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Thailand 7/30 - 8/01

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Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

FrenchieGirl said:
Thank you. So they do blood tests... which are sure to bring false negatives... Sigh. I'm going to have to programme prepping outings a little more often now instead of going for a well-deserved holiday.
Blood tests are not "sure to bring false negatives". It depends how long a person has had the virus
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

which if done as they come in the door, will be a false negitive. Or are they staying home sick for 2 weeks before they decide to see a doc?
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Thailand wants to detect bird flu cases so why wouldn't nasopharyngeal aspirates and endotracheal aspirates be used for a rapid diagnosis?
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Before we can identify clusters, we have to have 'confirmed' cases. Only one WHO confirmed case (death) so far. I don't believe any other "positive" results have yet been released for survivors or dead individuals.
Florida1 is right. We must wait and watch, the situation will unfold one way or another. The longer we go without deaths, the better the news will be. Either it will not be H5N1 or else we are seeing a strain that has a lower CFR.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Thank you Florida1 for a note of sanity. Everytime the pendulum swings the forum(s) go crazy. (Watch what happens with the recent study that 'suggests' a pandemic may not be immenent.)

We are suffering from a serious lack of information - period! Some of the lack may be due to government mismanagement or tampering, but the fact is, we (and these governments) don't have enough scientific, objective facts to reach any meaningful conclusions. So, why the hyper-reactions (one way or another) to every news story that hits the wires?

Don't get me wrong. I'm a believer that H5N1 will produce a pandemic, and sooner rather than later. But, I'm trying not to ride the media roller coaster.

Just my opinion. - Snick
 
What sort of tests?

What sort of tests?

tsalagiT said:
Its not specualtion at all to know that the blood tests are worthless. We already went through this in Turkey.
Most of the reports coming out of Thailand are describing blood tests being done, but that could be due to inaccurate reporting.

In the case of the 17 yr-old that died, it was his "phlegm" test that came out positive for H5N1. Also, there are references in a few articles to throat swabs (like here in Sukhothai):

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=22824&postcount=15

I think it's difficult to say from our vantage point whether the Thai authorities are engaging in "Goldilocks testing" -- there are some reports of throat swabs being done, so at least some of the testing appears to be being done correctly -- perhaps most or all of it is.
 
Relatives of bf victim decide against requesting an autopsy

Relatives of bf victim decide against requesting an autopsy

Machine-translated from Thai:

Relatives victim bird flu not send corpse examine prove place hospital [?]
31 กรกฎาคม 2549 18:24 น.

Father dead person from bird flu change mind not send corpse child male 17 year hospital [?] check/survey prove identify reason come to terms with and then not require/demand child hurt from procedure check/examine prove.

Krun Thep [Bangkok] business online: [Name?] director-general Dept. of Medical Science mention case relatives dead person from bird flu place province Phichit will corpse dead person from bird flu case recent age 17 year from district [?] province Phichit come check/survey prove place hospital [?] in date 31 July because there is information doubt that could not gain and lose life from bird flu that can acknowledge information place relatives dead person not believe that male 17 year lose life because infected with bird flu but believe in that lose life because medicine prevent convulse/twitch that inject in among treatment. [??]

Because team doctor can report that patient there is uncle convulsion/twitch doctor therefore can inject together convulse/twitch but patient there is be in a severe condition to be at already and symptom bad increase afterwards not long also lose life and when send phlegm/mucus examine/diagnose verify also find that is bird flu from viruse H5N1 also.

[Name?] say that of parent there is information doubt will send corpse for prove search fact/truth also be that can which case aforementioned by Dept. of Medical Science can prepare data/information result check/examine analyze virus from sample of dead person case this keep in order that explain or if there is accusation keep and then that result check from sample virus storage from organ that break/divide differ 3 sample be effective be identical that infected with bird flu and room [?] of Dept. of Medical Science standardized World Health Organization (WHO) provided that by relatives patient not believe in result check analyze from room [?] also not know will explain how.

Mr. [name?] father of male 17 year dead person from bird flu interview when time 18.00 o'clock today (31 July) that change one's mind not send corpse child male doctor hospital [?] check verify because not require child hurt from check again as for cause lose life that doubt former times self come to terms with and then thing that require at this time is fee cremate because specification [?] duty corpse in day Sunday 5 August this time 15.00 o'clock place Wat [temple] Song Tam district [? - ทับคล้อ] province Phichit.

http://www.bangkokbiznews.com/2006/08/01/w001_125039.php?news_id=125039
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

One paragraph (4th paragraph) from a long article (maybe I will have time to translate the whole thing tomorrow) from the 27th about the testing done on the young man that died...

Machine-translated from Thai:

Oh no 1 case [?] bird flu combine "fever blood go out" [dengue] youth 17 - place province Phichit
วันที่ 27 กรกฎาคม พ.ศ. 2549 ปีที่ 16 ฉบับที่ 5719

(...)

Mr. Pinit say more afterwards send blood test again 3 times date 20, 21 and 22 July find that blood there is content strong more than usual and amount detail blood smaller/less is signal indicate that likely to be fever choose go out [dengue] also however by doctor consider bird flu as well therefore when patient lose life then send phlegm/mucus examine place Dept. of Medical Science at date 24 July result examine at morning today [July 27] find is bird flu so dead person case this could be possible that is both bird flu together with fever blood go out [dengue] which never appear before in Thailand and throughout the world which team doctor look after well most and not have any conceal data for control disease Ministry of Public Health send division investigate transfer immediately down go place village group 11 district [?] control person connect cooperate person die 3 persons at present eat medicine resist virus total and symptom also normal will watch/guard carefully against more 14 days anyway case dead person case this will not blame someone because symptom [?] not obvious besides also there is person Phichit 2 insider/member area district Meuang Nam chicken that die due to not known cause eat at present [?] careful symptom.

(...)

http://www.rssthai.com/reader.php?t=local&r=6216

Thai young man.JPG
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

This is about 5 miles from where a suspected bird flu death was rumored to have occurred two days ago in Uttaradit.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/01Aug2006_news09.php
Phinij: Two patients don't have H5N1 [SIZE=-1]But Nakhon Phanom officials say otherwise[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]POST REPORTERS[/SIZE]
<!--img--> <!--/img--> Two out of six villagers suspected to have contracted bird flu in Nakhon Phanom have tested positive for influenza A, not H5N1, caretaker Public Health Minister Phinij Jarusombat said yesterday.

The minister inspected the bird flu situation in tambon Ban Klang of Nakhon Phanom's Muang district yesterday and later told senior health officials in Bangkok of the results of laboratory tests on the two patients in the bird flu-hit northertheastern province.

However, his statement contradicted information obtained from local authorities yesterday that the two villagers had caught the lethal bird flu virus.

Earlier, H5N1 was found in samples from chicken carcasses, making Nakhon Phanom the second province to be hit by the current round of bird flu after the central province of Phichit. This is the fourth avian flu outbreak since January 2004, with one human fatality so far.

A mobile laboratory with two specialists from the Medical Services Department was to arrive at Nakhon Phanom Hospital yesterday evening to help local health officials cope with the workload as many people were found to have come into contact with chicken carcasses.

There were reports that 765 people in the area had come into contact with dead chickens, Mr Phinij said, adding that these people had been placed under surveillance for 14 days.

Meanwhile, the authorities have blamed used egg trays from Laos for the spread.

The Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry yesterday instructed governors in border provinces to block used egg trays from entering into the country.

Charal Trinvuthipong, Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister's assistant, admitted that the failure to control the movement of used egg trays was a mistake.

He also expressed concern over open-system farming, which he said represented a dangerous gap in the control measures.

Almost all the farms in the central region have switched to closed-system farming but some farms in the northeastern provinces are still open-system.

Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan said the agency would issue a directive requiring fowl raisers to report mysterious deaths of their poultry within 12 hours. Those failing to do so would face up to two months in jail and/or a 4,000 baht fine.

Nakhon Phanom Governor Nikhom Kerdkhanmak said about 1,000 soldiers and marine officers were sent to cull the remaining 100,000 chickens in tambon Ban Klang. Over 200,000 had been killed.

In nearby Mukdahan province, checkpoints were set up to control poultry movements in the province and adjacent areas. Officials were instructed to keep a close watch on poultry movements, particularly those in Nakhon Phanom.

In Uttaradit, livestock officials yesterday inspected carcasses of about 50 free-range ducks found dumped in a canal in tambon Had Song Khwae in Tron district.

Meanwhile, Thawat Suntharajarn, chief of the Disease Control Department, said the number of people under surveillance for bird flu had reached 134, with Phichit province having the highest number of cases at 44. Initial tests on them had come back negative for bird flu, however.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Phang-nga, way to the south, is sounding really paranoid. Ironically, it's so far south that it's closer to the big Indonesian cluster in Medan (370 miles) than it is to Phichit (550 miles). This is the second day they've gone around randomly spraying farms. With what, I have no idea. Something's up.

http://www.thaisnews.com/news_detail.php?newsid=181733
Officials from Phang-Nga Livestock Development Office sprayed farmers and villagers' poultry farms at Ban Thachood in Thakuapa district. They also gave out leaflets to educate villagers to be aware of the disease and preventive measures. This follows the authority's action plan in acting against the Avian Influenza or bird flu during June 15th to July 31st as a case was found in 2004. Random sampling of poultry in 8 districts were also taken for lab tests which will get results in two weeks time. Even though no case is found in Phang-Nga, the authority reminds people to report to authorities if they find poultry dieing of no cause.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

The red zone has become the red country.
http://nationmultimedia.com/2006/08/01/headlines/headlines_30010082.php
Bird-flu alert for entire country

As the number of suspected bird-flu cases increases nationwide, Caretaker Agriculture Minister Sudarat Keyuraphan yesterday declared all 76 provinces of the country animal epidemic control areas, with stricter rules on the transport of poultry and handling of dead birds.

The move follows the mass culling of 300,000 chickens at 78 farms in Nakhon Phanom province on the weekend.

The Public Health Ministry is closely monitoring 765 people who took part in the slaughtering, fearing they might have been exposed to the potentially deadly bird-flu virus.

Caretaker Public Health Minister Pinij Charusombat said all 633 people involved in the culling, plus 111 farm workers, 18 people in the families that operated the farms and three other villagers were put on the provincial bird-flu watch list.

The minister was speaking during a trip to Na Klang district in the north-eastern province where the H5N1 virus was detected.

All 765 people on the list would be monitored for 14 days.

So far, six people had developed a high fever, Pinij said. Two of them had influenza symptoms and had received oseltamivir, the only anti-viral drug that can be used to treat people infected with H5N1. The other four had tested negative for the influenza virus.

He said surveillance and disinfecting in the province had to be stepped up.

The Medical Science Department yesterday sent a mobile laboratory unit to the Nakhon Phanom provincial hospital to conduct further tests on suspected cases.

Pinij ordered the province's public health office to set up a bird-flu advisory team to assist and give advice to community hospitals on how to detect the H5N1 virus in humans and on the appropriate use of oseltamivir.

Besides Nakhon Phanom's Naklang sub-district, there were 45 suspected cases of human infection in 10 provinces, said Pratch Boonyawongwiroj, permanent secretary of the Public Health Ministry.

Fifteen cases were in Sukhothai, eight in Phitsanulok, seven in Suphan Buri, six in Phrae, three in other districts of Nakhon Phanom, and two in Phetchabun. Nakhon Nayok, Uttaradit and Phichit reported one case each.

Pratch said there were no other confirmed cases in Phichit besides that of a 17-year-old boy who died late last month.

Meanwhile, the Department of Livestock Development (DLD) yesterday blamed a "neighbouring country" as the source of the bird-flu outbreak in Nakhon Phanom.

Yukol Limlamthong, the DLD's director general, said his inquiries had found the H5N1 virus entered chicken farms in Nakhon Phanom via egg trays farm workers took from their customers on "the other side" [of the Mekong River].

The province is located on the bank of the Mekong River which forms a natural border between Thailand and Laos. The Lao government last week admitted that much of its poultry population had been infected with the bird-flu virus.

Sudarat yesterday banned the import of all chicken-farm accessories (including egg trays) from neighbouring countries. She said the outbreak in the province had been contained.

Yukol insisted the H5N1 virus had only been detected in Phichit's Bang Moon Nak district and Nakhon Phanom's Na Klang sub-district, despite reports of chickens dying of suspicious causes in other provinces. The first human bird-flu victim this year died in Phichit's Tap Klo district.

"I am also wondering why there are confirmed human cases in areas where the virus is not found in poultry. Medical doctors have to investigate," he said in a telephone interview.

Under the Agriculture Ministry's latest epidemic control measures, anyone found transporting birds illegally, dumping poultry carcasses in natural waterways or burying dead poultry without informing livestock officials would face a fine or jail.
 
Chiang Rai customs on the lookout for vaccine smugglers from China/Laos

Chiang Rai customs on the lookout for vaccine smugglers from China/Laos

Machine-translated from Thai:

Customs [?] very check deep intercept smuggle bring vaccine bird flu enter Thailand
โดย ผู้จัดการออนไลน์ 1 สิงหาคม 2549 09:24 น.

Authority customs regularly barrier harbor very province Chiang Rai cooperate authority public health check deep goods/cargo all kinds that every arrive with cargo ship from China and Laos include luggage of persons take all in order to intercept smuggle bring vaccine H5N1 place might be mixed come with fresh vegetables and fruit.

In order that after there is information that there is person try smuggle bring vaccine aforementioned come apply to fighting cock and use inject chicken that [?] keep after occurance bird flu outbreak which previously authority once check confiscate vaccine can often time price much hundred million baht.

http://www.manager.co.th/Home/ViewNews.aspx?NewsID=9490000097753&Keyword=%e4%a2%e9%cb%c7%d1%b4%b9%a1
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Caretaker Public Health Minister Pinij Charusombat said all 633 people involved in the culling, plus 111 farm workers, 18 people in the families that operated the farms and three other villagers were put on the provincial bird-flu watch list.

The minister was speaking during a trip to Na Klang district in the north-eastern province where the H5N1 virus was detected.

All 765 people on the list would be monitored for 14 days.So far, six people had developed a high fever, Pinij said. Two of them had influenza symptoms and had received oseltamivir, the only anti-viral drug that can be used to treat people infected with H5N1. The other four had tested negative for the influenza virus.


These statements are extremely interesting. They come from an authoritative source. He clearly defines the case definition of high risk (involved with the culling of birds). We know that they had potential exposure within the past week. Less than 1% are sick now, 4 had negative tests for influenza. (Which implies they have done rapid testing for influenza, incl H5N1 - needs verification) For the two receiving oseltamivir, we do not know if they tested positive for any type of influenza. He provides a time frame (14 days) to follow the exposed group. These people are experiencing now a serious economic crisis, but they at least seem to have the benefit of robust public health surveillance.
CR
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Christian Rivers said:
For the two receiving oseltamivir, we do not know if they tested positive for any type of influenza. He provides a time frame (14 days) to follow the exposed group. These people are experiencing now a serious economic crisis, but they at least seem to have the benefit of robust public health surveillance.
One report says that they have tested pos for influenza A:
vaffie (post #69) said:
Two out of six villagers suspected to have contracted bird flu in Nakhon Phanom have tested positive for influenza A, not H5N1, caretaker Public Health Minister Phinij Jarusombat said yesterday....

However, his statement contradicted information obtained from local authorities yesterday that the two villagers had caught the lethal bird flu virus.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

in the last 10 days it seems we have seen a whirlwind of activity in thailand. i cannot help but think that it is a show to save face. contrived in an attempt to appear extremely concerned over a problem that was ignored, and denied. now that the numbers are beginning to surface and the casualties increasingly hard to hide in other data, we are seeing the thai version of a dog and pony show.

the numbers of suspected cases dont appear to be increasing at a rate (critical mass, in my area) that suggest easy transmission. and if the test are being administered and read correctly there is virtually nil transmission rate. maybe thats where i have a hard time believing the thai official reports. their countrymen are virtually swimming in a quagmire of h5n1 infection and the numbers are 1.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

stormsailor1981 said:
***snipped***
the numbers of suspected cases dont appear to be increasing at a rate (critical mass, in my area) that suggest easy transmission.
***snipped**

Are you a Thai resident? If so, are you free to expound upon your personal experience.

If I misinterpreted your post, my apology is offered.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

AnneZ said:
Blood tests are not "sure to bring false negatives". It depends how long a person has had the virus

Yes of course. Hmmm... Then if this blood test is positive after 14 days, then should one think that the sick person is one of the lucky few to be alive, to be part of the other side of the percentage of the CFR? Or even that they caught a milder version?
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

FrenchieGirl said:
Yes of course. Hmmm... Then if this blood test is positive after 14 days, then should one think that the sick person is one of the lucky few to be alive, to be part of the other side of the percentage of the CFR? Or even that they caught a milder version?

Mildness is a relative term. A survivor is statistically more likely to have had a milder version than a non mild version.

A review of symptoms and/or further tests would give an indication as to whether it was a mild version or not.
 
Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

Re: Thailand 7/30 & 7/31

All's relative, yes. So either a milder version, or a stronger body? Nowhere do I remember having seen that a mutation to a milder type H5N1 was identified. As you say, it would be good to have a list/statistics of the symptoms suffered by those being closely watched whose blood tests would have proven positive after a more or less long incubation period... I do hope they do many more than just a "few" tests with nasopharyngeal or endotracheal aspirates in addition to the blood tests. If the US 7th fleet starts being well equipped with respect to bird flu tests Navy Sets Up Bird Flu Labs and is navigating in the area, perhaps they could help?
 
BF confirmed in fighting cock in Nakhon Si Thammarat in southern Thailand

BF confirmed in fighting cock in Nakhon Si Thammarat in southern Thailand

Nakhon Si Thammarat is in the south on the Malay peninsula.

Machine-translated from Thai:

Expert chicken Meuang Kon Pa Waa [?] province Yan Haak find virus point the south order close entirely all
โดย ผู้จัดการออนไลน์ 1 สิงหาคม 2549 14:09 น.

Nakhon Si Thammarat - Livestock Nakhon Si Thammarat hurry make information understanding spread of bird flu in community people [?] fighting cock loud order close every not [?] find there is spread point down to in area the south.

When time 10.00 o'clock today (1 August) Mr. veterinarian [name] city big livestock province Nakhon Si Thammarat declare even though prevention and prepare readiness in case of find virus bird flu in area that can there is preparation information every point place about poultry which summary can be there is poultry in province total 69,347 of is type farm 298 of field cockfighting and 46 of which be regarded as very much most also that can add poultry estimate 4 million bodies in every type manage watch/guard carefully can manage in body of committee which there is both personnel that be ready to enter area destroy poultry immediately provided that find in case of suspected and there is prepare chemicals disinfect together with equipment thoroughly 24 hours and there is car mobile [?] go out check virus [?] immediately provided that take inform case chicken die.

"Thing that is problem to be at some is fighting cock in Nakhon Si Thammarat which format [?] and fight that will be type of 'chicken spur' when enter the field fight bet that will too die or not die also too handicapped person [?] then also not decree register history personal chicken when field cockfighting inside Nakhon Si Thammarat all 46 place well-known that very much most in at present will must there is measure in look after oneself is make note go in and out of chicken method manage disinfect to release field omit be free not less than 7 day which think that these not enough assure that forehead find virus appear in part center part lower all not [?] in Nakhon Si Thammarat will contact correct close immediately in order that safety."

[?] province Nakhon Si Thammarat say blame in Nakhon Si Thammarat when year 2547 (2004) once find virus test bird total 5 district is Meuang Hua Ta Rai [?] Yai Toong [Thung Yai?] [?] will must be correct strict in invetigate watch/guard carefully specially if find case suspected will must destroy and in [?] be similar forbid movement poultry all kinds.

When Mr. [name] medicine [?] science public health office public health province Nakhon Si Thammarat identify that at present office public happy/pleased along with body people place prepare is team manage each field medical supplies be ready thoroughly 24 hours which at present also not appear that there is person suspected infected with anyhow while disease watch/guard carefully that feature 'fever blood go out' [dengue] which there is patient at present only 350 cases lose live 2 cases when compare with year 2548 (2005) high to 5,000 cases considered decrease very much as for disease hand foot rot that that also not appear that find virus also.

http://www.manager.co.th/Local/View...000097930&Keyword=%e4%a2%e9%cb%c7%d1%b4%b9%a1

Nakhon Si Thammarat Province:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakhon_Si_Thammarat_Province
 
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