• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

The Pandemic is Not Over - FluTrackers In Support of WHO Decision Not to Change Pandemic Levels

Tonka

Well-known member
http://www.elcorreo.com/agencias/20...on-mantener-levantar-alerta_201006021348.html

Spanish-English translation

13:48 Society LATEST NEWS
WHO postponed one more day decision on whether to raise the pandemic alert

EFEGinebra News, June 2 (EFE) .- The World Health Organization (WHO), postponed until tomorrow announcing the decision on lifting or maintaining alertness for influenza pandemic, which held nearly a year ago.
The final word rests with the health agency's director general, Margaret Chan, who has chosen to allow time for reflection before disclose whether or not it endorses the recommendation he received from a group of scientists who analyzed the evolution yesterday of the pandemic.
A WHO source confirmed to Efe that the CEO will report tomorrow, Thursday, its decision, although last night said it would be reported today.
The aforementioned scientists, who make up the so-called Emergency Committee of WHO, have been conveyed his conclusions to Chan, who now has the responsibility to endorse or not.
The recommendations of this Committee have a high scientific value and is given almost for granted that the general manager for endorsement, although the delay in announcing his decision makes planning the shadow of doubt.
The H1N1 virus was discovered in April last year in North America and became the first pandemic of the twenty-first century due to its rapid geographic spread and generated fears that a virus because it is unknown and likely to mutate.
It also established that the risk groups were not the usual (old), but younger age groups (including health), pregnant women and people with chronic health problems.
However, as months passed, confirming that, overall, the virus had moderate consequences and that their mortality rate was even less than that of seasonal flu.
The H1N1 virus has resulted in a little over thirteen months some 18,000 deaths confirmed by laboratory tests, against the 500,000 annual deaths attributed to seasonal influenza.
Despite these findings, WHO pandemic alert kept saying it was necessary to extend preventive measures while observing the evolution of the virus and possible dangerous mutations were discarded.
The virus in question is predominantly circulated worldwide displacing the viral strain of seasonal influenza.
Therefore, there is the possibility that given that the flu season this year will begin shortly at the southern hemisphere, scientists deem appropriate to observe how the virus evolves in this new stage before lifting the declaration of a pandemic.
This situation led to the adoption of emergency measures around the world to control the rate of spread of disease, an elusive goal against the flow of international travel.
In this regard, WHO recommended always to keep open air communications
 
Re: The Pandemic is Not Over

Re: The Pandemic is Not Over

The Pandemic is Not Over.

We DO NOT support any kind of declaration that diminishes the risk of novel H1N1 spread.

Please maintain a high alert on this illness.


The Directors of FluTrackers.com Inc.
 
Re: The Pandemic is Not Over

Re: The Pandemic is Not Over

I would like to support the position of Sharon.

There are many who live in the third world in countries that are the least prepared or equipped for a pandemic.

There are numerous countries facing their first major onslaught from pandemic H1N1 including Africa, some South American and some Asian countries.

These are (in many cases but not all) the least well equipped or prepared countries to deal with pandemic H1N1. They most need the support that a Phase 6 pandemic alert can bring.

The decisions of WHO should not be based on the needs or perceptions of the first world, which are not fully representative of the world as a whole - the WHO is there to support the health of the poorest nations, and global health as a whole.
 
Re: The Pandemic is Not Over

Re: The Pandemic is Not Over

Two extra mutations set the stage for the seasonal influenza virus to evolve into a form that now resists three of the four drugs designed to fight it, researchers reported on Thursday.

Health

Their study, published in the journal Science, provides a way for scientists to keep an eye out for dangerous mutations in new flu viruses, including the ongoing pandemic of H1N1 swine flu.

Only four drugs are on the market to treat flu and two, the adamantines, are useless against virtually all circulating strains because the viruses have evolved resistance.

Tamiflu, known generically as oseltamivir, is the current drug of choice. It comes as a pill made by Roche AG under license from Gilead Sciences. GlaxoSmithKline makes an inhaled drug that works in a similar manner called Relenza, or zanamivir generically.

Both can help reduce flu symptoms if taken quickly and can keep the most vulnerable patients out of the hospital, or keep them alive if they are severely ill. But two years ago the common circulating strain of seasonal H1N1 developed resistance to Tamiflu.

Doctors were surprised, because the mutation that help the virus evade the effects of Tamiflu also usually made it a weak virus that did not infect or spread well.

"People have known about this H274Y mutation for over a decade, but the mutation seemed to interfere with the virus's ability to replicate and be transmitted," Jesse Bloom of the California Institute of Technology, who led the study, said in a statement.

"Something happened to make the Tamiflu-resistant virus also capable of replicating and spreading like wild-type flu viruses."


Bloom and Dr. David Baltimore, an expert on AIDS and on the genetic functions of cells and viruses at Caltech, led a study to find out how this happened.

They found two other mutations in the virus allowed it not only to evade the effects of Tamiflu but to survive and spread.In addition, the mutations took place before the third and final mutation allowing the virus to evade the drugs. This means that scientists can monitor flu viruses for the initial two mutations to give early warning that they are about to become drug resistant.

This is important in planning for both seasonal influenza and pandemics. Seasonal flu kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people every year globally.

H1N1 swine flu may have been just slightly more deadly -- statistics will take years to gather -- but it affects younger adults and children in contrast to seasonal flu, which kills more elderly people.

Currently swine flu is easily treated by Tamiflu but that could change at any time.

So doctors need drugs on hand to save lives and if one drug will be useless, they need to know that because flu must be treated within days of onset for treatment to be useful.


Earlier on Thursday the World Health Organization said the H1N1 pandemic was not yet over although its most intense activity has passed in many parts of the world.

(Reporting by Maggie Fox, editing by Philip Barbara)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6526CI20100603

I agree with you Sharon, as long as the virus continues to evolve away from effective treatments and gains more of the avian flu genes, it's going to be causing big problems for public health managers and the caregivers and general population IMHO. thanks for keeping ahead of the curve, you sure can pick 'em )
 
Re: The Pandemic is Not Over - FluTrackers In Support of WHO Decision Not to Change Pandemic Levels

Coming from Malaysia and South East Asia, we are bearing the brunt of H1N1, with cases spiking and fatalities still occuring. I concur WHO's decision.
 
Re: The Pandemic is Not Over - FluTrackers In Support of WHO Decision Not to Change Pandemic Levels

I also concur that a declaration 'the pandemic is over', which is how a change form phase 6 would be interpreted, is premature. I would like to see one more N. Hemisphere winter, at least.

Re, Maggie Fox's article please note H274Y is not the only know mutation to cause Oseltamivir resistance, resistance is not all or nothing and, most importantly, findings on one genetic background seldom hold for others. Biological function is generally determined by interactions of whole folded proteins and other proteins, sets of proteins or smaller molecules. Changes of single, or groups of, nucleotides make subtle changes in tertiary protein structure and we are no where close to understanding their significance, in almost all cases. It is tempting to see cause and effect on one genetic background and think it may work the same way on a different genetic background, this kind of extrapolation does not generally work. Also do not be fooled by H1N1(seasonal) and H1N1(2009) both being H1N1s they are very different beasts by sequence and therefore in the folded tertiary structure of their proteins.
 
Re: The Pandemic is Not Over - FluTrackers In Support of WHO Decision Not to Change Pandemic Levels

Experts are warning against complacency towards the H1N1 virus, saying it ?has a sting in its tail? and will be back this way come winter, writes CLAIRE O'CONNELL

A YEAR AGO this week the World Health Organisation teetered on the brink of calling the first flu pandemic of the 21st century. The new H1N1 ?swine flu? variant was spreading around the globe and with it came a measure of unpredictability that goes with any pandemic virus.

On June 11th they declared the pandemic level to be at phase six ? a full pandemic ? thereby ramping up national preparation plans further and setting vaccine production in train.

A year on, more than 18,000 people have died from confirmed swine flu, and last week the WHO confirmed the pandemic status still stands.

?It is predicted that H1N1 will continue to be the primary or overwhelming virus among influenza viruses for quite a while,? said WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl. ?Pandemic or no pandemic, H1N1 will still exist.?

The virus is currently active in the Caribbean and southeast Asia, and one academic who spoke at a conference in Trinity College Dublin last month reckons it will kick off again in this part of the world in the coming winter.

?I think swine flu is still going to cause trouble,? says John Oxford, professor of virology at St Bartholomew?s and the Royal London Hospital, and scientific director at Retroscreen Virology, a contract research organisation that conducts trials on anti-viral drugs and vaccines.

?Great viruses start small and go big rather quickly, so we have to be careful,? he says. ?Pandemic H1N1 is a virus with a sting in its tail and I think that?s what we have to contend with. It?s too early to do a postmortem. We will see what lies ahead, but viruses don?t go easily into this dark night.?


He has studied the unfolding of previous influenza pandemics, particularly the Spanish flu around 1918, and he says we need to learn the lessons of ?fewer memorials and better preparation?.

In particular, individuals need to be aware of how to limit the spread of disease, according to Oxford.

?It?s the home front that decides everything,? he says. ?Anti-science doesn?t help ? we don?t want to be getting into a flap, making non-scientific decisions and getting caught. Instead, on the home front we need hygiene, social distancing and knowledge, and a huge knowledge base has already been passed from one group to another, such as the importance of hand-washing to limit the spread of the virus.?

Oxford is a strong advocate of vaccination, and rubbishes the notion that governments invested unwisely in stockpiles of jabs against the new virus.

?It?s no time to be complacent and say we wasted our money on vaccines, because we haven?t. This is a virus that will be in the community for a long time.?
Vaccine immunologist Dr Anne Moore of the school of pharmacy at University College Cork agrees that vaccines have been important in the push to keep the pandemic H1N1 virus down.

?The only way to prevent the ?09 variant from becoming more virulent was to eliminate it via public-health measures. Key to this is vaccination,? she says.

?If one looks at 1918, the first wave of infection was by a non-lethal virus strain that had the opportunity to develop into a strain with very high mortality over the next nine to 12 months, some would say even longer. If we had not taken steps to control the new variant that emerged last year, it is likely that we could have experienced the same effect of a second-wave lethal variant this year. Some would argue that the WHO did cry wolf, but you don?t want to take the chance of the wolf killing your animals.?
Moore also notes that the strategy of developing mock-up vaccines ahead of the pandemic meant that once the pandemic was called it was possible to manufacture and license new vaccines against H1N1 relatively quickly, in fewer than six months.

?If anything, we are in a stronger position today than last year, as we now know that this prior preparation worked, and we can also learn lessons from how it was rolled out,? she says.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/health/2010/0608/1224272047533.html
 
Back
Top