Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates
Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi, and Dongho Song NBER Working Paper No. 28304 December 2020JEL No. C32,E32,I14,J11
ABSTRACT
We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, lifeexpectancy, and mortality rates. We fit a Vector-autoregression (VAR) for the overall US populationand for groups identified based on gender and race. We find that shocks to unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in mortality rates and declines in life expectancy. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race/gender, resulting in a 3.0% increase in mortality rate and a 0.5% drop in life expectancy over the next 15 years for the overall American population. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while white men might suffer large consequences over longer horizons. These figures translate in a staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.
Read more: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf
Francesco Bianchi, Giada Bianchi, and Dongho Song NBER Working Paper No. 28304 December 2020JEL No. C32,E32,I14,J11
ABSTRACT
We adopt a time series approach to investigate the historical relation between unemployment, lifeexpectancy, and mortality rates. We fit a Vector-autoregression (VAR) for the overall US populationand for groups identified based on gender and race. We find that shocks to unemployment are followed by statistically significant increases in mortality rates and declines in life expectancy. We use our results to assess the long-run effects of the COVID-19 economic recession on mortality and life expectancy. We estimate the size of the COVID-19-related unemployment to be between 2 and 5 times larger than the typical unemployment shock, depending on race/gender, resulting in a 3.0% increase in mortality rate and a 0.5% drop in life expectancy over the next 15 years for the overall American population. We also predict that the shock will disproportionately affect African-Americans and women, over a short horizon, while white men might suffer large consequences over longer horizons. These figures translate in a staggering 0.89 million additional deaths over the next 15 years.
Read more: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf