tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Nov 11:1-10. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005-2013.[/h] Chen TM[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen QP[SUP]2[/SUP], Liu RC[SUP]3[/SUP], Szot A[SUP]4[/SUP], Chen SL[SUP]3[/SUP], Zhao J[SUP]3[/SUP], Zhou SS[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Hundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7?04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2?7 and the standard deviation (s.d.) σ = 1?1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2?51 (s.d. = 0?73), 4?11 (s.d. = 2?20) and 5?88 (s.d. = 5?00), respectively. When Tc = 2?9 and σ = 1?4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2?62 (s.d. = 0?78), 4?72 (s.d. = 2?82) and 6?86 (s.d. = 6?34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4?32 (s.d. = 2?47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; mathematical model; reproduction number; small-scale outbreak
PMID: 27834157 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268816002508
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
[h=1]The transmissibility estimation of influenza with early stage data of small-scale outbreaks in Changsha, China, 2005-2013.[/h] Chen TM[SUP]1[/SUP], Chen QP[SUP]2[/SUP], Liu RC[SUP]3[/SUP], Szot A[SUP]4[/SUP], Chen SL[SUP]3[/SUP], Zhao J[SUP]3[/SUP], Zhou SS[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]
[h=3]Abstract[/h] Hundreds of small-scale influenza outbreaks in schools are reported in mainland China every year, leading to a heavy disease burden which seriously impacts the operation of affected schools. Knowing the transmissibility of each outbreak in the early stage has become a major concern for public health policy-makers and primary healthcare providers. In this study, we collected all the small-scale outbreaks in Changsha (a large city in south central China with ~7?04 million population) from January 2005 to December 2013. Four simple and popularly used models were employed to calculate the reproduction number (R) of these outbreaks. Given that the duration of a generation interval Tc = 2?7 and the standard deviation (s.d.) σ = 1?1, the mean R estimated by an epidemic model, normal distribution and delta distribution were 2?51 (s.d. = 0?73), 4?11 (s.d. = 2?20) and 5?88 (s.d. = 5?00), respectively. When Tc = 2?9 and σ = 1?4, the mean R estimated by the three models were 2?62 (s.d. = 0?78), 4?72 (s.d. = 2?82) and 6?86 (s.d. = 6?34), respectively. The mean R estimated by gamma distribution was 4?32 (s.d. = 2?47). We found that the values of R in small-scale outbreaks in schools were higher than in large-scale outbreaks in a neighbourhood, city or province. Normal distribution, delta distribution, and gamma distribution models seem to more easily overestimate the R of influenza outbreaks compared to the epidemic model.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] Influenza; mathematical model; reproduction number; small-scale outbreak
PMID: 27834157 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268816002508
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]