the mystery of the lacking German deaths

[gsgs]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

hmm, OK maybe France,Netherlands etc. are underreporting cases, and it goes
West--> East, starting in England (eho got it from intense contact with USA)
and Spain (contact with Mexico)

But we don't see this usually with seasonal flu.
It travels by airplane.

And CFR < 1:20000 is less than what we had elsewhere where there
was a wave already. And they had estimates from ILI-surveillance, polls
while we are still counting cases and are assuming that all cases had been found.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

gsgs,
IMO it is not unusual ! I think, the rate of underreporting of cases in other European countries is much worse than in Germany (Spain for example: For a while there had been more cases of novel influenza H1N1 in German tourists returning from Spain then Spanish in-country cases).

Take a look at the ECDC map:

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/healthtopics/PublishingImages/EU_Map_web.jpg
(copy see attechment)

The pandemic progress clearly goes from west (atlantic coast) to the east of Europe. IMO CFR at this time (!) is lower in Europe then expected.

I agree,

here in the Netherlands no underreporting, but not reporting at all!
Only seriously ill patients are tested.

My estimation is we've had tens of thousands of cases in our country, much more than in Germany.

My cousin came back from her holiday in Spain with a flu, the doctor said: no, it is not swineflu, it is not serious, just sit it out. No testing. No doubt in my mind she had swineflu.

Tamiflu? For patients in the "riskgroups" only, the "young and healthy" are excluded from this, also excluded from vaccination.

Schools closed? No, because "until now it is mild" and "you will get it anyway".

People make jokes about the swineflu, don't take it seriously.

Some are in hospital or die? "Yes, sure, they were ill already". This is true for the 4 deaths sofar.

52 out of 90 hospitalisations were "young and healthy' according to RIVM, however this is not written in the press.


Same story in Scandinavia?

 

[gsgs]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

when it's bad for one party, then it's good for the other.
But both are silent about it. Conspiracy ?

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

Given the Australian research that low IgG2 levels are partly responsible for serious swine flu cases (as discussed here: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=125480&highlight=IgG2), and we accept that low selenium causes low IgG2.....

Looking for German dietary selenium levels, we find low soil selenium, BUT a major dietary source is......BEER! Germany is a major per capita beer consumer.

Selenium sources: beer. A study of trace minerals in beverages in France showed that selenium is provided by beer: "Alcoholic drinks represent 35% of the daily intake of beverages; they are likewise the main source of minerals such as: iodine and iron (wine), selenium (beer), fluorine, calcium and copper (in all alcoholic drinks)."

A study of selenium in Germany showed that the soils in Germany are very low in selenium and the largest contributions to selenium in the German diet come from beer and seafood. This may explain the high incidence of thyroid disease in Germany and the high intake of beer there. "Consumption of beer yeast and frequent fish meals caused improvement of the selenium status. CONCLUSION: In area of Dresden, similar to the whole of Germany, a marginal selenium supply exists. Therefore it is of high importance to consider a balanced nutrition and to control the selenium status especially in serious acute diseases and in intensive care." selenium sources in germany--beer and seafood.doc

"Selenium - sources of the antioxidant selenium are brazil nuts, brewers yeast, kelp, brown rice, liver, molasses, seafood, wheatgerm, whole-grains, garlic and onions." liver health--Dr. Sandra Cabot.doc

http://www.ithyroid.com/selenium.htm


Per capita beer consumption:

1 Czech Republic 156.9
2 Ireland 131.1
3 Germany 115.8

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_beer_consumption_per_capita

It would be interesting to see if serious H1N1 cases were heavy beer drinkers.

Now we can add brazil nuts and beer to prep items.

.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

Well, I must say beer seems more attractive to me than camelmilk....

I'me gone, prepping...

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

Therefore it is of high importance to consider a balanced nutrition and to control the selenium status especially in serious acute diseases and in intensive care."

Do they serve beer in German ICUs?

.

 

[gsgs]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

o'zapft is
but hopefully not for the school-kids who are mostly infected

 

[gsgs]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

> 19000 German cases are reported, the RKI assumes at
> least 10 times as many of the disease

so, that's 190000 infected and not a single death

I assume that people who died with respiratory symptoms are being tested
for flu. Apparantly there are not many cases of excess deaths
during ****** outbreaks, see NY


To compare : it had been estimated that there had been

~800000 infected in New York with 50 deaths
~600000 infected in NZ with 16 deaths
~2000000 infected in Australia with 180 deaths
~500000 infected in the UK with 80 deaths
~ 4000000 infected in Argentina with 500 deaths

> Das RKI geht mindestens von dem Zehnfachen an Erkrankungen aus

das macht dann 190000 Erkrankte und kein Todesfall ?!?!?????

Tote mit Grippesymptomen werden doch sicherlich getestet ...
Ausserdem scheint es diese zusaetzlichen ungetesteten
Todesfaelle kaum zu geben , siehe New York.

 

[ming]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

...Would it be possible to look up anywhere, the number of German deaths from pneumonia for this summer ?
I don't speak german and anyway don't know where to look

 

[gsgs]

Re: the mystery of the lacking German deaths

of course, they keep the statistics of deaths and causes

statistisches Bundesamt

statistische Landes?mter

but it is delayed, as in other countries.
It takes some years until the 2009 data is available.

Leipzig has data every 3 months and publishes it on the web
also Hamburg,Schleswig Holstein (?)

official flu-deaths or maybe also pneumonia-deaths are maybe reported
in the flu-surveys, I don't know.

The hospitals do keep records of the deaths, some are online
how is it called ? Qualit?tsbericht or such
----------------
http://www.klinik-lotse.de/khsWeb_V3/resourcen/all/pdf/lesehilfe_qb.pdf
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krankenhaus