Re: The "Panic" factor: How Best Handled?
I cant talk about this without chanelling Sandman and Lanard, because I think they've written the most definitive info on it I can find. It's time tested and proven to work. I beleive in their work. In fact, I'd bet my next paycheck that their body of knowledge is the single most important weapon we currently have! I worry we arent taking advantage of it.
I think the most important action is to first define panic! The PTB may need to realize that reaction itself doesn't indicate the dreaded "panic" and that some reaction is inevitable due to the message and the hoped for response of widespread preparation activity.
There's the natural and normal first reaction to threat, that my heroes call the "adjustment reaction". Its different than panic. Its healthy and normal. It means the message is getting across. It's the impetus that motivates people to prepare- to take the actions we would like to see them take. It helps people preview and live the crisis in their minds in advance of the actual danger, and thus become more physicaly and mentally competant if the crisis materializes.
Although there is some anxiety and a moderate to high level of concern during that phase, its different than panic. During the adjustment reaction phase, an individual will seek info and take actions. They may verbalize their concerns and frustrations. They may feel some of the feelings that would accompany the crisis. But irrational behavior that is harmful to self or society appears to be very rare if the threat is percieved but not current.
Let me illustrate with an example- if the public is truly, repeatedly and intelligently informed to prepare to SIP for 12 weeks, I predict there will be a a range or responses. Inititially the most visible and critical will be media response. There will be some that applaud the move, some that deride it, because of a variety of reasons. There will be some that attempt to twist the news to suit their own agendas.
There may be some social ramifications. There may be a short market downturn, There may be individuals who take stupid actions, but they will be rare. Some official tolerance for this phase must be developed in advance. they should agre ein advance not to get "cold feet" and retreat from the plan if the going seems tough in the beginning. The rewards of riding it out- and the ramifications of not doing so- are both so very high!
Keep repeating the message, the need and logic behind it. Applaud those who "get it". Do not respond with vitriol to those who dont, say you understand its hard to adjust to, but hope they will soon learn and understand more. Acknowledge their responses openly and honestly, without sounding too superior or condescending. "We're all on the same team".
Agree you dont like the message either, and hate to be the one giving it. Admit being the bearer of such tidings and the potential crisis itself makes you uncomfortable, too. Share that there is uncertainty, and you feel it too. Share that the discomfort and anxiety you feel about a possible crisis is lessened when you prepared, because you feel more self reliant and now have some control over your personal and official ability to respond to uncertainty.
Encourage coverage on other regular mainstream folk who have prepared. Let them share how they have become more confident and comfortable by having the ability to be somewhat self reliant. Use real life examples. Let them speak for you in a variety of venues, to increase credibility.
Highlight the benefits of those actions. Mention how even minimal preparation of a few weeks has almost daily benefits in time, money and effort, even if the crisis never occurs. (Heck, many of us have been "Preparation Apologists" for a decade, and have that part down pat! LOL) Highlight examples of how other situations that could have caused problems were made easier by preps- some might be the people who are preppers who weathered the recent hurricanes in relative comfort, compared to those who are not. Use real life examples.
Keep the message visible. Sandman and Lanard have more wisdom for us here. Authorities may not need to "speak with one voice" (and probably won't!). I have thought abouit this since I first read their article on it awhile back. I believe that one point should be added to any communication program that acknowleged this-encourage and insist that those who do speak out keep the concept that the goal is to lessen mortality and suffering, whatever the risk or crisis. Tell people often that is your goal. Run every decision and considered action and statement through that mental filter. The consistency of that goal message, if not the actual beliefs and feeling will shine through eventually. That is IMHO the key to credibility.
This approach will help develop credibility BEFORE the crisis-its currently fairly low post Katrina, so desperately needs improvment. Credibility will be important. People who trust their advisors and leaders will be more likely to follow recommendations and orders. They will be less likely to truly panic and act out with irrational behavior that may not be in that individuals, or societies, best interests.
Continue to tell the truth. loud and often. Clean, clear and with an attitude of concern and perhaps mild urgency but not showing internal panic. Make sure its not sugar coated, but do use the risk communication principles that Sandman and Lanard suggest.
Dont be afraid to share the uncertainty, too, not just the message; when situations arise that make it appropriate to do so. About "what-when-if and what will come of it". Don't be afraid to acknowledge that things could get bad. Highlight that you consider bad scenarios because not doing so would be irresponsible, but if you yourself honestly believe its unlikely, say so. Say you know that if people prepare, it will make a bad situation better and help aver thte worst possible outcomes. Yes, there will be criticism; but that should fade (it may take a month or three! and will see-saw back and forth as new info comes out) if the message is repeated often enough with the same clear concern for all people shining through.
Understand there will be a price to be paid. That during the adjustment reaction phase there will be noticeable reaction. Understand that the markets may react. Know that there will be a period of adjustment that might have some effects that can be measured and criticized. Know that many officials are scared of this happening. Help them through it.
Come to understand and share the message with those officials and the public that this is a small price to be paid, akin to the prick of a dentist's needle- a minor short term disconfort to be endured compared to the long lasting misery of a toothache you'd have later if you didnt do it! Accept this in advance; manage it wisely if it happens.
Acknowledge internally and publicly in advance the adjustment reaction phase will cause activity and crticism, and what might happen as we as a nation go through it. This will both publicly and privately help preempt the more severe negative reactions and criticism about the phase. Share that you know it is uncomfortable, but that it will only last a short while as people do prepare. Acknowledge that you are, in a way, glad to see it- it proves that more people are preparing and adjusting to the possiblities, and as a result will be safe in a pandemic or whatever crisis may come our way. That also reinforces the greater goal message, adding credibility.
Back up the talk with credible actions that reinforce and "speak louder than words". Consider what can be done to help people prepare. Education, tax benefits for preparation activity (perhaps include small power systems in this, such as solar panels and batteries, etc), making purchases of some preparation related food and supplies tax free, take regulatory action to allow individuals the ability to keep three months of prescription meds on hand, allow individuals to buy antivirals now for their family (perhaps without a prescription?) make a plan and include education on how/when to use them.
Begin public dialogue in many different areas and with a town hall type of format. Use the communication style above. Keep the goal message in front of as many people as you can. Allow individuals to contribute. Encourage and support communities and groups to develop intiatives and strategies and novel approaches. Publicize the best, reinforce postive actions and behavior in a big way-fly them to the White House and give them plaques and medals if you have to, but make it a behavior that is envied and admired. And attainable for almost anyone! Create heroes the public can identify with- because they are part of the public. Everyday heroes make a difference, they bring out that little part of each of us that can identify with them and strive to do likewise.
Keep the same main messengers and the same goal message throughout, whenever possible. Adapt to situational changes. But don't change the goal message. Get help from your heroes. Acknowledge if/when you do make mistakes. Acknowledge you dont like it either- errors or not. Learn how to deliver a blameless apology when you arent at fault; but apologize from the heart if you are, and fix it!
I think this is the necessary groundwork, and it needs to be started yesterday. The more time we have to institute and go forth with a program similar to this- than the better the chance that when a crisis does occur, it will be manageable and the suffering and disruption minimized.
So, its easy- just create a new paradigm, a new national climate of preparation and self reliance! LOLOL. Yea, it is a challenge-but its doable, using the same resources and skills we have available now, without serious additional resource depletion. After the intitial ripples; it will increase the national confidence in leadership, which has many benefits. It will minimize later disruption and true panic. It will accomplish just what your goal message has said all along-increased survival and diminshed suffering. It will make recovery faster and easier, and may be the only thing we can now do to prevent total collapse if things do get bad. It also increases our ability to respond and weather any crisis, it is an "all hazards" approach that stands us in good stead no matter what happens. That's a good thing in our uncertain world.
It is a challenge, and its going to be uncomfortable to do. It's a new normal for those officials who adopt that type of stance, and they will have to adjust to the transparency, the message and the ups and downs that go with it. We will need special men and women to live the message, and it may be hard for them at times to be that big. The rewards may seem far away at times, but for those who need to make a positive difference in this world- they will be priceless.
The alternatives are much more challenging and painful. And scary. True mass panic on anational scale is something we havent dealt with before. Its ugly and scary and very different than what will happen if we take appropriate preemptive social action. I feel far less confident that we as individuals and as a nation (any nation, I'm not being USA-centric here, I think my beliefs apply worldwide; with a few notiable exceptions!) can wether this storm and survive a severe pandemic or any widepsread social disaster unless we lay this ground work and avoid or minimize true disseminated panic.
There were lessons in Katrina, in Argentina, and in the Tsunami. It's up to us to learn and apply them for the greater good. It may be all that stands between us and a future reality too painful to contemplate.
The irony is that only by confronting that difficult task-contemplating it; then acknowledging it publicly and encouraging actions to mitigate it can we avoid the reality we fear.
