Swine flu could kill 9,375 people in county
Friday, July 10, 2009, 06:30
Swine flu could wipe out more than nine thousand Lincolnshire people this winter.
Every winter seasonal flu takes its toll killing an average of 300 county people.
But health bosses will face their greatest challenge yet should the swine flu virus mutate and sweep through Lincolnshire.
Yesterday an extended family temporarily confined to a home in Lincoln's Hartsholme estate daubed a red cross on their door to warn visitors to stay away for their own protection.
Among the infected family members is five-week old baby Tristan Hinson who spent Tuesday night in isolation on Lincoln County Hospital's Ruston ward.
Tristan's aunt Kelly Betts (32) said: "All you hear about swine flu is about the people who are dying, which is a worry when you have a five-week-old baby with it."
NHS Lincolnshire is preparing for the worst case scenario, which will see half the population infected with the H1N1 virus resulting in up to 9,375 deaths.
This will make unprecedented demands on the health service resulting in 106,875 patients requiring advice from their GP.
United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust is planning for approximately 18,563 people turning up at the county's A&E department.
A possible 15,000 patients may need to be hospitalised during an outbreak.
Dr Mandy Bretman,
director of public health and partnerships, NHS Lincolnshire, said:
"The swine flu virus could change and become more virulent in the autumn and winter when the seasonal flu virus is also circulating.
"Flu viruses are difficult to predict.
"The figures we use are derived from the national assumption for a worst case scenario based on previous pandemics."
For more on the pandemic predictions, see Friday's Echo.
Friday, July 10, 2009, 06:30
Swine flu could wipe out more than nine thousand Lincolnshire people this winter.
Every winter seasonal flu takes its toll killing an average of 300 county people.
But health bosses will face their greatest challenge yet should the swine flu virus mutate and sweep through Lincolnshire.
Yesterday an extended family temporarily confined to a home in Lincoln's Hartsholme estate daubed a red cross on their door to warn visitors to stay away for their own protection.
Among the infected family members is five-week old baby Tristan Hinson who spent Tuesday night in isolation on Lincoln County Hospital's Ruston ward.
Tristan's aunt Kelly Betts (32) said: "All you hear about swine flu is about the people who are dying, which is a worry when you have a five-week-old baby with it."
NHS Lincolnshire is preparing for the worst case scenario, which will see half the population infected with the H1N1 virus resulting in up to 9,375 deaths.
This will make unprecedented demands on the health service resulting in 106,875 patients requiring advice from their GP.
United Lincolnshire Hospitals Trust is planning for approximately 18,563 people turning up at the county's A&E department.
A possible 15,000 patients may need to be hospitalised during an outbreak.
Dr Mandy Bretman,
director of public health and partnerships, NHS Lincolnshire, said:
"The swine flu virus could change and become more virulent in the autumn and winter when the seasonal flu virus is also circulating.
"Flu viruses are difficult to predict.
"The figures we use are derived from the national assumption for a worst case scenario based on previous pandemics."
For more on the pandemic predictions, see Friday's Echo.