims all had underlying health conditions.
Ms Sturgeon said: "This news is heartbreaking and my thoughts are with their families.

"The recent rise in H1N1 deaths is a harsh reminder that everyone must remain vigilant, especially during the winter months.

"I underline the importance of maintaining hygiene standards and urgently seeking medical advice if you are concerned about your symptoms or believe you are at greater risk of influenza complications."

Today's deaths bring the toll for this week to four after the announcement yesterday that an adult, who had underlying health conditions, in the NHS Ayrshire and Arran area had died.

Last month it was announced that children aged over six months and under five years will be the next priority group to get the swine flu jab.

The age group will be prioritised after GPs have finished vaccinating at-risk groups, which include people aged six months to 65 with conditions like asthma, diabetes and heart disease.

Pregnant women and frontline health workers are also currently being given the jab.

Ms Sturgeon added: "The vaccination programme is progressing well and we remain firmly on track to have offered the vaccine to everybody in the first phase of the priority groups by Christmas."

http://www.scotsman.com/scotland/Three-more-deaths-take-Scottish.5872728.jp

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

And the estimated number of new cases in Scotland last week was about 20,000. 9 deaths reported so far since last week's report. That's an estimated CFR of nearly 0.05%

Notably the press never asks Health Minister Nicola Sturgeon why Scotland apparently has about the highest Case Fatality Rate and population based Fatality Rate of anywhere in the world. Part of the answer might be better surveillance and fewer deaths are mis-diagnosed as something else but the question isn't even asked.

 

[TrueScotsman]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

Nicola Sturgeon just repeats herself every time their is a death. All deaths appear in victims with "underlying health conditions" and then says we should "remain vigilant".

I don't think anyone has a chance to ask questions in a conference with this woman. You will never get a straight answer out of her anyway.

 

[ming]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

There doesnt seem to be anybody interested, never mind listening. It's never mentioned on the news. My SIL works in the local hospital and says they had a ward all ready for swine flu patients in JUNE but it is still lying empty and the patients are scattered in single rooms all over the hospital.. with cleaners & visitors & lost people all wandering in and out !

 

[estacion]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

And the estimated number of new cases in Scotland last week was about 20,000. 9 deaths reported so far since last week's report. That's an estimated CFR of nearly 0.5%

Notably the press never asks Health Minister Nicola Sturgeon why Scotland apparently has about the highest Case Fatality Rate and population based Fatality Rate of anywhere in the world. Part of the answer might be better surveillance and fewer deaths are mis-diagnosed as something else but the question isn't even asked.

IMO compare currently death figure with last epi week gives you a wrong picture of current situation (I'm thinking of figure 0.5% is really 0.05% or .05 per thousand). "Deaths need time to dead", such I've posted here http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=131093, I found that median time from contagion to death are 21 days more or less.

In this way, you are getting a more accurate picture if you compare actual deaths with #contagion cases occured three weeks ago.

By the way, the figure you have posted isn't unusual. In Spain I've found that some regions with 0.05% CFR are in the "light side" ones, in fact, some other regions are more in the 0.1% CFR trend.

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

I found that median time from contagion to death are 21 days more or less.

In this way, you are getting a more accurate picture if you compare actual deaths with #contagion cases occured three weeks ago.

By the way, the figure you have posted isn't unusual. In Spain I've found that some regions with 0.05% CFR are in the "light side" ones, in fact, some other regions are more in the 0.1% CFR trend.

It doesn't matter if we go back three weeks because the Scottish ILI rate has been fairly constant for several weeks. The estimated number of new cases per week in Scotland has been around 20,000. Scotland has now had 51 lab confirmed deaths - which would equal 460 deaths if scaled up to Spain. Actual Spanish confirmed deaths about 140 so the Scottish population based death rate is currently more than triple the Spanish rate.

Here's estimated new Scottish Cases up to latest week (Note: This is estimated total numbers, not just those who visit a doctor).

Wk Cases (95% CI)
35 2563 (1636, 4222)
36 3336 (2185, 5431)
37 6181 (3393, 11081)
38 7034 (4455, 11620)
39 13800 (10000, 21400)
40 6800 (4600,10700)
41 12500 (9400, 18600)
42 14650 (11500, 21100)
43 19200 (14700, 28500)
4417500 (13600, 25400)
45 21500 (16800, 31000)
46 21220 (16600,30550)
47 21100 (16500, 30350)

===============

Looking at your Spanish numbers now.

 

[Hogweed]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

(I'm thinking of figure 0.5% is really 0.05%

Sorry missed that typo - I meant 0.05% (or 1 in 2000) as you say.

 

[estacion]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

It doesn't matter if we go back three weeks because the Scottish ILI rate has been fairly constant for several weeks. The estimated number of new cases per week in Scotland has been around 20,000. Scotland has now had 51 lab confirmed deaths - which would equal 460 deaths if scaled up to Spain. Actual Spanish confirmed deaths about 140 so the Scottish population based death rate is currently more than triple the Spanish rate.

Here's estimated new Scottish Cases up to latest week (Note: This is estimated total numbers, not just those who visit a doctor).

Wk Cases (95% CI)
35 2563 (1636, 4222)
36 3336 (2185, 5431)
37 6181 (3393, 11081)
38 7034 (4455, 11620)
39 13800 (10000, 21400)
40 6800 (4600,10700)
41 12500 (9400, 18600)
42 14650 (11500, 21100)
43 19200 (14700, 28500)
4417500 (13600, 25400)
45 21500 (16800, 31000)
46 21220 (16600,30550)
47 21100 (16500, 30350)

===============

Looking at your Spanish numbers now.

Sorry for the delay, you could get some idea in this thread http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=327300&postcount=6

 

[ming]

Re: Three more deaths take Scottish swine flu toll to 51

Nobody here seems interested, nobody is talking about it or asking about it.
Out of sight, out of mind eh ?