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Swine Flu Infects 22 Million, Kills 3,900 in U.S.

sharon sanders

Editor-in-Chief & President
By Tom Randall

data


Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu cases in the U.S. are rising at the fastest pace for influenza in four decades, infecting 22 million people and killing 3,900 in the first six months of the pandemic, according to revised estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The death total is about a fourfold increase from previous tallies and the first specific estimate of total swine flu infections. U.S. health authorities are seeking a more accurate model to analyze the effects of the pandemic flu, also known as H1N1, Anne Schuchat, director of the Atlanta-based CDC’s Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said today.

Swine flu, first reported in April, is spreading at unprecedented rates for this time of year, Schuchat said. The disease puts young people, pregnant women and those with health conditions such as asthma and diabetes at greatest risk, with about 90 percent of the deaths of people younger than 64. Supply of the vaccine to prevent the disease has fallen far short of heath authorities estimates.

The previous reporting system was “potentially giving an incomplete story of the pandemic,” Schuchat said in a conference call with reporters. “What we’re really trying to do is give a bigger picture.”

New Estimate

The toll published by the CDC before today was based on confirmed cases in 10 states, while the new numbers extrapolate nationwide tallies from the same surveillance system. The estimates will be updated every three to four weeks and don’t include infections since Oct. 17, when swine flu has circulated at its highest rate, Schuchat said.
“We don’t think things have changed from last week to this week,” Schuchat said of the disease.





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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aeE_7PAb6.Kw
 
Re: Swine Flu Infects 22 Million, Kills 3,900 in U.S.

So, that would mean that up to now the death rate is .017%. Seasonal flu has a death rate of less than 0.1%. H1N1 is, at this guess-juncture, killing less than the seasonal flu.

In a new study out of Mexico, "Infants and people aged 10-19 were at increased risk of infection, but disease was more severe in infants and those older than 60 years than in other age groups". http://thechronicleherald.ca/News/1152356.html
 
Re: Swine Flu Infects 22 Million, Kills 3,900 in U.S.

So, that would mean that up to now the death rate is .017%. Seasonal flu has a death rate of less than 0.1%. H1N1 is, at this guess-juncture, killing less than the seasonal flu.
http://thechronicleherald.ca/News/1152356.html[/url]

So forgetting the US for the moment how do you fit the situation in Ukraine say into your picture?

What seems fair to me to say is that in most cases swine flu behaves like seasonal but especially in the under 65s it seems far more likely to cause serious illness and hospital admission than seasonal flu. If the CDC really believed as you suggest (and they have all the best data) surely they would say so.

What will be interesting to see though is how the death rates compare over the entire season if seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 are totally pushed out of circulation in the northern hemisphere.

Keep in mind that almost everything you have seen up to now in the US has occurred at a time of year when you expect virtually no lab confirmed influenza cases let alone deaths. That swine flu has managed to progress like it has out of season is remarkable - the true flu season is just beginning.
 
Re: Swine Flu Infects 22 Million, Kills 3,900 in U.S.

The primary groups for death were:
25-49 yo 41%
50-64 yo 24%
0-4 yo 2%
5-24 yo 16%

That is 65% of deaths for 25-64 yo.
So, yes, something is wrong with the prediction epidemiology.

The four pillars of Focus in Pandemic are:
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS- fair success
MASS VACCINATION- huge failure due to process
COMMUNITY MITIGATION- great success in schools and business
COMMUNICATION- horrible failure to the point that some community groups are making noise like they feel they are the victim of "chicken little"
 
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