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This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic

Gert van der Hoek

In Memoriam - Editor, Senior Moderator
Highly Recommended

SEPTEMBER 30, 2020

There’s something strange about this coronavirus pandemic. Even after months of extensive research by the global scientific community, many questions remain open.

Why, for instance, was there such an enormous death toll in northern Italy, but not the rest of the country? Just three contiguous regions in northern Italy have 25,000 of the country’s nearly 36,000 total deaths; just one region, Lombardy, has about 17,000 deaths. Almost all of these were concentrated in the first few months of the outbreak. What happened in Guayaquil, Ecuador, in April, when so many died so quickly that bodies were abandoned in the sidewalks and streets?*

Why, in the spring of 2020, did so few cities account for a substantial portion of global deaths, while many others with similar density, weather, age distribution, and travel patterns were spared? What can we really learn from Sweden, hailed as a great success by some because of its low case counts and deaths as the rest of Europe experiences a second wave, and as a big failure by others because it did not lock down and suffered excessive death rates earlier in the pandemic? Why did widespread predictions of catastrophe in Japan not bear out? The baffling examples go on.
 
Yes, very informative and important. The US probably could never do as well as Japan due to the interaction of this coronavirus and obesity, but I'm sure the cluster management approach would be helpful.
 
Dynamics of 2nd wave are not the same as during the 1st wave Germany is following the path of Japan: cluster control and backward tracing. Christian Drosten is a virologist and top advisor of the German government. Google can help to translate this great piece.


Second corona wave:

A plan for the fall



Tracking down the drivers of the epidemic, shortening the quarantine, evaluating the tests more precisely - with this strategy we can prevent a new lockdown in a second wave.

A guest contribution by Christian Drosten
 
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