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Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

H

HenryN

Retired
<TABLE border=1><CAPTION>INFLUENZA VIRUSES ISOLATED BY
WHO/NREVSS Collaborating Laboratories
2008 - 2009 Season </CAPTION><TBODY><TR><TH id=header1 width=70>Week</TH><TH id=header2 width=90>A(H1)</TH><TH id=header3 width=70>A(Novel H1N1)</TH><TH id=header4 width=70>A(H3)</TH><TH id=header5 width=70>A(Could Not Subtyped)</TH><TH id=header6 width=70>A(Unk)</TH><TH id=header7 width=70>B </TH><TH id=header8 align=right>Total # Tested</TH><TH id=header9 align=right>% Positive</TH></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>40 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>8 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>2606 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>0.65 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>41 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>4 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>4 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>8 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>2633 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>0.84 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>42 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>13 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>15 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>2746 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.35 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>43 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>22 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>24 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>14 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3198 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.88 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>44 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>21 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>5 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3320 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.23 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>45 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>32 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>2 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>11 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3922 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.73 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>46 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>25 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>2 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4146 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.5 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>47 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>27 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>31 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>23 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4540 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>1.81 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>48 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>40 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>47 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>24 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4636 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>2.42 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>49 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>43 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>6 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>57 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>14 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5356 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>2.24 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>50 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>71 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>9 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>66 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>37 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5788 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>3.16 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>51 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>73 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>108 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>56 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6057 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>4.23 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>52 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>71 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>153 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>51 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5830 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>4.92 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>53 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>115 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>171 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>48 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6314 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>5.59 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>01 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>165 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>27 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>285 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>82 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6700 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>8.34 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>02 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>198 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>22 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>423 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>97 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6830 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>10.83 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>03 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>341 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>44 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>623 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>186 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>7601 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>15.71 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>04 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>558 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>77 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>898 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>359 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>9013 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>20.99 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>05 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>675 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>52 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1359 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>672 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11466 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.05 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>06 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>815 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>63 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1367 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>916 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>12592 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>25.1 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>07 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>818 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>65 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1068 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>894 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11502 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.74 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>08 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>676 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>59 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>1003 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>1097 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>11728 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.17 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>09 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>534 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>57 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>882 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>1086 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>10492 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>24.39 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>10 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>372 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>63 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>638 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>1002 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>9268 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>22.39 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>11 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>354 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>63 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>429 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>874 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>8308 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>20.7 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>12 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>258 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>41 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>283 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>604 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>7017 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>16.9 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>13 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>109 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>25 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>166 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>434 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>5418 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>13.55 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>14 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>88 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>31 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>126 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>256 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4803 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>10.45 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>15 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>37 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>0 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>28 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>1 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>73 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>166 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>4239 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>7.2 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>16 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>40 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>13 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>31 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>3 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>79 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>98 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>3751 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>7.04 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>17 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>495 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>799 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>558 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>196 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>372 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>596 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>22596 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>13.35 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>18 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>350 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>1286 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>367 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>162 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>801 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>350 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>22290 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>14.88 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>19 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>89 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>999 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>107 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>47 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>386 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>87 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>10946 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>15.67 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>20 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>38 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>1592 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>95 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>132 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>209 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>45 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>8941 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>23.61 </TD></TR><TR><TD headers=header1 align=right>21 </TD><TD headers=header2 align=right>4 </TD><TD headers=header3 align=right>1558 </TD><TD headers=header4 align=right>36 </TD><TD headers=header5 align=right>148 </TD><TD headers=header6 align=right>311 </TD><TD headers=header7 align=right>17 </TD><TD headers=header8 align=right>6679 </TD><TD headers=header9 align=right>31.05 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Latest CDC data leaves no doubt that swine H1N1 explosion is accelerating. Detection rate is well above seasonal flu at peak of flu season.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

1706 swine H1N1 in week 21 compared to 87 for seasonal H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B, combined.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

For the sake of understanding what I am seeing, is week 40 what the CDC considers the start of flu season?
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

wotan said:
For the sake of understanding what I am seeing, is week 40 what the CDC considers the start of flu season?
Click to expand...

I see three single "could not be subtyped" cases from before the novel H1N1 was discovered: One each in weeks 7, 14, 15. Are we to assume that those are just due t obad laboratory testing? The cases in weeks 14 and 15 could be the new H1N1 and just no one knew what to look for (and the samples are not preserved to test now), but week 7 could not be that.

Any idea about that week 7 case?
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

niman said:
For the sake of understanding what I am seeing, is week 40 what the CDC considers the start of flu season?
Click to expand...
Yes, week 40 is the 40th week of the calender year and the beginning of flu season for the northern hemisphere. As seen by the number of H1, H3 and influenza B isoaltes, flu season is over, and normally the weekly survey would be stopped for the summer.

However, even though state agencies are limiting testing and refusing to test peopel with OBVIOUS swine flu, teh frequency of positives has jumped to 31.05%, comapred to 23.61 for last week, or 25.01 on week 6 which is the middle of February and the peak of the flu season.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

alert said:
I see three single "could not be subtyped" cases from before the novel H1N1 was discovered: One each in weeks 7, 14, 15. Are we to assume that those are just due t obad laboratory testing? The cases in weeks 14 and 15 could be the new H1N1 and just no one knew what to look for (and the samples are not preserved to test now), but week 7 could not be that.

Any idea about that week 7 case?
Click to expand...
The earlier examples were swine flu cases that were do to swine expsoure (and did not spread).
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

niman said:
The earlier examples were swine flu cases that were do to swine expsoure (and did not spread).
Click to expand...

Possible. But the only swine this virus has been detected in were the ones in Alberta that were infected by a human.

I assume because they cannot subtype these samples, that they are not still available for testing. They could be the novel H1N1, or they could be just about anything else.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

alert said:
Possible. But the only swine this virus has been detected in were the ones in Alberta that were infected by a human.

I assume because they cannot subtype these samples, that they are not still available for testing. They could be the novel H1N1, or they could be just about anything else.
Click to expand...
WRONG. These cases were reported as H1N1 swine.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

alert said:
Possible. But the only swine this virus has been detected in were the ones in Alberta that were infected by a human.

I assume because they cannot subtype these samples, that they are not still available for testing. They could be the novel H1N1, or they could be just about anything else.
Click to expand...
Please. The week 7 isolate was described in week 8:

Novel Influenza A Viruses:

One case of human infection with a novel influenza A virus was reported by the Iowa Department of Public Health during week 8. The person was infected with a swine influenza A (H1N1) virus, and reported contact with ill pigs. Although human infection with swine influenza A virus resulting in illness appears to be uncommon, a few sporadic cases have been reported each year, usually among people in direct contact with ill pigs or who have been in places where pigs may have been present (e.g. agricultural fairs or farms). The sporadic cases of human infections with swine influenza viruses identified in recent years have not resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission or community outbreaks. Nonetheless, when cases are identified, CDC recommends thorough investigations to evaluate the extent of the outbreak and possible human-to-human transmission, as transmission patterns may change with changes in swine influenza viruses.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

Although human infection with swine influenza A virus resulting in illness appears to be uncommon, a few sporadic cases have been reported each year, usually among people in direct contact with ill pigs or who have been in places where pigs may have been present (e.g. agricultural fairs or farms). The sporadic cases of human infections with swine influenza viruses identified in recent years have not resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission or community outbreaks.
Click to expand...

Wow, hard to believe that was written just a few weeks ago, considering where we are now.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

alert said:
Possible. But the only swine this virus has been detected in were the ones in Alberta that were infected by a human.

I assume because they cannot subtype these samples, that they are not still available for testing. They could be the novel H1N1, or they could be just about anything else.
Click to expand...
Although this has been posted several times previously, it may be worth repeating. Samples that are not typable with human reagents are not human. They are are almost always swine H1N1 and happen several times a year. These untypable isolates rarely spread. The largest outbreak prior to the current outbreak was in 1976 at Fort Dix, NJ. The number infected were limited to a hand full of residents in NJ, and one soldier died. The outbreak ended long before the swine flu vaccine was ready.

The last time swine H1N1 was efficiently transmitted in a human population was 1918.
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

wotan said:
Wow, hard to believe that was written just a few weeks ago, considering where we are now.
Click to expand...
Actually, the CDC has been writing the same thing for years. Week 7 was just the most recent example. There were a few cases last summer (avian PB2 loves the heat).
 
Re: Swine H1N1 Explosion in United States

wotan said:
Wow, hard to believe that was written just a few weeks ago, considering where we are now.
Click to expand...
From week 46:

One case of human infection with a novel influenza A virus was reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services during week 46. The person was infected with a swine influenza A (H1N1) virus, and reported several swine exposures including close contact with an ill pig. Although human infection with swine influenza is uncommon, sporadic cases have occurred in many years, usually among people in direct contact with ill pigs or who have been in places where pigs may have been present (e.g. agricultural fairs, farms, or petting zoos). The sporadic cases of human infections with swine influenza viruses identified in recent years have not resulted in sustained human-to-human transmission or community outbreaks. Nonetheless, when cases are identified, CDC recommends thorough investigations to evaluate the extent of the outbreak and possible human to human transmission, as transmission patterns may change with changes in swine influenza viruses.
 
Devil's advocate

Devil's advocate

To be fair to the CDC though, they have said on numerous occasions that there are many more cases than their figures show, because of testing. Their weekly flu report seems to present all the data, including data showing that things are far worse than in prior years (like the "outpatient illness surveillance" chart).

CDC Weekly Flu Report

I think the government is happy that people are calming down, but most citizens don't take the flu seriously either. During the past week when I tried to bring the subject up to friends I was mostly ignored or told things like:

"It's only the flu"
"The flu is old news"

The next few weeks will be important. Most schools in the USA will be shut down by the end of next week, if they aren't already. Will that slow the flu down? Or will infections continue to increase?
 
Re: Devil's advocate

Re: Devil's advocate

Siegfried X said:
To be fair to the CDC though, they have said on numerous occasions that there are many more cases than their figures show, because of testing. Their weekly flu report seems to present all the data, including data showing that things are far worse than in prior years (like the "outpatient illness surveillance" chart).

CDC Weekly Flu Report

I think the government is happy that people are calming down, but most citizens don't take the flu seriously either. During the past week when I tried to bring the subject up to friends I was mostly ignored or told things like:

"It's only the flu"
"The flu is old news"

The next few weeks will be important. Most schools in the USA will be shut down by the end of next week, if they aren't already. Will that slow the flu down? Or will infections continue to increase?
Click to expand...
The weekly report IS put out by the CDC. If they tested the mild cases the exploding figures would be MUCH higher.

The virus really doesn't care about CDC press releases or weekly reports.

On THURSDAY the CDC said rates were declining in many areas. That was utter nonsense. It is the reporting that is declining (especially for schools where there are 100's of cases, but just a few , if any tests).
 
NY, NY flu level far above the baseline

NY, NY flu level far above the baseline

PDF of CDC Weekly Flu Report

The PDF version of the weekly flu report has some graphs not in the web version. It shows that even though the nation is below the "baseline" level of flu, one region is massively above it (the NY / NJ region), another is above the baseline, and two of the regions are either at or nearly at baseline. That is 4 of 10 regions.
 
Activity down in 4 of 10

Activity down in 4 of 10

According to the graphs in the PDF version of the CDC's data, flu (ILI) decreased in 4 of 10 regions.
 
Re: Activity down in 4 of 10

Re: Activity down in 4 of 10

Siegfried X said:
According to the graphs in the PDF version of the CDC's data, flu (ILI) decreased in 4 of 10 regions.
Click to expand...
The CDC said that swine H1N1 (aka novel H1N1) was declining (while knowing that they told states to reduce testing of mild cases and limited test kits).

ILI is much broader than swine H1N1 and flu season in the US is OVER, so ILI doesn't say mich about swine H1N1. If fact usually there is no week 21 weekly report because the seasonal flu (and other ILI) are so low at this time of year.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
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