Snowy Owl
Retired in 2010, In Memoriam
Health officials discuss worst-case bird flu scenariosNorthern Neck health director says the region is not prepared for a deadly bird flu outbreak.
By FRANK DELANO
The director of the 10-county rural health district that includes the Northern Neck said the region doesn't have the personnel or infrastructure to deal with a deadly flu epidemic, if one strikes.
Dr. Thomas Irungu of the Three Rivers Health District said an outbreak of avian flu could sicken 41,000 people in the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. Depending on the severity of the virus, 4,500 people in the 10-county region might require hospitalization and 900 might die, he said.
"It sounds like bad news all the way. All the information we have so far is pointing toward a pandemic that will make ill 30 percent of the population and last for weeks," Irungu said at an April 25 public information session at Rappahannock Community College in Warsaw.
"It would affect all businesses, schools, utilities, governments, agencies and organizations. How will they operate without 30 percent of their work force?" he asked.
The information session was one of several held around the state late last month to educate the public and health-care workers about what could happen if the bird flu came to North America, and started spreading to people.
At present, Irungu said, avian flu has been found in Asia, Africa and Europe. Since the H5N1 virus was first identified in 2003, the World Health Organization says 204 people have been stricken and 113 of them have died.
Researchers think migrating birds will soon bring the virus to North America.
"I don't know how much warning we'll have when it hits Alaska. In 1918, Spanish influenza killed 40 million people worldwide in one year. It spread from the East Coast to the West Coast in seven days," Irungu said.
At present, human infections of avian flu seem to have been caused by direct contact with diseased poultry--not from person-to-person transmission. But Irungu and public-health agencies such as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention worry that the virus could mutate to allow person-to-person infection.
If a humanly contagious form of the virus appeared, it would take months to develop a vaccine to combat it, Irungu said. And once a vaccine became available, Irungu said, it would be in short supply. Health agencies would have to decide which segments of the population would get it first, as well as the complex logistics of vaccinating millions of people.
Irungu said state and federal governments are stockpiling the anti-flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza. But those expensive drugs may not be effective for millions of victims, he said.
Because the first doses of both drugs must be given with 48 hours of exposure, "it's going to be a challenge for everyone to see a doctor within two days," Irungu said.
Tamilflu is also a seven-day treatment. Another exposure would require another seven-day treatment. Irungu said no one knows the side effects of multiple Tamiflu doses over a long period.
Irungu said that in the event of a flu epidemic, ill persons would be encouraged to diagnose and treat their symptoms at home rather than go to doctors' offices.
He said public-health workers in his district are preparing for the worst by assessing needs, educating the public, meeting with health-care workers and recruiting "everyone we can get" for a Reserve Medical Corps.
The corps will consist of retired doctors and nurses and others with medical experience who will go to work if an epidemic strikes. Committees to coordinate flu preparations and response will also be established in each locality, he said.
This summer, he said, the 10-county health district will hold a summit devoted to flu preparations and conduct table-top exercises to model outbreaks and responses.
"Planning for the flu has to be international, national, state, local, public and private," he said. "We've made a lot of progress since 1918 in treating people with flu, but every organization and family needs to prepare for it. Hope is not a strategy."
