• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

the New York City watch thread

Re: the New York City watch thread

school attendance was down yesterday
2nd peak in ILI-visits
while the rest of New York State is going down

no update at ISDS since Nov.16

ACHA

school-data


almost stays at the same level in NYC since more than 2 weeks now,
while the surroundings are post peak already and going down



in total, it looks like Hudson Valley and Long Island
will have about half of what the rest of NYS has in
this wave, while it was vice versa in wave 1.

NYC has it longer in wave 2 than in wave 1 but the peak
is much lower. The total amount could be roughly one third
of that in wave one. (my prediction)








weekly college ILI-cases from ACHA

week 40: NJ:183/121016=15.1 NY:352/201455=17.5
week 41: NJ:169/120216=14.1 NY:471/225521=20.9
week 42: NJ:190/128016=14.8 NY:718/204021=35.3
week 43: NJ:274/118016=23.2 NY:1017/219071=46.4
week 44: NJ:156/68800=22.7 NY:888/224426=39.6
week 45: NJ:299,115816=25.6 NY:709/199421=35.6
week 46: NJ:129,110516=11.7 NY:424/208712=20.3
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

11/30/2009 49 451 12,234
11/29/2009 50 467 9,898
11/28/2009 50 455 9,864
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

amount of ILI in 2009 in New York State ecept New York City
in percent of weekly ED-visits

A: seasonal, 16 weeks
B: first wave , 10 weeks
C: interwaves , 24 weeks
D: 2nd wave(until week 47) , 7 weeks
E: total


Code: 
  A    B   C   D    E   region
----------------------------------      
 103   64  75  93  335  Central
  94  105  70  60  329  HudsonValley
 100  107  68  59  334  LongIsland
  86   57  62  90  295  Capital&Northeast
  88   65  65  89  307  Buffalo&Rochester
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

finally seems to go down in NYC.
Some weeks delayed over other areas.
http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/images/daily_counts_fever.ratio_nyc_6_15.png

accessed Nov.27 , 20:20 UTC
11/26/2009 47 314 6,980
11/25/2009 47 395 9,853
11/24/2009 47 392 10,520

Nov.30 , 20:00 UTC
11/29/2009 49 458 9,472
11/28/2009 49 453 9,549
11/27/2009 49 422 10,755

Dec.02 , 21:00 UTC
11/30/2009 49 451 12,234
11/29/2009 50 467 9,898
11/28/2009 50 455 9,864

Dec.4,17:00 UTC
12/3/2009 48 364 10,658
12/2/2009 48 405 10,861
12/1/2009 48 366 10,809

Dec.07 , 23:00 UTC
12/6/2009 48 342 8,898
12/5/2009 49 281 8,942
12/4/2009 49 311 10,707


the total amount in wave 2 is almost like a seasonal wave.




all sites: http://isdsdistribute.org/linecharts/100.gif

New York: http://isdsdistribute.org/linecharts/15.gif
Boston : http://isdsdistribute.org/linecharts/21.gif
Denver: http://isdsdistribute.org/linecharts/5.gif
San Diego: http://isdsdistribute.org/linecharts/50.gif
Kingston: http://isds.cirg.washington.edu/distribute/images/daily_counts_fever.ratio_konca_9_16.png



NYBO1.GIF



at the peak of a wave, enouth people are immune, so the wave goes down.

But at the start of the next wave, many of those had lost immunity, so the new wave can build.


Makes me wonder, whether not maybe many more (>50% of children) were infected asymptomatically,
giving them short-term protection which doesn't show up in the blood-tests.
And the same for seasonal waves.



NBO1.GIF
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

it often goes up on Monday, but this week it went up on
Sunday and Monday. However the weekly trend seems
to be going down

12/8/2009 50 333 10,941
12/7/2009 50 440 11,978
12/6/2009 50 373 9,464

they should give the chart of the ratio of ILI-visits divided by total ED-visits
well, they do give it for the age-groups, but 5 days delayed to the
chart below



attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • nyed1208.webp
    nyed1208.webp
    15.5 KB · Views: 2
Re: the New York City watch thread

accessed Nov.27 , 20:20 UTC
11/26/2009 47 314 6,980
11/25/2009 47 395 9,853
11/24/2009 47 392 10,520

Nov.30 , 20:00 UTC
11/29/2009 49 458 9,472
11/28/2009 49 453 9,549
11/27/2009 49 422 10,755

Dec.02 , 21:00 UTC
11/30/2009 49 451 12,234
11/29/2009 50 467 9,898
11/28/2009 50 455 9,864

Dec.4,17:00 UTC
12/3/2009 48 364 10,658
12/2/2009 48 405 10,861
12/1/2009 48 366 10,809

Dec.07 , 23:00 UTC
12/6/2009 48 342 8,898
12/5/2009 49 281 8,942
12/4/2009 49 311 10,707

Dec.09 , 09:00 UTC
12/7/2009 49 403 11,304
12/6/2009 49 352 9,157
12/5/2009 49 281 8,955

Dec.10 , 10:00 UTC
12/8/2009 50 333 10,941
12/7/2009 50 440 11,978
12/6/2009 50 373 9,464


daily ratio in % since Nov.24:
Code: 
----,3.73,4.01,4.50,3.92,4.61,4.72
3.69,3.39,3.73,3.42,2.90,3.14,3.94
3.67,3.04


ratio with 7-day moving average:

attachment.php
 

Attachments

  • nyed1.gif
    nyed1.gif
    1.8 KB · Views: 2
  • nye2.gif
    nye2.gif
    3.2 KB · Views: 2
Re: the New York City watch thread

We were absolutely pounded by a monsoon rain storm yesterday morning so maybe that could explain.
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

Following NYC school attendance at Trancy
http://trancy.net/nyc-school-attendance/

Things that account for some of the low attendance days; rates are on the left:

83.51 Oct 30 Bloomberg declares state of emergency on the 29th
86.05 Nov 10 Veteran's Day Nov 11
85.23 Nov 25 Thanksgiving weekend
80.98 Dec 23 beginning of Christmas vacation
84.11 Jan 25 (?)
66.67 Feb 11 Snow day declared (?)
84.74 Feb 25 Parent/teacher afternoon conferences
Feb 26 Snow day declared (2nd one in Feb)

NYC School calendar gives school acititives which may impact attendance:
http://tinyurl.com/ylld2qp

Calendar for federal holidays:
http://www.opm.gov/Operating_Status_Schedules/fedhol/2010.asp
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

are the 2010 US- P+I excess deaths due to ****** ?
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

deaths peaked 8 weeks after ILI

except the last peak in USA,2010 which was 12 weeks later
 
Re: the New York City watch thread

Since it's time for the new school year to start, here's a screen cap of the 2009-2010 school year. In addition to the days noted previously, attendance dipped to 85% or below on March 16, May 3, June 8 and June 17. The website began reporting the school year on Sept 9 and ended June 25.

Thanks to http://trancy.net/nyc-school-attendance/

NYC School Attendance 2009 9-9 to 6-25.webp
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom