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Swine flu 'to kill 40 Britons a day by end of summer'
By Daniel Martin
Last updated at 9:36 AM on 03rd July 2009
Swine flu could kill more than 40 Britons a day by the end of the summer, chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson said last night.
So far 7,500 have been infected with swine flu, of which three have died.
But the Government predicts that by the end of August there will be 100,000 new cases a day. If the same one-in-2,500 rate holds, there would be 40 deaths a day.
Andy Burnham issues swine flu predictions in the Commons
Warning: Health Secretary Andy Burnham issues the swine flu predictions in the Commons
Sir Liam said the predictions were scientific, but warned the actual figure could be lower - or even higher.
He spoke after Health Secretary Andy Burnham put Britain on epidemic alert.
Under new rules announced yesterday, anyone with flu symptoms is advised not to go to their GP for fear of spreading the disease. Instead they should quarantine themselves in their home.
They will have to nominate a 'flu friend' to pick up antiviral medicine from drug collection points, and then post them through the letterbox.
Sir Liam also warned the public to avoid panic-buying 'counterfeit' anti-swine flu drugs online.
He said there was no need for people to resort to the internet to self-medicate amid fears over the spread.
He said: 'People shouldn't buy Tamiflu from the internet. We have got a massive stockpile in this country and everybody can have access to it through the National Health Service.'
His comments came after Mr Burnham warned that the antiviral drug Tamiflu could be rationed to those at greatest risk within a matter of weeks as millions of new cases emerge.
For the first time, GPs have been given discretion to refuse the drug to those with mild cases of flu.
The Government was forced to put emergency measures in place after admitting the virus was now out of control.
Sameerah Ahmad
Tragic: Sameerah Ahmad, who died on Friday, is one of three killed in the UK by swine flu
Mr Burnham said he had to 'hope for the best and prepare for the worst.'
Experts warned that the outbreak could last for more than five years, and that deaths of healthy young people at some point were inevitable.
In a worrying development last night, details emerged of a second case of swine flu becoming resistant to Tamiflu.
Officials in Japan said a patient was not responding to the antiviral, which is one of the main defences against the disease.
The first such case was reported in Denmark last week.
Mr Burnham told MPs that the country was changing its approach because it was now impossible to prevent further spread of the disease.
Yesterday, there were 7,447 laboratory-confirmed cases across the UK.
The total has doubled in a week, and three Britons have died - although they were all already seriously ill.
Mr Burnham said: 'We have always known it would be impossible to contain the virus indefinitely.
'Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August. The pressure on the system is such that it is the right time to take this step.'
This means Britain is leaving the 'outbreak management' phase and upgrading to the more drastic 'treatment' phase of pandemic control.
Swine flu vaccine being prepared in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia
Swine flu vaccine, pictured being prepared this week in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia, will be in the UK next month, Mr Burnham said
Sir Liam was asked on BBC2's Newsnight programme whether 40 patients a day would be dying by the end of August. He said: 'Well we can't be sure about the death rate nor can we be sure about the number of cases that will be occurring by the end of August but these are scientific projections - the numbers could be lower than this - they could be even higher.'
Tory health spokesman Andrew Lansley questioned whether the NHS would be able to cope. In response, Mr Burnham said plans were in place to allow for the cancellation of elective surgery as ' circumstances require'. If the outbreakgets worse, people will be able to download Tamiflu vouchers from the web.
Scientists have warned ministers of the danger that the flu could develop resistance if too many use Tamiflu. Several million doses of a vaccine will be available by the end of August, rising to 60million at the end of December.
If there is a shortage, jabs will be given first to those at risk - pensioners, the under-fives, pregnant women and those with health problems - and to NHS workers.
flu
'Now we're entering the most dangerous phase'
Under the Government's pandemic action plan, there are three levels of alert for a serious flu outbreak. Yesterday the Health Secretary announced the UK would now enter the third, most serious, phase.
The first stage is Containment, which Britain entered when the first cases, a honeymoon couple, were confirmed in Scotland on April 27.
The priority is to stop the disease spreading as much as possible. Everyone with suspected swine flu has their diagnosis confirmed by a lab report, and is given the anti-viral drug Tamiflu. All recent contacts of infected people are traced and also given Tamiflu. Schools are closed if teachers or pupils contract the disease.
The second stage is Outbreak Management, which the country entered on June 25.
Action against swine flu was stepped up in three 'hot spot' areas - London, Glasgow and the West Midlands - where it was no longer possible to contain its spread.
In the hot spots, suspected cases were no longer sent for lab testing, with GPs doing the diagnosis, and people with swine flu got Tamiflu, but contacts did not as a matter of course. Schools in the hotspots were no longer automatically closed.
The third stage, which the whole country entered yesterday, is called Treatment.
GPs will be given the discretion to hold back Tamiflu to those with minor symptoms - and in a few weeks it may be rationed to at-risk groups. Vaccines will begin to be delivered once the first batches arrive in August.
Swine flu 'to kill 40 Britons a day by end of summer'
By Daniel Martin
Last updated at 9:36 AM on 03rd July 2009
Swine flu could kill more than 40 Britons a day by the end of the summer, chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson said last night.
So far 7,500 have been infected with swine flu, of which three have died.
But the Government predicts that by the end of August there will be 100,000 new cases a day. If the same one-in-2,500 rate holds, there would be 40 deaths a day.
Andy Burnham issues swine flu predictions in the Commons
Warning: Health Secretary Andy Burnham issues the swine flu predictions in the Commons
Sir Liam said the predictions were scientific, but warned the actual figure could be lower - or even higher.
He spoke after Health Secretary Andy Burnham put Britain on epidemic alert.
Under new rules announced yesterday, anyone with flu symptoms is advised not to go to their GP for fear of spreading the disease. Instead they should quarantine themselves in their home.
They will have to nominate a 'flu friend' to pick up antiviral medicine from drug collection points, and then post them through the letterbox.
Sir Liam also warned the public to avoid panic-buying 'counterfeit' anti-swine flu drugs online.
He said there was no need for people to resort to the internet to self-medicate amid fears over the spread.
He said: 'People shouldn't buy Tamiflu from the internet. We have got a massive stockpile in this country and everybody can have access to it through the National Health Service.'
His comments came after Mr Burnham warned that the antiviral drug Tamiflu could be rationed to those at greatest risk within a matter of weeks as millions of new cases emerge.
For the first time, GPs have been given discretion to refuse the drug to those with mild cases of flu.
The Government was forced to put emergency measures in place after admitting the virus was now out of control.
Sameerah Ahmad
Tragic: Sameerah Ahmad, who died on Friday, is one of three killed in the UK by swine flu
Mr Burnham said he had to 'hope for the best and prepare for the worst.'
Experts warned that the outbreak could last for more than five years, and that deaths of healthy young people at some point were inevitable.
In a worrying development last night, details emerged of a second case of swine flu becoming resistant to Tamiflu.
Officials in Japan said a patient was not responding to the antiviral, which is one of the main defences against the disease.
The first such case was reported in Denmark last week.
Mr Burnham told MPs that the country was changing its approach because it was now impossible to prevent further spread of the disease.
Yesterday, there were 7,447 laboratory-confirmed cases across the UK.
The total has doubled in a week, and three Britons have died - although they were all already seriously ill.
Mr Burnham said: 'We have always known it would be impossible to contain the virus indefinitely.
'Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August. The pressure on the system is such that it is the right time to take this step.'
This means Britain is leaving the 'outbreak management' phase and upgrading to the more drastic 'treatment' phase of pandemic control.
Swine flu vaccine being prepared in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia
Swine flu vaccine, pictured being prepared this week in a laboratory in Brisbane, Australia, will be in the UK next month, Mr Burnham said
Sir Liam was asked on BBC2's Newsnight programme whether 40 patients a day would be dying by the end of August. He said: 'Well we can't be sure about the death rate nor can we be sure about the number of cases that will be occurring by the end of August but these are scientific projections - the numbers could be lower than this - they could be even higher.'
Tory health spokesman Andrew Lansley questioned whether the NHS would be able to cope. In response, Mr Burnham said plans were in place to allow for the cancellation of elective surgery as ' circumstances require'. If the outbreakgets worse, people will be able to download Tamiflu vouchers from the web.
Scientists have warned ministers of the danger that the flu could develop resistance if too many use Tamiflu. Several million doses of a vaccine will be available by the end of August, rising to 60million at the end of December.
If there is a shortage, jabs will be given first to those at risk - pensioners, the under-fives, pregnant women and those with health problems - and to NHS workers.
flu
'Now we're entering the most dangerous phase'
Under the Government's pandemic action plan, there are three levels of alert for a serious flu outbreak. Yesterday the Health Secretary announced the UK would now enter the third, most serious, phase.
The first stage is Containment, which Britain entered when the first cases, a honeymoon couple, were confirmed in Scotland on April 27.
The priority is to stop the disease spreading as much as possible. Everyone with suspected swine flu has their diagnosis confirmed by a lab report, and is given the anti-viral drug Tamiflu. All recent contacts of infected people are traced and also given Tamiflu. Schools are closed if teachers or pupils contract the disease.
The second stage is Outbreak Management, which the country entered on June 25.
Action against swine flu was stepped up in three 'hot spot' areas - London, Glasgow and the West Midlands - where it was no longer possible to contain its spread.
In the hot spots, suspected cases were no longer sent for lab testing, with GPs doing the diagnosis, and people with swine flu got Tamiflu, but contacts did not as a matter of course. Schools in the hotspots were no longer automatically closed.
The third stage, which the whole country entered yesterday, is called Treatment.
GPs will be given the discretion to hold back Tamiflu to those with minor symptoms - and in a few weeks it may be rationed to at-risk groups. Vaccines will begin to be delivered once the first batches arrive in August.
