Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
December 9, 2009
Swine flu could be epidemic in January
by CAITLIN MULLEN
SANFORD ? The third and potentially strongest wave of the H1N1 flu virus is expected in January and it could become an epidemic in Lee County, according to Howard Surface.
Surface, director of the Lee County Health Department, spoke to a small group Monday about the H1N1 outlook in Lee County at Chef Paul?s for a Sanford Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy luncheon.
Surface said 25 states are currently reporting widespread H1N1 activity, down from about 48 a month ago. North Carolina and Virginia are on that list; South Carolina is not.
Right now, the health department believes anyone with flu-like symptoms has H1N1, Surface said. Consistently, about 99 percent of cases tested at H1N1.
?Anything you get that sounds or looks or walks or talks like the flu, it?s gonna be H1N1,? he said.
He also mentioned that the virus is mostly attacking the younger crowd. The average age of those with a confirmed case is 16; the oldest is 32. And it?s hit ages 6-10 hard.
?I don?t need to worry about H1N1. It?s a disease of young people,? he said.
One of Surface?s main concerns is the number of H1N1 cases in the schools. If the rate is 15-20 percent, ?I need to know about it,? Surface said. But right now, data is right around 12 percent, he said.
?We probably don?t have an epidemic in this county, but we may get close to one in January,? he said. The third wave is predicted in January, which makes sense because it hits when it?s cold, he added.
?The best bet is there will be another wave coming. The flu peaks in January and February,? and generally lasts 6-8 weeks, said Cathy Panozzo, graduate student at UNC-Chapel Hill and consultant for the health department, who joined Surface for the discussion.
The health department currently has 1,500-1,700 doses, Surface said, and they?ve administered very few thus far this season, relative to the population of Lee County. He said he?s not sure why so few people have taken advantage of the free vaccine.
?I?m surprised,? he said, adding that, on a recent day, the health department only saw 100 people come for the flu shot. ?We could?ve handled 1,000. ... It?s not a national emergency, but there?s not a lot of apprehension about it.?
The core groups that are most susceptible to the virus are pregnant women, young children, caretakers of young children and those who work in health care environments, Surface said.
But the health department will give the flu shot to anyone that would like it. He expects they have enough right now to get through December.
?My goal every day is to run out of the vaccine,? he said. ?We haven?t turned down a person yet, unless they?ve shown up after the clinic has closed. But we tell them to come back the next day.?
Many people who have come for the shot have consulted the health department about their decision, Surface said. But it?s a personal choice.
?We are here to administer the shot. ... You make that decision. It?s not a mandated shot. I think that?s the part that confuses people,? he said.
While the fear of avian flu, or H5N1, may arise, it?s unlikely that it will spread to the U.S., she added.
?H5N1 is still kind of isolated to poultry workers and hasn?t hit this country,? Panozzo said. ?It?s not spreading person-to-person; it?s people handling poultry. The virus going around now figured out a way to spread person-to-person without that contact. H5N1 hasn?t figured that out yet.?
But if H1N1 and H5N1 did meet and mutate, Surface said it would make the country?s economic crisis ?seem like a Sunday school picnic.?
?The mortality rate is 60-70 percent? for H5N1, Surface said. ?We don?t want that marriage.?
http://sanfordherald.com/pages/full...e epidemic in January&instance=homesecondleft
Swine flu could be epidemic in January
by CAITLIN MULLEN
SANFORD ? The third and potentially strongest wave of the H1N1 flu virus is expected in January and it could become an epidemic in Lee County, according to Howard Surface.
Surface, director of the Lee County Health Department, spoke to a small group Monday about the H1N1 outlook in Lee County at Chef Paul?s for a Sanford Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy luncheon.
Surface said 25 states are currently reporting widespread H1N1 activity, down from about 48 a month ago. North Carolina and Virginia are on that list; South Carolina is not.
Right now, the health department believes anyone with flu-like symptoms has H1N1, Surface said. Consistently, about 99 percent of cases tested at H1N1.
?Anything you get that sounds or looks or walks or talks like the flu, it?s gonna be H1N1,? he said.
He also mentioned that the virus is mostly attacking the younger crowd. The average age of those with a confirmed case is 16; the oldest is 32. And it?s hit ages 6-10 hard.
?I don?t need to worry about H1N1. It?s a disease of young people,? he said.
One of Surface?s main concerns is the number of H1N1 cases in the schools. If the rate is 15-20 percent, ?I need to know about it,? Surface said. But right now, data is right around 12 percent, he said.
?We probably don?t have an epidemic in this county, but we may get close to one in January,? he said. The third wave is predicted in January, which makes sense because it hits when it?s cold, he added.
?The best bet is there will be another wave coming. The flu peaks in January and February,? and generally lasts 6-8 weeks, said Cathy Panozzo, graduate student at UNC-Chapel Hill and consultant for the health department, who joined Surface for the discussion.
The health department currently has 1,500-1,700 doses, Surface said, and they?ve administered very few thus far this season, relative to the population of Lee County. He said he?s not sure why so few people have taken advantage of the free vaccine.
?I?m surprised,? he said, adding that, on a recent day, the health department only saw 100 people come for the flu shot. ?We could?ve handled 1,000. ... It?s not a national emergency, but there?s not a lot of apprehension about it.?
The core groups that are most susceptible to the virus are pregnant women, young children, caretakers of young children and those who work in health care environments, Surface said.
But the health department will give the flu shot to anyone that would like it. He expects they have enough right now to get through December.
?My goal every day is to run out of the vaccine,? he said. ?We haven?t turned down a person yet, unless they?ve shown up after the clinic has closed. But we tell them to come back the next day.?
Many people who have come for the shot have consulted the health department about their decision, Surface said. But it?s a personal choice.
?We are here to administer the shot. ... You make that decision. It?s not a mandated shot. I think that?s the part that confuses people,? he said.
While the fear of avian flu, or H5N1, may arise, it?s unlikely that it will spread to the U.S., she added.
?H5N1 is still kind of isolated to poultry workers and hasn?t hit this country,? Panozzo said. ?It?s not spreading person-to-person; it?s people handling poultry. The virus going around now figured out a way to spread person-to-person without that contact. H5N1 hasn?t figured that out yet.?
But if H1N1 and H5N1 did meet and mutate, Surface said it would make the country?s economic crisis ?seem like a Sunday school picnic.?
?The mortality rate is 60-70 percent? for H5N1, Surface said. ?We don?t want that marriage.?
http://sanfordherald.com/pages/full...e epidemic in January&instance=homesecondleft
