Commonground
Senior Moderator
AUG 28, 2026
Civilisation is a magnificent thing — the apps, the ETFs, the geopolitics, the artisanal oat milk. It is also, at all times, roughly nine missed meals from turning into a very motivated mob. Every state, however sophisticated, is really just a promise that dinner will show up tomorrow. Renege on that promise and watch how quickly your beautiful institutions lose an argument with a hungry crowd. So when J.P. Morgan titled its August 2026 report Food security is national security, that wasn’t a clever metaphor. It was the oldest fact in politics, wearing a Bloomberg terminal.
And the facts don’t fit on a fridge magnet. The FAO counts roughly 2.1 billion people — one in four of us — living with moderate or severe food insecurity in 2025, and 645 million going properly hungry. The hunger rate has technically improved (7.8%, down from 8.6% in 2022), which is the statistical equivalent of your ship taking on slightly less water. Underneath, the plumbing is getting worse: outside China, the ranks of the severely food-insecure swelled by about 165 million between 2020 and 2025, with the World Bank pencilling in another 35–70 million by 2028.
Now the part that should interest anyone with a portfolio and not just a conscience. This is no longer a faraway problem for faraway places. A Washington Post–Ipsos poll this year found 66% of Americans now think groceries are unaffordable — up from 45% in February — and that includes most households pulling in over $100,000. Food insecurity has quietly stopped being something that happens to other people and started being the number that ambushes you at the till. It’s not a headline anymore. It’s your receipt.
Continued:
themacrobutler.substack.com
Civilisation is a magnificent thing — the apps, the ETFs, the geopolitics, the artisanal oat milk. It is also, at all times, roughly nine missed meals from turning into a very motivated mob. Every state, however sophisticated, is really just a promise that dinner will show up tomorrow. Renege on that promise and watch how quickly your beautiful institutions lose an argument with a hungry crowd. So when J.P. Morgan titled its August 2026 report Food security is national security, that wasn’t a clever metaphor. It was the oldest fact in politics, wearing a Bloomberg terminal.
And the facts don’t fit on a fridge magnet. The FAO counts roughly 2.1 billion people — one in four of us — living with moderate or severe food insecurity in 2025, and 645 million going properly hungry. The hunger rate has technically improved (7.8%, down from 8.6% in 2022), which is the statistical equivalent of your ship taking on slightly less water. Underneath, the plumbing is getting worse: outside China, the ranks of the severely food-insecure swelled by about 165 million between 2020 and 2025, with the World Bank pencilling in another 35–70 million by 2028.
Now the part that should interest anyone with a portfolio and not just a conscience. This is no longer a faraway problem for faraway places. A Washington Post–Ipsos poll this year found 66% of Americans now think groceries are unaffordable — up from 45% in February — and that includes most households pulling in over $100,000. Food insecurity has quietly stopped being something that happens to other people and started being the number that ambushes you at the till. It’s not a headline anymore. It’s your receipt.
Continued:
THE HUNGRY DECADE
Empires starve before they go broke — and when the food runs out, survival lands on every kitchen table.
themacrobutler.substack.com