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Swine flu to hit 40,000
Last updated 05:00 13/06/2009
Doctors predict 40,000 Cantabrians will get swine flu in the worst week of the pandemic.
Two children are the South Island's latest confirmed cases as Canterbury business leaders warn that a pandemic could be the "straw that breaks the camel's back" of an already depressed New Zealand economy.
The Canterbury District Health Board said last night that two Christchurch boys, aged 4 and 8, had been confirmed with influenza A (H1N1).
They caught swine flu from a family member who had returned to Christchurch from a trip to Australia but had not contacted anyone about feeling unwell.
The boys had "unpleasant symptoms of influenza but are not seriously unwell", Canterbury Medical Officer of Health Dr Ramon Pink said.
The four-year-old attended Tino E Tasi preschool in the Christchurch suburb of Wainoni while contagious, forcing 40 other children at the centre to be put in isolation at home. The eight-year-old had not gone to school.
The boys' 13-year-old brother, who has flu symptoms and will find out today if he has swine flu, goes to the South Island's largest school, Burnside High. As a precaution, 40 pupils and five teachers have been put in isolation at home.
Burnside principal Ron Noordijk said the school identified every pupil and staff member the 13-year-old boy had been in contact with after being notified by the health board at 2.50pm yesterday.
Test results expected today would give the students the all-clear or confirm that they must stay at home for three days and take a course of Tamiflu, he said.
Pupils were required by the health board to stay away from Saturday sport, Noordijk said.
"There will be an awful lot of people who are at home who don't need to be, but the sentiments echoed by many of the parents as I spoke to them was better safe than sorry," he said.
The World Health Organisation said yesterday that swine flu had reached pandemic level 6, its highest phase, meaning there is global spread of the virus.
Health Minister Tony Ryall said yesterday that the "inevitable" swine flu pandemic was expected to last between 18 and 24 months and could affect up to one million New Zealanders.
Every week the spread could be delayed during winter meant less strain on hospitals and would give people more time to prepare, he said.
Health board chief medical officer Nigel Millar told yesterday's board meeting that in a worst-case scenario, about 30 per cent of the Canterbury population would get swine flu in an eight-week period of intense infection.
In the worst week of the pandemic, an estimated 40,000 people would have swine flu, he said.
The virus was very infectious and it was only a matter of time before it reached pandemic levels, Millar said.
"We never expected to reach this stage [six weeks after the first case in New Zealand] without community spread," he said.
"The current situation can't carry on for much longer as there are about 1000 people flying in from America and more from Australia every week."
Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend said there would be major staff shortages in a swine flu pandemic.
Employers would lose more than staff members who caught swine flu, with parents having to look after children if schools closed and others in quarantine after possible exposure.
"It will have an impact on growth. We have a lot of companies that are quite vulnerable," he said.
"If the flu has an impact on economic activity, we run the risk of it being the straw that breaks the camel's back."
He said companies should exercise common sense when deciding whether staff members returning from abroad should stay away from work.
"Thousands of people are returning to New Zealand from abroad every day. If they all took four days off work, we would be in big trouble," he said.
Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker said Civil Defence managers were looking for volunteers to provide assistance and information in the event of a pandemic. "This is exactly the time when neighbours and neighbourhoods count. We all have a responsibility to keep an eye on those around us, particularly the vulnerable elderly," he said.
FLU GEAR FOR THE NEW YEAR
Swine-flu precautions have been taken for Matariki, the Maori New Year, in Christchurch next week.
A stockpile of face masks, protective gloves and hand sanitisers will be available as hundreds of children pass through Christchurch's Nga Hau E Wha National Marae over the next two weeks as part of the celebrations.
Linda Ngata, of Manaaki Sounds Trust, said the precautions would make everyone safe at the celebrations.
"We have a duty of care towards everyone: the whanau, our workers and volunteers, and the community while they are on site at the marae," she said.
...cont.
Swine flu to hit 40,000
Last updated 05:00 13/06/2009
Doctors predict 40,000 Cantabrians will get swine flu in the worst week of the pandemic.
Two children are the South Island's latest confirmed cases as Canterbury business leaders warn that a pandemic could be the "straw that breaks the camel's back" of an already depressed New Zealand economy.
The Canterbury District Health Board said last night that two Christchurch boys, aged 4 and 8, had been confirmed with influenza A (H1N1).
They caught swine flu from a family member who had returned to Christchurch from a trip to Australia but had not contacted anyone about feeling unwell.
The boys had "unpleasant symptoms of influenza but are not seriously unwell", Canterbury Medical Officer of Health Dr Ramon Pink said.
The four-year-old attended Tino E Tasi preschool in the Christchurch suburb of Wainoni while contagious, forcing 40 other children at the centre to be put in isolation at home. The eight-year-old had not gone to school.
The boys' 13-year-old brother, who has flu symptoms and will find out today if he has swine flu, goes to the South Island's largest school, Burnside High. As a precaution, 40 pupils and five teachers have been put in isolation at home.
Burnside principal Ron Noordijk said the school identified every pupil and staff member the 13-year-old boy had been in contact with after being notified by the health board at 2.50pm yesterday.
Test results expected today would give the students the all-clear or confirm that they must stay at home for three days and take a course of Tamiflu, he said.
Pupils were required by the health board to stay away from Saturday sport, Noordijk said.
"There will be an awful lot of people who are at home who don't need to be, but the sentiments echoed by many of the parents as I spoke to them was better safe than sorry," he said.
The World Health Organisation said yesterday that swine flu had reached pandemic level 6, its highest phase, meaning there is global spread of the virus.
Health Minister Tony Ryall said yesterday that the "inevitable" swine flu pandemic was expected to last between 18 and 24 months and could affect up to one million New Zealanders.
Every week the spread could be delayed during winter meant less strain on hospitals and would give people more time to prepare, he said.
Health board chief medical officer Nigel Millar told yesterday's board meeting that in a worst-case scenario, about 30 per cent of the Canterbury population would get swine flu in an eight-week period of intense infection.
In the worst week of the pandemic, an estimated 40,000 people would have swine flu, he said.
The virus was very infectious and it was only a matter of time before it reached pandemic levels, Millar said.
"We never expected to reach this stage [six weeks after the first case in New Zealand] without community spread," he said.
"The current situation can't carry on for much longer as there are about 1000 people flying in from America and more from Australia every week."
Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend said there would be major staff shortages in a swine flu pandemic.
Employers would lose more than staff members who caught swine flu, with parents having to look after children if schools closed and others in quarantine after possible exposure.
"It will have an impact on growth. We have a lot of companies that are quite vulnerable," he said.
"If the flu has an impact on economic activity, we run the risk of it being the straw that breaks the camel's back."
He said companies should exercise common sense when deciding whether staff members returning from abroad should stay away from work.
"Thousands of people are returning to New Zealand from abroad every day. If they all took four days off work, we would be in big trouble," he said.
Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker said Civil Defence managers were looking for volunteers to provide assistance and information in the event of a pandemic. "This is exactly the time when neighbours and neighbourhoods count. We all have a responsibility to keep an eye on those around us, particularly the vulnerable elderly," he said.
FLU GEAR FOR THE NEW YEAR
Swine-flu precautions have been taken for Matariki, the Maori New Year, in Christchurch next week.
A stockpile of face masks, protective gloves and hand sanitisers will be available as hundreds of children pass through Christchurch's Nga Hau E Wha National Marae over the next two weeks as part of the celebrations.
Linda Ngata, of Manaaki Sounds Trust, said the precautions would make everyone safe at the celebrations.
"We have a duty of care towards everyone: the whanau, our workers and volunteers, and the community while they are on site at the marae," she said.
...cont.