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Thailand 7/20 - 7/23

Theresa42

Theresa42

New member
The last report I've seen says there are 7 bf suspects from Phichit...

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21106&postcount=25

...but I count 10:

Thab Khlo district: 3 -- 2 children (7 & 12), 1 adult (32F)
Taphan Hin district: 2 -- 2 sisters (3F & 4F)
Unknown district(s): 5 -- 3 children between ages 3 & 5; 2 adults aged 57 & 72.
Lyro said:
Two children, aged 7 and 12, from Thab Khlo district, and a 32-year-old woman showed no signs of the lethal H5N1 virus, said Dr Pratch Boonyawongwiroj, the ministry's deputy permanent secretary.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=20706&postcount=13
Click to expand...
MHSC said:
The two girls [3 & 4 years old], who reportedly fell ill in a community in Taphan Hin district where chickens have been dying, were being treated in an isolation ward pending their test results.

These two new cases brought the total number of suspected human bird-flu cases in the province to seven.

The other five cases are three children aged between three and five and two adults, one 57 and the other 72.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21106&postcount=25

Ages of the two sisters:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21161&postcount=9
Click to expand...
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Between Nakhon Ratchasima and Phichit, there are at least 44 suspected cases in Thailand at present. Consider that the last four years have only witnessed 22 confirmed cases combined. Not the greatest sign.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

I wonder what's going on in Nakhon Ratchasima -- haven't seen any word on those 40+ people who were put under observation/quarantined....
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Do any of the articles say what signs or symptoms make them suspected of having H5N1?
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Last novermber or december there were a few hundred people under observation in Thailand and only a few of them tested positive. I think they are quite cautious in Thailand hence the high number of 'suspected' cases, few of which will turn out to be real.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

The rule in these countries is simply that mildly symptomatic infections or ones that recover quickly are never tested or confirmed. H5N1 does not have the reported 60% lethality that the WHO says it does. In fact it may be a 10th of that much. There may be 20 or more times the number of infections than we know about. It's very informative to read the study on monkeys done with the Qinghai strain. Most of them only had a mild fever and recovered.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?


If that's true, why did the study that tested people in the area of the intense birdflu outbreak in Indonesia reveal no one with antibodies against birdflu?

I would like to see some actual evidence for what you believe.
 
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Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Mellie said:
Vaffie,

If that's true, why did the study that tested people in the area of the intense birdflu outbreak in Indonesia reveal no one with antibodies against birdflu?

I would like to see some actual evidence for what you believe.
Click to expand...
If there was evidence, would you be asking me? Besides, H5N1 is not a very antigenic virus--that's why they're having so much trouble creating vaccines that produce a good antibody response. And is there anything about Indonesia's "testing" that gives you any certainty about what they find?
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Mild cases of H5N1 were apparently not missed in Cambodia.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/mar2706cases.html

Mild H5N1 cases weren't missed in Cambodian outbreak

Mar 27, 2006 (CIDRAP News) ? Researchers who looked for mild or asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 avian influenza following an outbreak in Cambodia last year didn't find any, challenging the view that human cases have gone undetected, according to findings presented last week.
The research described Mar 20 at the International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases in Atlanta implies that surveillance for human cases might be more effective than some experts assumed, according to a story by the Canadian Press (CP). However, the findings also imply that the case-fatality rate for avian flu is higher than some experts thought.
Dr. Philippe Buchy and his colleagues at the Institut Pasteur in Phnom Penh last spring tested blood samples from 351 residents of a Cambodian village where poultry and one person had died of avian flu, the CP reported. No signs of antibodies to H5N1 were found in the samples, indicating the residents had not suffered even mild cases of avian flu.
Some of the people tested had "significant" exposure to poultry or infected people, the story said. For example, a doctor who inserted a tube down an H5N1 patient's windpipe without wearing any protective gear did not show any antibodies indicating infection. The same was true for other healthcare workers, including two veterinarians who had autopsied H5N1-infected birds. The healthcare workers did not know at the time they were dealing with avian flu cases.
"We didn't find any cases of H5N1, so nobody seems to have been asymptomatic or with mild symptoms during this outbreak in Cambodia," Buchy told the CP.
On the bright side, Buchy was quoted as saying the data indicate the virus still finds it difficult to jump from poultry to humans.
Dr. Nancy Cox, head of the influenza branch at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, concurred with Buchy, but added: "On the other side of the coin, it means that the case-fatality rate is still very high. And that is a negative thing."
Experts have suggested that the current case fatality rate for avian flu, about 56%, could be inaccurate because milder or asymptomatic cases have not been identified.
"The work in Cambodia is extremely important because it shows that we really aren't missing that much," Cox told the CP. However, she added that it is important to conduct research on a larger scale to determine whether mild or asymptomatic cases are occurring, and said such studies are planned.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

You may have a better sense of the number of people who have been suspected of having bird flu but no additional info has been made available with those numbers. Several times during the spring, reports stated there were suspected cases that were to be followed- but no additional info following. If there are numbers of people who are asympomatic and/ or experience a lighter case of and recover, then indeed it would seem that would be very userful and helpful info. It would have to be reflected in the CFR. It seems like all the pieces are not fitting. Having a high CFR pushed through the media would/ could directly effect the public in general's reaction to this issue- both in positive and negatvie ways.
 
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Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

You make some good points, Color my quilt. Apparently, no country wants to EVER admit bird flu patients. When they do, it is usually because of an overzealous doctor or because a local newsman somehow gets hold of the information. If a case tests positive, no one is ever told. It remains just an internet article that I or someone else have copied, with never any follow-up. (And let me tell you--it's worse with poultry and bird deaths--you have no idea how many thousands of mass deaths that were never followed up.) Only for very short periods of time do governments become open about suspected or confirmed bird flu patients--for a short period of time Vietnam and Thailand did, and for a short time, Turkey and Egypt did. Indonesia reports, but it has a weak central government and a handful of vocal doctors in a handful of major cities like Jakarta and Semarang who like to report to the press everything, and the press happily publishes it so that they can get readers in those areas where people can and have time to read. Outside of those four or five cities, bird flu infections of humans are never reported anywhere else in the country or the world, unless by mistake, they send the sample to a WHO testing body like Azerbaijan and Iraq did. Those were accidents made by people who didn't actually think that the results would be positive and did it just to pacify their own populations. China will still have us believe that it's only had a handful of infections after ten years. Personally, I have no idea why they report anything in the first place, but I've realized that it may be a means of reminding the public to obey their instructions about culling poultry.
 
11 bf suspects from Phichit province as of 3:00 p.m., 07/20/06

11 bf suspects from Phichit province as of 3:00 p.m., 07/20/06

The Nakhon Sawan Office of Disease Prevention & Control (DPC) covers the following provinces:

Nakhon Sawan
Uthani Thani
Kamphaeng Phet
Phichit

http://dpc8.ddc.moph.go.th/

According to their latest suspected bf cases spreadsheet, there are currently 11 suspected bf cases (people presenting with pneumonia symptoms, I think) in Phichit (พิจิตร).

http://dpc8.ddc.moph.go.th/db8/disease/04_bird_day/up/group4_tw1mtE720072006.pdf

Table 1 on this page enumerates all suspected bf cases (suspicious pneumonia cases) from the 4 provinces between Jan 1, 2005 - July 20, 2006. Note the 11 "on investigation" cases from Phichit province.

Table 2 enumerates all suspected bf cases (suspicious pneumonia cases) this year.

It's not clear if these 11 cases "on investigation" include/are the same as the 10 reported bf suspects we have seen in news reports.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Now, before anyone goes nuts, remember that these are just random comments by a poorly informed outside observer--me.

Do you guys realize what the problem with these reports really is? Thailand has the freest press in the region. They report more than any other press in that part of Asia. What that means is that if more than 2/3 of Thailand is reporting poultry dying and people becoming sick, the odds are very high that all their more secretive neighbors--whose borders are pretty meaningless and created by the colonial powers of old to divide up the place for control purposes, are experiencing the same thing. Extrapolation of this then to the region means the following.

If we assume that half of suspected cases are true and that rates of human infection are the same outside the two provinces getting a lot of coverage for some reason--which I can't see any reason why they should be all that different--although it looks like these two provinces might have been hit the hardest first, that means that there would be 75 bird flu patients per day in Thailand alone. In a week, this region (Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Vietnam), based on population sizes, would be approaching a rate of 1600 patients/week!
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Correct me if I am wrong .
Thailand has the freest press but they are also the most cautious. Treating many people with unusual pneumonia as suspected bird flu until results show it was not bird flu.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

AnneZ said:
Correct me if I am wrong .
Thailand has the freest press but they are also the most cautious. Treating many people with unusual pneumonia as suspected bird flu until results show it was not bird flu.
Click to expand...

True, they're cautious--there's no denying that. But they've also been cautious about reporting anything in the past. I say that they have the freest press, but they don't have a free press--it was only last fall that they made threats to reporters who mentioned bird flu without government permission. Remember too that for two years they denied bird flu was in the country, and then gave up and admitted it, only to again in November after they had publicly said that waterfowl throughout the country were carrying the virus asymptomatically, say that they had 'eradicated' it.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

We'll just have to keep a close eye on the region as always.

What is Europe doing about returning tourist from the region? That may give us a clue. Also watch the west coast of the US for pnemonia cases.

Hell I guess we won't get any hard data or admissions till people are droping like flies far away from Asia.

I love to speculate and extrapolate from the little data we get however this is wearing me out.

How are we really going to know anything till the cats out of the bag or the birds flown the coup? ;)
 
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Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Here are some numbers to think about---

Since Jan 1 2006, There have been at least 115 human H5N1 cases worldwide. Sixty-six have died with a CFR of 57%. Of these dead individuals there was an average of 5.4 days between symptom onset and hospitalization. And each only survived an average of 3.0 days after hospitalization.

Implications for Thailand: Either there are a lot of people sick with a different strain of H5N1 that is not as deadly, or most of them do not have H5N1. If these suspected cases have H5N1, we should being seeing a lot of fatalities by now.
 
Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

Re: Thailand - 10 bf suspects from Phichit province?

It can't be good to have all that water spreading all those dead chickens' feces into people's homes and streets. Influenza loves water.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/21Jul2006_news12.php
WEATHER

Prachin Buri hit by floods, many roads impassable

Continuing downpours worsened floods in three districts of Prachin Buri as many roads became impassable yesterday. Prachantakham district was the worst hit, while widespread flooding was also reported in Na Di and Kabin Buri districts, officials said.

Communities around the old Kabin Buri market were hit by a second wave of flash floods in recent weeks, with water rising to 1.2 metres following heavy downpours that lasted for several hours yesterday.

In nearby Prachantakham district, officials struggled to place warning signs along Suwanasorn road to mark the edge of the road, which was totally submerged.

In the southern province of Surat Thani, flash floods have been driving villagers to higher ground.

Damage in Ban Ban Yod of Phrasaeng district is the heaviest in a decade, with more than 80% of farmland under water.

A house was swept away by floods while 26 fishing ponds, vast areas of rubber plantations and many cash crop farms have been ruined. Damage is being assessed.

Apichai Chusom, a member of the Ban Bang Yod tambon administration organisation, said around 2,000 rai of land in the tambon was inundated.

It was the most destructive flood in the village in 10 years, he said.

The two-metre-deep water has also hampered officials' efforts to inspect the damage to palm, rubber and crop farms, and village roads.

Chai Buri, Wiang Sa and Khian Sa districts were also evacuating people after the Ta Pi river swelled and even burst its banks in some areas.

The Meteorological Department said rainfall would continue over most parts of the country in the days ahead.

The department said villagers in flood-prone locations in the northern provinces of Uttaradit and Phitsanulok, as well as Nakhon Ratchasima in the Northeast, should brace for heavy rain and possible flash floods.
 
Phichit - Ostrich farm closes to tourists as precautionary measure

Phichit - Ostrich farm closes to tourists as precautionary measure

Phichit - Ostrich farm closes to tourists as precautionary measure / no bf found on farm / still selling (& testing) ostrich meat

Machine-translated from Thai:

?เสธ.หนั่น? [name of farm?] announces close ostrich farm - stop accept tourist temporarily [?] bird

21 กรกฎาคม 2549 14:42 น.

Phichit - Ostrich farm/ranch ?เสธ.หนั่น? [name of farm] announce stop accept tourist temporarily after Phichit become area red alert vigilant bird flu until contact take care dark person enter - go out but also analyse bring ostrich sell can normally.

Reporter account from province Phichit inform that after happen problem effect from bird flu spread out is wide area in district branch district forest prosper province Phichit and lately still there is poultry die continuously can send affect against tourism also and because land ostrich farm of major general loudly spread [?] that remain that sub-district forest prosper must announce strict in task welcome tourist.

Mr. [name] [?] manager project ostrich farm [?] farm Phichit Thailand domestic animal or spread farm disclose that at present farm there is ostrich address in care 1200 ["bodies" - ostriches? number of visitors?] must strict in keeping quality in task bring up which in at this period find that area around [ostrich farm] there is poultry suspected be infected bird flu and die a great number.

Spread farm then ask for announce stop service in area restaurant and strict with people go in and out specially tourist that could bring virus from place outside enter but still welcome usually but will no entry in as for area that must get close with ostrich then must specify area excellent watch.

For task analyse ostrich meat also still analyse sell day every 8 body normally and as much as preceding also not find ostrich sick/dead or infect with by some means because by farm ostrich of ?เสธ.หนั่น? there is greatly knowledge supervision good quality but at this period ask for use measure control dark protect bird flu also.

http://www.manager.co.th/Local/View...000093593&Keyword=%e4%a2%e9%cb%c7%d1%b4%b9%a1
 
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